Let me state this to you.
Monthly TA is neutral and on the verge of turning up again.
Weekly TA is in uptrend, though a bit Overbought.
Daily TA has shown its tendency to stay UP with shallow corrections and it has not closed below "Day low ema" for more than 30-35 days.
Using oscillators to trade works well in a sideways market like I have shown with 9-rsi chart in yesterday's EOD post. In a trending market, you use them to spot divergences alone. Even the divergences do not give much gains if it is in a "3rd wave".
There were many +ve divergences in stocks and I posted nearly 14 stocks in my "Stockwealth" blog and all of them have given quite a lot of returns in short term. Evren the -ve divergence stocks such as Infosys, India cement have fallen.
It is not difficult to spot these divergences. But view the overall market and when you see many such divergences, then your confidence and conviction levels will be high to take a trade in them.
With regard to the chart(Shown below) that you have put up, a divergence that takes 6 months & more may be viewed as a running correction or a 3rd wave in progress. Since that is a day chart, I would prefer a divergence that takes 10 to 15 days to develop (+/-5) for trading purposes and anything more than that loses its relevance..
I hope this clear your doubts. More exposure to the market alone can guide us better as markets keep evolving and we need to learn constantly.
34 comments:
Shall we cross 5400 today? I hope its not another day of 20 points movement around 5350!
Good Morning all!
Good Morning ilango sir and other blogmates
-arpit
Good Morning Sir.
How are you? I am still travelling. Was there any correlation between the week end story and the week end guest? May be the "Feast" part !!!
Hello to All.
Gm Illango sir & all blogmates.
GM All.
Dear Ilango,
Comment shows 6 but despite refreshing,only Dear Paresh's comment is visible.where are the other 5 comments?
sir why did u write monthly ta neutral, it is also above 5hema. sir what other factors did u consider????
US Futures Update:
SPX futures hit 1188 in yesterday's trading.
From here a drop to 1169 is most likely.Trend is still up with 1210 to be seen in may.1147 on watch for reversal.
Value for today : 1186.5-1185.5-1181.5
Currently at 1183.75.
Test...
Comments issue ? Cannot see comments - can see only the first one ( paresh ) ?
gd
It shows..11 comments but I could see only one of "Paresh"..
I will be updating the charts & Tech table @ stockwealth blog
http://wealthinnifty.blogspot.com/
gm Ilango & Mates
Good morning ilango sir,
Sir the total posts show as 11 comments, but i am able to view only one comment How to rectify?
sir i have observed that in 3 instances 26 12 daily macd has bounced from 9 ema in past year. it has given min 150 points . it has done it again on 1-2 april.
gm all
hi
17/17 comments visible
Dear Ilango sir and Others,
I can see all of your comments..
I too had similar problems earlier try to restart your system once and delete all cookies and temp files from your systems once..
Thanks,
Ramesh.
@ilango sir,
comments issue looks resolved.
@piyush,
you avoided whipsaw just looking at macd. So you trade when there is a bounce ?
gd
Now the comments are showing. We value Ilango's views so much that if comments are not showing, get a bit tense...:)
Is it just me, but the daily/weekly Bollinger is pointing to a drop towards the lower band soon ? Or could this just continue ? Alsi is RSI in -ve div in daily ?
gd
Hi..GM to all,
It looks the problem resolved itself.
:)
Sir & family
GM
@piyush
r u takng 26 l and 12 s with signal period of 9?
if so thn guide me hw 2 look historically(last year as compared to april 1,2)
ths wl be really helpful paji:)
Hi..Rajagopal,
Firstly, thank you very much for updating your file and sending it across inspite of travelling away..
This "Prodigal son's" return is quite touching for the "Mother". She did some "fatted chicken" for him & his entire "gang of friends".
well manu paaji,
parameters r mentioned by u r same as i used, dates are 30/11, 20/10, 7/9 but before using it let master verify it at his leisure. it is in daily no hurry.
@golfdude just an observation, nothing more
@manu and @piyush,
if you take 12,26,9 it might have worked out this year - one down cycle in jan/feb and then one up in feb/mar ( daily charts ). But if you go back to nov09-jan10, you could have easily been whipsawed and late entry also. Just MACD crossover is never recommended. It is usually used as a final confirmation after other indicators show direction. My learning..
gd
GM Ilango sir, as i exited conservative longs yesterday. I think i sud not enter it again as this is the last upwave. I sud short at break of 5315 only now or near channel top near 5400. M i learning it right?
Thanks
@ piyush pa ji..
thnx
@ sir ji
throw some light on this
as if v r able 2 get ths thn the big down circuits must also be traceable..(y rakesh jhunjhunwala has more brain to short nifty 10000 lots one day aftr diwali..(infrm frm source wrkng in his office-senior one)
y nt us..may 10000 lots as illango family together:)
@piyush,
if it is just an observation, then somebody did a study that said you could have made 60 crores starting from 10,000 rupees just trading that nifty crossover in 5 years ( 2005-2010 ). Again this was in hindsight. If you can win everytime in the market, then you can retire in a couple of years...:)
gd
@golfdude
thnx..whch place u play golf:)
@ Manu,
Anyone could do what "Rakesh Jhunjhunwala" did. We shorted Nifty a day before Diwali. SOme consistent work is all that matters.
Whatever Raakesh does is highlighted because of his stature but there are many in the markets who are winning consistently, quietly. Public follows mostly the media..
@ bizagra,
One could sell around 5395 to 5415..the channel top area as the short term looks stretched. Today's Pivot @ 5369 & Viren's VAH @ 5370 break only will confirm weakness.
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Dear Ilango,
God Bless Him and Mother.
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Taught one of my sys-engineer to use the software. Now he is asking what is the red and greet denote ? Hope I don't create a Frankenstein Monster.
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ROLTA is persued by FIIs since morning. Twice moved up and down. Please check.
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Kindly indicate on RIL and ABAN - Advisable Exits - holding from 987 and 1012 levels respectively.
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Hello to Manu(Sorry also),Piyush,RV9,Mok,Mynac,Viren,Satheesh,Babu,Arun and all friends. Miss you all.
Must catch the Bus now.
@golfdude,
simple macd crossover with after peak trough divergence/slant divergence can net u 1000 points a year after all whipsaws. these simple techniques work well.
u can get 2000% annual return in markets on ur trading capital. u also need to face huge drawdowns and sit patiently with it.( dont have such system but have read convincing articles about it)
rg sir,
we miss u too. hope u r having a nice time.
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