As I am not much of an option strategist, I would welcome opinions from those who have experience in option strategies. I have put them in a table below:
The corrective upmove can extend to 5280-5290 and the selling may emerge from there on.
But a firm close above 5275 may change the short term to "UP" again.
The tussle would be between 5240 to 5280.
22 comments:
Nifty VIX Calculation suggests a narrow range of 5235 to 5275 for 30th April 2010. It looks like a replay of today's trade.
dear I LANGO sir and others
these are the views i read some other website
and coincides with I LANGO sir s views
but i am not able to understand the technical language
"5225 will be EOD resistance go and short on bounce back with intraday stop loss of 5280 positional target will be 5050..............Trade will be closed if any day nifty closes above 5225 on EOD basis or 5280 on intraday basis."
kindly tell me
a. resistance i know, but what is EOD resistance
b. how is intraday stop loss concluded
c. how to know whether nifty is closed at some point on EOD basis
d. how to conclude that 5280 is taken over on intraday basis
thanks explaining
i know query is silly, but i am sillier, since i am a learner
thanking everybody
do expect an early and answer with complete explaination by a leaners view
r parekh r
Dear Ilango and mates...Good Evening
A few links to wrap up the day....
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:richard_rhodes_tradi
and
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/money/decisions.html
and
http://www.fx360.com/techAnalysis/chartPatterns.aspx
Hope it helps ppl here...
Cheers!!!
dear rochak
what u mentioned r the views of rajandran, www.marketcalls.in, he was conducting a study(research)for new strategies to trade mininifty.
according to that if any day nifty closes above 5225,then trade stands closed, and even in intraday if nifty crosses 5280 then trade stands closed, so what ur talking abt , that trade stands closed.
cheers and be happy, forget abt that.
Dear Dr Saurabh -
Always wondered how did an illiterate Valmiki convince so many learned ones to read Ramayan that he wrote!!! May be because it was on Ram ?
Added a small note on quantity as desired.
Initiated Longs in the following at EOD :
Scrip Name Target
BHEL 2530.58
CAIRN 314.42
HDFCBANK 2012.86
HLL 243.46
ONGC 1057.57
REL 1143.05
RPOWER 167.26
SBI 2323.49
TATAMOTORS 863.12
UNITECH 84.89
Doctor,
Regrets for mis-spelling your name in the file.
hi guys, for option buying follow the blog fiftypointsaday.blogspot.com, i am following that blog since a month for amazing results.
also dont forget to visit & use 955am.com, anilselarka.com, and equitybonanza.com.
for wonderful analysis of EW none like tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.com.
i hv stopped visiting other blogs than the above as i feel it was waste of time.
Sir,
I also don't have any option. But my guess is that there is a big "V" in your esteemed/good hearted reader's name - the acronym of his name must match an ex President of India ?
@ rg
misspell is not a problem and we know that u seldom misspell, if its there
its ok and im happy that atleast u have clarified my doubts, and i know when i start trading full time with stocks, then it will become my base sheet to trade, till then i expect u to keep improvingthis xl and providing us the guidance.:-)
thanx
@all
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_88fjmcdhjs8/S9mjT0TT0yI/AAAAAAAACNg/ax6aWudL2Zc/s1600/getImageFromSession.php.png
Hope this helps!
Cheers!!!
"So,the probabale Trading Range for the coming week,that will witness max.action can be 5220-5330".
The above conclusion of the Weekend Analysis came up well for this series ending week.
@RG
Acronym of Ex Prime Minister searching for that of Ex President, where none of that is to be found. :)
The Vix trade may have given skewed result today due to series settling dynamics.
Dear Ilango Sir & Blogmates
The MP Values for NS for 30/04/2010 is given below
===========
VAH= 5249
POC= 5239
VAL= 5230
===========
Thanks & Regards
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
Dear Ilango Sir,
Your reader’s Options Strategy will definitely work. I have done a few Options strategy trading in the past and the strategy as set out in the table looks perfect. The only problem is waiting – you buy 2 options (Call/Put) and sell 2 Options (Call/Put) and wait till the May expiry, and you are not even sure whether it is going to be 11,800 profit or 6,800 profit or 300 loss. I’m afraid it is a very dull trading. For one month you do nothing and end of the month if it is a loss, can you console yourself, well it is only 300 rupees loss after all!!
Hi AAR VEE - Asian batsmen play spinners off the hand. Others off the pitch. (Sunil Gavaskar).
That's why Indians could read a "Doosra" better.
Yes Vix Mix - atleast selected scripts stayed positive to great comfort.
Most Handsome politician - how Nancy Regan proudly held his hand walking along the red carpet !!!Greatest Loss to indian Economy.
Hai Ilango Sir and others
I am posting the Bank nifty weekly chart here.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/04/bank-nifty-technical-analysis.html
Thank You
Hi,
The option strategy is an iron butterfly one. If held till expiry max loss could be 3000 bucks and not 300. However, a few points, Implied vols have broken out of consolidation and we just had a flat expiry. Seasonality calls for a very volatile period in May, so all in all, we could witness a much bigger range than suggested by this strategy....
Re the option table, awesome.
Questions:
1. Suppose we have a really bad or good month -
say at 4600 or 5800. Suppose Japan defaults and Euro
is no more :).
2. Also any effect becaue of decay...
gd
Re the option table,
I am a beginner option writing question. If one writes an option for say 10 Rs, and
the price goes to 50 Rs, you owe as the writer 40 Rs. If someone covers it before expiry, the 40Rs
comes from your pocket. And you do not have a write option
anymore. In that case, does the above table still hold true ?
ie can one get whipsawed both sides ? ie you lose money
on ur writes and only the call or put alone makes money.
gd
As expected Nifty moved up & achieved all targets - 5140 / 50 / 60. I suggested that you short at higher levels. If you have not shorted, you will get another opportunity to short at a higher level tomorrow (5278)
For those who have shorted between 5240 to 5260 - (I've entered a short at 5250), Keep a SL at (5323) on a closing basis and continuing to hold the short position for the short term (7th May). I'm "hoping" that the Market will correct by this time. I can be completely wrong! Trade at your own risk!! If you feel uncomfortable do not trade!!
Nifty will make another attempt to move up tomorrow and possibly even Monday - 30th April and trade in a narrow range.
Nifty will move to touch 5278 / 90 and hang around this level over the next couple of days. The thick black dotted line has offered support and it seems, will continue to offer support for the next couple of days until it breaks the line. There seems to be a clear trading channel (marked in BLUE). I would be worried if we close above 5323 as this would indicate strength in the market and a breakout from the channel would lead to targets of 5450 - 5750+
The thick pink line offers resistance at 5278 and there could even be a breakout upto 5289. There is also a trading band between 5323 (resistance) & 5200 (support).
The trend will continue to remain down until 5323 is taken out!
VIX
Need to keep a close eye on the VIX as it could have given a false breakout. As suspected, it has closed below the trendline. I've included the VIX chart as well for your review.
Lets keep a close watch on this tomorrow and figure out if we should continue to hold the short / close out and enter at higher levels. If VIX falls, then that would indicate further strength in the markets and it would not be wise holding the short position.
Alternatively, you can hedge your short position - buy an equal quantity of calls * buy 5300 Call - May Series tomorrow and continue to hold your short position as well.
Charts @ when2buy.blogspot.com
Monthly till now
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE
5,270.60 5,399.50 5,161.05 5,215.45
A close around 5270 will be perfect doji at resistance zone 5250-5380 levels
Closing below 5270 will be biased negative on monthly charts
A close above monthly pivot 5182
Wwekly its a solid open=high case
Stochastics down
f.Macd down
s.macd at kissover point may turn upwards if thrust provided
It will try to close above 5274 else it will close below 5- wema
Hourly
Macd crossover +ve but yet to cross zero line
21hma at 5266 it will try to catch it first, but difficult to move ahead 5300 in next 2 days as per Bollinger band setup
@Option strategy - There would be max loss would be for
Rs 2400 + trasaction charges.
Another Strategy to sell near by Call
and put. And hedging with the future can also works.
Anindya Banerjee and Sajeevs,
Option table is correct. Max. loss cannot be more than 300/- if Nifty closes at 4900 on the downside or 5500 on the up side.
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