Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ...
72 comments:
GM sir nd friends :)
Sir - am expecting 5834 any EW intra possible here?? tks n advance.
Hiten - wish and thought fulfilled.
Nilesh ji opening itself is 5 ema :P now i am expecting JNSAR to hit. becoz NIFTY future has not yet done it's part. am expecting atleast upto 5871/65/29. kindly check charts what is there??? inbetween let us see whether if any bounce comes it will hold or not???
watchout 89 EMA 5840 whether supports or breakdown??
SJK - kindly post the "impact" in simple language.. BIGGGG ZEROOOOO in options :( :(
Why put options prices inspite of the increase in OI? Any options, OI specialist comment please.
5863.30 - 5883 gap area
Infy: followed by negative divergence seen on hrly and daily charts (courtesy Sir's TA file) on 7th March, price has been slashed by about 150 points.
mkt aaj phir cover kiya to bears frustrate ho jayenge, so mkt plz do not cover today.
@Sujatha sis,
Your support level may come soon. I m more bearish than that. seeing open interest it is scary for bears. But i take it as a vice verse view. JNSAR will save the cautious traders. that is alarming signal.
Reposted :-
Dear all,
Not seen this kind of additions in options in first week, since the option trading started in India.
There is something more than the eyes can see.
In addition to my observation EOD FII figures of such huge option buying that too out of money is definitely not hedging, cause hedging is done by the near series to cover maximum risk. Its not short covering too of the series they had written on the last expiry day, cause this would have been reflected by deletion in OI.
That leaves with only one option that's naked buying.
Please also observe that the prices of all OFM puts are trading above last 2 days average, that means there is serious interest on the buy side and the close are also higher than the averages.
So is this naked buying of Puts, some indication. Let's wait for the price action keeping this is mind, for sure.
Regards
March 12, 2013 at 11:26 PM
rajapvt ji plz wait for sanjay sir's update.
Picture looks scary as of now with that options information.
nifty taking support at 50% of gann fan..
sjkolkata ji aapko aur kya kya dikh raha hai, is it your prediction or real data delivered.?
Namasthe ilango sir and friends,
Today's quote received :
All birds find shelter during rain.
But eagle avoids rain by flying above the clouds.
Problems are common,
but attitude makes the difference to overcome them...!!!
~abdul kalam
Rahul Dravid at 5888
veeru or mahi may take baton from dravid at 5888
Dear Ilango Sir & Blogmates,
OI Table Update at 11:00AM, Pivot-5942, R1-5970, S1-5909, ATP-5901, VWAP-5901
The CE writers are back, but we now have 3 strikes of PE having OI more than 1 crore, Nifty made trade around 5900 for the time being…
Thanks & Regards
Ankita,
This is all real data. I am not the one to post anything for fun.
Regards,
Long lower shadows on two hourly bars since open - pull back in offing to retrace part of fall from 5971?
5900 is 55ema in 5 min charts
5891 is 5dema
and 5897 is 5dsma
@SJK,
This naked put buying is seen upto 5300 strike in March series.This is rarely seen.
The last upmove at 5971 as "x" looks to be over(We will get confirmation by JNSAR and Master's signals, if that is the case).
Taking "y" 1.61 times of "w", the target comes 5250 and that matches with the option data. Hence I am with the view of Nilesh Patil.
FII's bought Index Options of Rs.2175cr & Rs.4037cr on 11th & 12th march.
SJKOLKATA.....if FII buying PEs then who is selling????
Hi BB
Ranbaxy: we analyzed this stock when it was trading around 380 on 1st March or so. since then, a gain of 40 pts.
nf 5915 bulls looking for..
Hi Parimal,
Thanks for the update. Ranbaxy is now doing good.
Regards
BB
@ SJkolkata definately something is cooking. best way to stay alert below 5970 level.
Hello friends
i request for more crystalization of thoughts on option (PE buying) by FIIs etc. kindly help, pls!
a small upsloping channel is forming in ns 2 min charts
5993cmp
ns ia at upper T/L of same channel
5990-5890 has some big res in nifty way for upmove
SJK - usually FIIs will not buy na?? they may hedge right??? now how to find out whether they are hedging or buying???
PS : Anyway i am very much giving respect to all our "JN option specialists" view and will compare with my nos.
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too many typo
cmp 5893
5890-5900 has big res
Asian paint is trading very close to upper end of price channel... Room for more upside is limited... All longs keep trailing sl ..
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@Sujatha,
When PE writing happens, the price of the premium drifts down. Whlie last two days extra ordinary trasations happend on various PE stikes and the Price is going up, that indicates that PEs are naked bought anticipating market to go down.
5878 is level at lower T/L of upsloping small channel
cmp 5880
Ilango ji,
prefer to see rise 5666-5971 as a ZZ or ongoing 5wave ?
Pls mention the invalidation pts for both lables
tks
Sujatha,
Hedging will be done only with the nearest series cause that covers the maximum risk. i,e, someone buying future for 5900 will hedge with 5900PE @ 70rs and the risk will be limited to this 70rs only and not with lower series cause than the future will be naked till the put series i.e buying future @5900 and buying 5800Pe for 40rs means maximum loss of 140rs.
I hope i could make my point clear with this.
Regards,
@mmarketman
retail
FII might have been in Net loss in Index Fut, as of now (For this month).
They sold Index Fut heavily on 1st two days. Then onwards buying most of the time. There net sell in Index Fut hardly comes to 3500 contracts.
But, They have bought heavily Stock Fut. Almost 130,000 contracts.
SJKolkata sir
as per my guess FII dont buy pe for hedging instead they write options as hedging
big question is if they are buying OTM pe in such big qtty then who are sellers as retail may not take unlimited risk for just 5-10rs gain
and more if we say our markets are totally controlled by FII or so called operators(if they do exist) then why they need hedging...they can manipulate markets as per their positions
@ S4S,
Another view on OI :
Bull cartel: wants to trap bears & is hence suppressing price in spot / futrz, allowing PE premiums to rise , but @ same time building up China Wall of OI
Bear cartel: wants to hold price @ CMP till "event" , and steadily loading up on OTM PEs
Which one to choose, bolo ? :-)
@ Rajvada - I beg to differ. One has to see the difference in implied vols to figure accurately whether its buying in options. Price of puts increases with fall in underlying.
Interesting information SMO.
unwinding started in 5800pe now
is it time to be cautious with longs???
days low and days high may be decider levels i guess
@Indie Tech,
I cannot disagree with what you said,"Price of puts increases with fall in underlying"
But there are two other angles.
1. There is huge OI build up in OTM PEs. Retail cannot build that much.
2. The change in underlying(Nifty) is not significant so far, but the change in value of OTM PEs are higher than normal. This particular reason is the basis for the inference.
Shriram,
Add to your view , the vix is steadily climbing, and the it looks like faster retrace, fall was 8 days, but receoved almost 73% in 5 days, considering the event possibilty of retracing the entire fall in Vix
5870
retesting near days low levels
will it bounce or will it??
is it double bottom pattern in making??
if yes then any upmove abv 5896-5900 range can be fast and furious
nifty stalwarts in green
RIL,SBI,BHARTI,HUL,ITC all in green thouh mild
STOCK4SURE
double bottom of what time-frame, pls?
thank you friends for the OI inputs..still the "conversation" is gng on...watching interestingly as i donno anything about that :D
chetas - is that a worry for bulls???
another one from my side - global market on top and now on 'pause" mode looks like, so is this a right time for biggies or FIIs to bring our market down?? i am a comfortable bear if at all 5870 taken out decesively
Chetas,
small clarif. pls.. u mean vix says this boucne from 5666-5971* is just a fast corrective , or part of a bigger Upmoving wave ?
@ dear all
pls update me which event are coming and when.?
Thank. You
5850 today at least
smelling a bounce > 5900 , if 5860 NS holds for 1 hr
shriram ji - 5900 again?? then my prayer is OMG please break 5860 give me JNSAR hit
@sujatha
Joining your prayers:)
Hang Sen is down 1.8%
Suja:
to give u some more headaches, on Day chart, can u see inv. HnS ??
If it works above NL (needs EOD > 5970 in coming days) , then , wot may b tgts ??
SMO: Wish I can see it today if possible
this view is invlaid < 5860, pl b on red alert below this level
time for sapad, cu @ 14:00hrs
shriram,
my understanding from vix, is a fast corrective and now possible fast fall.
What i am watching is the bigger picture on daily and weekly vix. ( though the dats is too small compared to S&P vix)
on daily
1) 24/9/2012 we hit high of 19.8, on oct 22 we crashed to 12.87,
2) retested the lows on jan 9th 2013 , made a lowel low at 12.58 , but closed higher at 13.32,
3)then we broke the falling trendline since sep 24th , at 14.52 level on 25.01.2013 ( near RBI event) and made a high of 17.52 ( but lower high)
4. on 7 the march we went till 12.83 ( higher low / near double bottom on 8th march at 12.85)
5. in this context, the retracement since 7th march from 12.83 to 16.29 in vix is faster and looks impulsive ( so the rally in NS can we say is corrective ? , i do not know )
6. In weekly vix, a breakout from trendline if we close above 17 levels on weekly basis
please do share your feed back , thanks
@Rajvada - Regarding pt (1), for every buyer there is seller - if retail can sell puts to the extent FIIs have bought, the opposite can also be true. After all, FIIs are not one monolithic entity and neither are non-FIIs.
Pt (2): I guess we are on same page here - increase in put prices relative to fall in underlying would reflect in higher IVs.
I dont have any source to check IVs over last few days . If anyone has source to track IVs of individual strikes, it would be a good resource for the group.
hello friends
can anybody post screen shot of TT at one pm
as i am in OT and looks master is also busy.
thanks.
Shriram
H&S of Nifty on daily chart: NL is at 5971, and distance from NL to inverted head is at 5670-- 300 points, when if NL is taken out trgt could be 5970+300.
Nifty fno & Bank Nfity made new low I-D.
6000 CE option not made new low
Golden ration Sale (SPOT) 5915 SLO 80% 5929
As nifty had violated HB 5892, 21 & 34 Down.
If hits, high probabilities trade success ratio trade.
Trend following trade only.No longs as anti trend trade.
Else wait & learn nice knowledge sharing options.
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