Retracement strategy, a must for traders.
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ... -
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
118 comments:
Piyush - sent yesterday night itself to you.
Just check and tell me acceptability.
===========
Manu - good. Converse theory is you can maintain an Indian wife (only) with Indian Salary. Hence status quo maintained.
A small intra long here or above 5260NS.SL 5250.
Captain is back..team is happy..very good morning sir
5300/5400 starts to unwind ..mkt may see sharp upturn..watch it...carefully..
@sir
plz update suzlon sl on stock welth
or hr as per ur conv.
@gautam
still on HTC..
========================================
Mailed interesting obsrv to sir,gauti and
pld rajagopal SIR
===================================
Dear RajaGopal,
Test Mail Sent
Thanks & Regards
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
@The Analyst
Good & timely observation.
why would 5300 and 5400 calls unwind if smart money thinks there is further downside.
But since 5300 puts are also unwinding simultaneously ,let us take it as indecision of big players ,till clear picture emerges.
It suggests to trsde light.
Sanjay - responded.
Dear RajaGopal,
Reply given
Thanks & Regards
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
GA All.
Ilango sir before 2 days u gave "break of 5230 will give targets of 5100/4950."
This still hold?
i am under huge huge losses in gail
any suggestion in gail
and any suggestion for recovering my huge losses made in gail by any other probable profitable trade, pleaseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
thanks
r parekhr
Great going, as always, sir!!
rochak : Is it down by 27 ?
It was expected to go to 397 - instead it is moving up. Positive is the 18K crore subsidy announcement. Either wait for 412 levels to decide SL or wait till 20.04 to Average. Hope in equities. If n future, look at May for averaging.
Raider "Never Average your losing trade" - Anuj's experience.
====
Look at some other counter that will move again in the next swing, DLF,Infy,Bharti,Bade Bhai RIL ... to recoup.
All the best. Be assured most of us are sitting on such time bomb - sitting tight and staying light are the mantras in this market.
You may get wiser counsel.
@RG
Pl. note in GAIL-
1.All EMA's 5,20,50 & 100 are around 410-412 levels.
2.Stock moving in channel pattern in daily charts.
3.Reaching O/S levels in short term.
4.Good short term buy at around 395(bollinger band lower limit) and approx channel bottom support at 399 levels.
5.As selling was on high volumes can consolidate and then move up in medium term.
Rochak - see aarvee's msg ? I know wiser counsel will come.
Thanx aarvee. 412 and 39 closely coincide with my SL and II buy levels suggested.
Thank you
thanks as ever raj gopal
hope u have completed ur journey
and had a convenient one
yes, my position is in equities only , not in futures
and what impression i had by ur suggestion is either to liquidate some of my position at 412, and then try to average some more either at 397 or on 20 th
hav i understood rightly, or .........
thanks
r parekh r
412 and 393 ... pls.
Hi..Bizagra,
There are two channels possibility...Nifty has broken one. The other channel bottom is @ 5200.
There are two ways of counting this move from 4675 - 5399..
Hour chart suggests "5" done..
Day chart suggests "4th" is on to be followed by a 5th up.
The "inflection point" would be 5190.
Till then trade short.
Also when dualities exist, follow TA by "staying Short" till Nifty closes above 5 ema or 5190 reaches.
@bizagra
Just now power came. Is intra longs are still holdings?
Thank you
@RG
for me its buy in the range of 395-400 and sell in the range of 410-412 in short term
It seems that Nifty has broken the Triangle on Hourly charts.
Next Target could be 5215.
Break of 5250 NS can bring the above mentioned Target.
AAR VEE - not in GAIL. But what I suggested to Rochak is the same. I said Average around 393 so as to exit @ 412.
Coincides with your levels.
as we are nearing expiry, any suggestions from experts for buying options..if viren/Sundar drop a word about "nifty expiry levels" - it would be helpful..it has worked out really well for last expiry
@Prabhakar, i m still holding intra longs taken @ 5260 NF. I m keeping new low as SL
Looking for 5295 targets as sir gave for going short again.
@prabhakar,.
Intraday longs were given by sir expecting some upmove which didn't materialize as we find resistance around 5270.i went long but got out at entry price...pls read sir's last comment to Bizagra..bottom line is to STAY short to book around 5190 or to exit when it closes above hourly ema.. friends pls correct me if am wrong
new low means 5246 NF?
Yes prabhakar and i ll reverse if new low is made.i m taking 5240NF as sl
nifty 5 min in rectangle, rg sir must have made 50 points
we have to sit for breakout or breakdown
small +ve divergence in 5 minutes..
see nifty spot at 5280 in short time..
4.4 lacc OI build up in 5200 put..its highest qty of OI as of now...
only concern is put at 5300 why its still not bulding up..if really nifty wants to move higher..
Thank you assortZ and Bizagra
Some good comments by Gautam on Gold.
The chart also shows an INHS pattern for a target of
USD 1270.
Here's the link:
http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/948/goldchart.png
Ilango Sir,
If Nifty spot slips below 5350, can I initiate short in NF?
Thank you
GA Viren. Travelling? Noted GB's comments on Gold - will learn.
Will we get MP values?
========
Piyush : I am trading for 9p now. Have sent a write up and chart from Moh proving that it is possible technically. (Sent couple of days back).
thanks rv
thanks rg
some observation and then inference expected from dear fellow board members and rv and rg both
1. nifty is not sustaining over 5260 as figured out by i lango, so no rally ???
2. mcdowells is down by 170 points in 3 days time
and 10 % in 2 days time,
3. mastek is down over 20 % in 3 days time
4.india bulls finance is up by 35 % in 10 days time ( ohh god, what if i wud hav put my money in ibulls instead of GAIL
5.united phosphorous is massively range bound throughout last 10 weeks or so between 148 and 165,
6.same is the case with al chemist , supports at 158 odds
7.BEL is down over 380 points in last 10 days or so
8.nb ventures is coming up since yesterday even if markets are down
9.rama news is down over 20 % in last 2 days only from 27 odd to 21.5
these were my observations
dear board members, kindly take out some inference out of my observation in the advantages of our fellow board members
thanking u all
r parekh r
@Gautam
am also telling the same...when rupee is oversold position..it will depreciate...that means we can expect some news somewhere ...indication has there in the form of SEBI FII requirement and RBI PE Norms...
which inturn indicates dollar going up...but it is gradual process and imo it is started from last friday...
"2. mcdowells is down by 170 points in 3 days time
and 10 % in 2 days time"
I down Mcdowell. I mentioned that my broker gives a call every week end on this bottle errr counter. Today it is Parekh - why are you testing me God ?
Parekh - will have to study. But you are discounting the phenominal run up all these counters had. Some profit has to be booked somewhere ?
CNX It continuously showing weakness...any experts comment.
.vl help in nifty moving downwards..??..really mkt is waiting for some clue...
rajagopal..wahts ur todays 2:40 expectations...any hint..??
RajaGopal,
Back at my desk for today...but will be moving out again.
Value areas : 5338-5278-5275.
Chart is on Vtrender.
@analyst,
RG’s Friday theory- RED..i hope at least this week it oblige
Thank you Viren.
===
Anil - It has to be -ve. But to the great delight of Dear PS, market is not obeying Rules.
Hi, dear sir ilango,
now at this stage whats yr view on bank nifty can we buy here from this level for upmove
regards,
alpesh
Assortz,
You can calculate your own daily levels using the VIX
Formulae Shai showed.
Feed the formulae in excel and let excel calculate
for you.
Illango's 5245 from a few weeks back is again the low
of the day today.
The market has auctioned below yesterday's value
implying acceptance by players of the break-down
yesterday.
5245 will be put to the test.
@viren,
yes viren i have done for couple of days..but still hesitant to follow it and need to cross check with others for some time..i struck with the last step where we conclude based on OI..
@ alpesh,
Nifty @ 5200+/- is a place to part book profits on shorts. This weekly close if below 5257 will suggest more falls.
As observed earlier "5190" is an inflection point..
For BN 9200/9180.
it seems my observations could not divert anybodys attention except ever green RG,
well does any body agree with amol's astro nifty prediction of a friday, 16 th april being a dooms day, might show us 5100 today itself???????????????????????????????????????????????????
THANKS
r parekh r
DEAR ILANGO SIR what is the downside target for infosys
Scrip Name Vix Low at 13.40 Hrs
ABB 823.04 832.00
ACC 926.95 922.00
AXISBANK 1132.27 1131.40
BHARTI 298.01 301.70
BPCL 499.51 497.00
CIPLA 326.29 324.45
GAIL 397.00 402.35
GRASIM 2786.08 2786.60
HDFC 2642.59 2642.65
HEROHONDA 1918.42 1920.00
HINDALCO 172.87 171.95
HLL 221.41 223.35
ICICIBANK 902.96 915.30
ITC 260.26 260.10
L&T 1551.89 1560.00
M&M 501.91 503.15
MARUTIUD 1335.00 1345.00
ONGC 1028.83 1028.60
POWERGRID 106.30 107.10
RANBAXY 448.35 446.50
RELCAP 752.85 752.10
RELICOMM 167.16 167.10
RIL 1073.35 1071.15
SAIL 222.62 225.60
SBI 2031.26 2025.25
SIEMENS 726.38 731.90
STERLITE 834.59 830.15
SUZENER 71.08 71.05
TATAPOW 1317.25 1321.50
Still 2 more hours left for the rest to oblige
or kick me on my face.
Just checking applicability.
Raja sir
what does the 2:30 factor says
regards
Vix expected Lows were p(a)osted in the morning. Just comparing with actuals.
r parekh r - all your counters are "niche" ones hence others are waiting. I also focus on N50 only.
@ Assortz, @ All,
I'm just trying to make sense of the Open Interest changes
happening at 5300 and 5200. ( This is just a view and
will have to confirm EOD, don't trade on this)
I see liquidation happening at 5300 by both call and
put writers. Calls by about 0.5 mn and puts by about 1mn
About 50 % of these liquidated positions are moved to
5200 .i.e. 250,000 at 5200 calls added and 500,000
at 5200 PE added.
So end of the day we may have a case of falling OI
and perhaps price too, if it is below 5245.
This speaks of discouragement on the path of longs
( falling OI and falling price) and may point to
more downside.
OI experts can please throw in your views..
Anil - It has to be -ve. But to the great delight of Dear PS, market is not obeying Rules.
Dear Ilango and Blog mates,
Good afternoon.
Dear Mynac - You must be reading Viren's post. Please supplement it.
@ Viren,
Presently NF resisted @ POC-5278.
Dear Mr. Ilango
I am holding Reliance 1120 call option @ 26.00. Shall I hold it for next week.
Expecting Reliance will reach 1175 by this april expiry. Kindly guide me.
regards... SRYAS
Dear Rajagopal,
Still considering the 5200PE O.I. For me,Further Nifty fall ( If there will be) will be restricted at 5200 it self.That's why from yesterday I was eager to know From Dear Ilango, his views Below 5245.Dear Viren is also an expert for me but still I shall wait for Nifty to come at 5200 to go long only.
@ Illango,
POC needs to support now this little upmove.
Dear Mynac.
Thanks. I understand that your bottom level is 5200 for S&R.
hi..friends this iswhat i m saying a sharp move upto nifty spot 5280...
options data is telling all..may b i get worng..but its ok..
Dear Rajagopal,
Considering 5200PE O.I. at least for this expiry.
@ sryasdmurali,
If RIL holds above 1070(It has done so far), it has the possibility to make its 5th wave to 1175 area.
This based on my perceived EW obs...it could go wrong too.You follow the prices in the coming sessions..It it starts to trade above 1110-1115, you get that possibility.
viren,
thanks for your inputs
sir,
am i right!
5295 is a great resistance if i remember correct...nifty took support many times at this level..
today also nifty future returns from that point..it shows respect of that level...
Viren sir,
I think a few days ago when val and poc were close we were talking abt gap up opening. However today was gap down
Dear Rajagopal,
If there is reduction in Nifty Future O.I. at the end of the day then it shall be confirmation for me regarding my above said view.
Yes..Viren,
It looks like it may not support it..
EW suggests one more low before a decent rally possibility..
isnt mcdowells a great buy today eod or at 1180-1200??????????????????????
Piyush,
Even I felt the same after yesterday's closing.
I closed my shorts at the close yesterday expecting a move
to 5305-5315.
But one must remember that the close needs to be validated
by the open and I wanted the open to be above POC today.
Didn't happen..
Sir is there a SL for the conservatice shorts. What if the old resistance = 5393 gets broken for upside?
sir
thn wht abt stock calls
long: suzlon,uni,tisco,bajan
shrt :nifty,infy
will wait eagerly
@KGOVIND,
Please Don't scare us by talking about breaking 5393 levels..especially RG will get panic to see your comments...
The Analyst-Anil..
Your observation is correct. Besides Nifty got resisted @ 5295 before making the 5399 high too.
@ KGovind,
To protect your profits keep 5335 as a trailing SL. Bring it down to 5305 on Monday.
And in the meantime if Nifty falls below 5235 towards 5220/5190, Book profits.
romi said...
isnt mcdowells a great buy today eod or at 1180-1200??????????????????????
High Price - I get it for Rs 74 (a quarter).
assort7
Sorry, I meant 5293NF (previous low) where Nifty future found support. Your right even 5393 resistance is there.
sir , booked @ 5376 NF and went short again.
Thanks
Sir,
Your views on Tisco please. Holding shorts.
Regards
Arvind
a profit booking as suggested by sir is happenned in the morning..as the volume in 5300/5400/5500 call in the morning is good one..and after that inspite of mkt going up down we havent seen any substantial build up in call side OI...so large traders r still their and smaller ones booked out..i suppose..by volume and OI analysis...unless OI of 5300 call below 2 lacs as of now its -ve 4.8 lacs...it will not suggest any substantial build up...
also same for 5300 put unless it falls from -ve 8 lacs to atleast -ve 5 lacs..we cant tell any build up in 5300 put OI ...so watch out..that way..
yeh mynac i agree ...5200 put is the key right now..to watch out..mkt is below almost 150 points from recent top..but max pain is still at 5300 level strike..so one can expect mkt to settle around these levels..???
experts plz comment...
Bye Everybody,Thanks.
hello everybody and good afternoon to all
mange to log in market hours.
The Analyst-Anil,
It's interesting that you speak about max pain at 5300.
I read about it at marketcalls.in too.
Are you sure that despite a liquidation of 1.5 mn it still
is at 5300?
@ Arvind,
Tata Steel has not weakened inspite of the general corrective scenario.
A close below 683 alone can drag it down. Closing below 693 will keep "some pressure" but closing above 693 will give it more strength.
I don't know your shorting level. SL should be 702.
@ viren
yeh i m sure i maintained my copy and upgrade every hour..just to see whats happening in options mkt..anyways now watch how 5300 put statted bulding up OI reduced to 7.7 lacs -ve from almost 8.9 lacs -ve..a hour earlier...
Sir
Thank you for the SL of 5305 for monday. Another thing, is green your favoueitw colour ?
Ungah colour rombah gauddi adikidu. That is why i am asking . Not complaining, only giving my opinions.
Thanks a lot sir for your views.Grateful to you as always.
@Arvind,
I just updated Tata Steel's Hourly charts..It looks bullish.
Tata Steel did not close below 5 day ema as well as 5 day low ema..It is below its day high ema but it looks to close above that today..It was never a "Short" candidate.
Only a close below 693.50 will give you some chance..
hello rg
will u plz send me the 9/12 pointer file, and any practical way to do that in options and futures of stocks.
Rajagopal thanks for the excel sheet with formula. I am unable to find the stockwise VIX in the NSE website. Could you pls. provide me the menu sub-menu option?
@ KGovind,
I did not have enough time to experiment on the colours..I agree with your view. Will look for good alternatives.
Sandy - Available under Derivatives and Futures. Please check.
Complete list is given.
sir,
in Nifty spot hourly +ve divergence is seen in CCI...
anyways a close below 5260 is seemed to be cautious..will opened down levels i suppose...upto 5180...
@viren
5200 put OI is at negative 6.2 lacks...ohh..seems to be building up...
Hi Guys,
Keep 5280 as sl for shorts even for
monday, if market trade above this level
for an hour it would positive for market as per my
method
gail @ 411, whether 2liquidate some or trail whole in expectation of 395???????(god knows it comes or not )
I hope the site is NSEINDIA.COM. There is one F&O option in the menu and one Derivatives option on the first page right side. I haven't been able to find it. Please check it & confirm.
Romi - "cross road" - it is beating the range. Worth the risk to sit tight.
You may recover some more (equity only - why tension?)
@ Anil,
Intra day OI movements are treacherous.
I like to see it only EOD.But the fact is that both the CE
and the PE are shedding OI.
HI Respected Illango Ji and blogmates
dear sir i am holding 2 puts of 5300 @75 CMP 92 ....sir can i carry it for net weak sir....pl. advise as it is going to close
regards
vikram
rg,
euity only
but hav taken position by margin funding,
got to pay mtm, if it goes under 397
thanks respondingg
Hi romi,
it would be safe long in gail above 414
only
@Bizagra,
I am holding my conservative shorts in NF for Monday.
Thank you
Ilango sir,
We are likely to close below 5267 but not sure about 5257..your one liner please for mr.alibaba and his 40 to carry shorts
Sir
close is between 5357ns and 5367 ns. so carrying shorts as weekly trend is now down
@Prabhakar, same with me. Now closing is giving weekly down. Sir will give updated lower targets now.
Thanks
Alibaba in.
=======
Sanday - pls send a test mail.
@ Vikram,
Book one put as there will be time decay and "OS" hour may give a small rally.
US mkts have not corrected yet. If they do, then more falls possible. There is "indecision even among option writers.
@alibaba
Present sir
"Carrying shorts".
Bye All.
sir,
is the positive divergence seen in the hourly charts can come into play in the next session?
btw - Romi if you opt for DP holding then margin calls won't be frequent/strict.
Speak to the branch - just try. It will bear interest but.
Raja,
Shall be grateful if you could send the excel sheet
thanks rg, rv & mkt follower
Thanx alot sir
i have done as you advised......booked 1 put at 96 ....and holding 1 now
lets see on monday
regards
vikram
DR - No reading material - just a distorted version of scalping. I a big Zero in options.
Kindly send me a test mail.
=====
arvind - the file is already uploaded by Ilango. Kindly take it.
=====
Sandy - got the values? pls send a test mail.
"Test Mail" - I am using the firms official mail id and got many ids stored. Have by mistake marked one mail to one of the client, who promptly called and asked can I buy ???. I was surprised about the question. He told me my mistake. I find many similar names - Sanjay and Rajeev are the maximum.(Only one VANILANGO) Hence I request for test mail. Please don't fee bad if it is a repeat request. Many of us use different blog name and mail id which makes it more difficult.
Bye. WALK with your SHORTS.
After years of searching and pains , i could find a excellent, beyond expectations, very good site.
God Bless you ALL. Speial Thanks to Ilango , RajGopal,Sundar and other
Blogmates.
Truly speaking to take out benefits from these inputs would require
lot of hardwork from Readers also. ultimately Market is Supreme.
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