Retracement strategy, a must for traders.
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
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I 'll always be there for you. To make you feel that you're secured. And even if the rain is pouring hard and the sky is almost dark... -
5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ... -
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
29 comments:
Ilago sir,
Yes..i always keep your golden mantras in mind..like, “ SIT TIGHT” and ‘STAY LIGHT”..thanks for your blessings for successful trades
Today no positions..waiting for the action around channel top 5380-5400 to decide on the trade..
DEAR ILANGO,
AGAIN,PROBLEM IN COMMENT POSTING AND READING.SOMETHING IS GOING WRONG.THE PROBLEM HAS STARTED FROM LAST TWO DAYS.
Ilango sir and All,
GA.
@viren
hope u remember my views posted in shai blog sometime back reg Ministry trying to attack rupee movement and hassles going on...with expectation of credit policy becoming non-event pushing the nifty to take off stage..
@san, golfdude
reg crude oil price rise etc and market rise..
The rupee appreciation will take care of rise in crude prices and also inflationary expectations. Further the excess liquidity in the system will give room for RBI to work in a relaxed manner the main objective of inflation control. The excess liquidity will be taken out from the system through the government borrowing program. There was not much interest as they are long dated but now it will sail through smoothly without much pressure on interest rates...
My guess is FII action is based on solid assumptions and may stay here for sometime..
unless something drastic changes the entire equilibrium
sri
sir & family
GA
sir shld we book profits(half) n uni,suz,bajaj,tisco
or carry hedges of nifty puts
plz suggest ..as confused btwn stocks due 2 earning season and nifty due to channel top..
@sriganeshh
Q:Why are FII’s pouring in money in this range bound and overheated markets?
(They have poured approx. 20% of the total amount of FY 09-10 in the last quarter from 01/01/10 to 31/03/10 )
The answer lies in the returns the FII’s are getting in Indian markets.For that first we have to understand what is “S&P CNX Defty”
“Almost every institutional investor and off-shore fund enterprise with an equity exposure in India would like to have an instrument for measuring returns on their equity investment in dollar terms. To facilitate this, a new index the S&P CNX Defty-Dollar Denominated S&P CNX Nifty has been developed. S&P CNX Defty is S&P CNX Nifty, measured in dollars.”---NSE.
The Defty is a Performance indicator to foreign institutional investors, off-shore funds, etc and also it Provides an effective tool for hedging Indian equity exposure.
So let’s see the last quarter returns-
Nifty opened at 5200 on 04/01/10 and closed at 5249 on 31/03/10, just a gain of 49 points or 0.94%,so why would FII's pour in 21,000 crores for approx. 50 points ?.
Now lets check Defty ,It opened at 3865 and closed at 4046 in the same period,a gain of 181 points or 4.7%.
Thus the return as compared to Nifty are fabulous 5 times to our Dear FII’s.This magic is due to the exchange rate in which Dollar is weakening against Rupee.
We can conclude that with the weakening Dollar the FII’s are able to get fabulous returns in Indian markets and hence the influx of the Dollar. Market corrections will be bought in and only some big negative news/reversal of dollar carry trade will bring about major correction,(sub 5000 types.) till the dollar stabilizes at some point.
So ,Its time we should all think ‘Global’ while trading ‘Local’.
Thanks
aarvee,
Excellent analysis and input. " think ‘Global’ while trading ‘Local’" - good remark to be remembered always!!!
"Kattrathu Kaimann Alavu, Kallathathu Ulagalavu"!!!- i.e., "quantity learnt is just a handful of mud but TO BE LEARNT is as vast as the world" - becomes very true in case of this financial markets. But as Ilango sir says all is reflected in price - price - price!!!!
@RV9
thanks. U r right.
Further if they book forwards to match with their withdrawal timing, again u add small gain in the form of forward premia..
FII expect rupee to go around 42 by Dec 2010...
FII rupee expectation is really high hopes in Indian environment but still let us see...what happens
sri
@Avinash,
I remember when crude was touching maximum and people were projecting it touch 150 etc etc...in 2007, the rupee level at that time was around 43 i believe. From there, rupee has depreciated quite a bit with continous interest rate cuts and liquidity injections....now it is the time for rupee to appreciate ...first step is done with repo and reverse repo increase...it is slow but gradual process..
Interrelations dont work in percentage basis...if that is so easy, then everybody can predict and can become master of markets..
sri
@dear manu
dont get confused.unitech and suzlon long trade are excellent as per TA.
suzlon-first target met of 75.75(50ema).now can hold with s/l of 72(closing basis)for target 78(100 dma),if not already booked or can renenter above today's high.
unitech-target 79 s/l 73
can check my detailed postings for above at yeaterday's 'StockWealth' Blog
@manu
please have strict s/l on closing basis .
thnx arv..
i m a bit scared man..
dhandi lassi ka jala pani bhi phook phook ke sunghta hai..:)
like 2 hedge always may be samll..
@aarvee9,
didnt know about Defty. Do you know how one would invest in this from a brokerage abroad ? ie is there an ETF ?
Thx
gd
sir bajaj hind not able to cross 141 in todays trade till now is it gaining strenth ?
@avinash
just learning from Ilango sir since last six months,it is his greatness that he provides space in his blogs.All my so called analysis and observations are based on his methods as mentioned in "Always start trading with these" section of this blog.
Ilango sir,
Tatasteel is rising with huge volume. Anything significant??
GA All.
Satheesh:
Tata Steel Ltd, the world's No. 8 steelmaker by output, said on Tuesday its sales for the fiscal year ended on March 31 rose 18 percent from a year ago to 6.17 million tonnes
@ Satheesh,
Tata steel: A part booking here on "NEWS". It is quite clear, it is on its 5th wave..We need to check the sub waves for fine tuning further action.I will update it in today's file.
Ilango sir,
can we create Positional shorts @5380 NF or should wait for 5400 for better risk-reward or today it is not appropriate to initiate shorts?
Ilango sir,
tatasteel in 5th wave as per which timeframe? Hourly or daily? please clarify sir.
Hi..assortz,
This level is quite close to the channel top and Nifty could attempt another high too. One could sell @ 5385 - 5405 & hold it for 2-3 days for a target of 5280-5320. Have a SL of 5425.
@ Satheesh,
It is the 5th wave in weekly time frame...Labelled it so in the file. Now I need to fine tune the sub waves of this 5th wave.
Ilango sir wht u replied to assortz, does that mean ,traders who are holding conservative longs sud also exit? Plz clear.
hi..Bizagra,
I have suggested to "Part book" for the Conservative trade in the "PreMarket View"...
I expect a correction, may be a sideways one, to unfold soon. The trend remains "UP" and hence, Part booking.
Ilango sir thanks.
dear ilango i was shorted at 5330 yesterday, could i hold 2morrow?
Hi..Prakash,
So far Nifty future has held the VAH @ 5352. It may not break down anymore today.
New MP values for tomorrow to be posted by "Viren" will give additional cues.
As mentioned earlier, Nifty could still attempt another high but a correction is due from the channel top.
Dear Ilango
"" 3 cosecutive close above 5309 will take to 5566"" sir we have got two consecutive close above that yesterday 5366 and today obiously we will get close above that now will have to wait for tomorrows close I am 1000% sure it will touch 5566
This is strait 9th week of rally
9TH WEEK ON NOT OVER,WAIT TILL WEEK NOT OVER.1ST YOU HAVE TO KNOW ABOUT ANIRUDH SETHI THEN USED WORD 1000%.OTHERWISE YOU GOING TO BANKRUPT SOON..FII/HNI/DII ALL KNOW THIS LEVEL.SO WACTH PRESENT LEVEL...AS PER ME 7TH APRIL 1ST REVERSAL DATE.MARKET UP DUE TO RS AND $ MOVEMENT.CATCH 100 POINT TILL MONDAY.I AM 000000000000% SURE.
THNX
@naval,,,man r u following anirudh sethi i think,,,he was banned from sebi,,what u copy is from his site.
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