Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ... -
Will not be available to intra update . Suggest one of our readers to update on DHEma-HHEma-HCEma & HLEma for possible support points fo...
35 comments:
@ Ankit Solanki ,
It took approx. 23 trading hours to move from 6008 to 6112.
12 Hours have gone by.
(5-min bars would be ideal to follow as the first & last hour of trading days are lesser than an hour)
241 nos of 5-min bars taken from 6008 to 6112
134 nos of 5-min bars have gone by since the 6112 highs @ 10.00AM.
SBI near to support zone of 2420-2430. Next is 50 DMA.
Good Morning Ilango, DR, and everyone,
I have been manually back testing the data for 2011 and 2012 for S & P CNX Nifty Index, comparing BSAR (Biased Stop and Reverse) with JNSAR (Just Nifty Stop and Reverse).
Took me 60 hours of sytem time, and now I would be taking a break.
Results:
Initial Capital on 1-1-2011: 10 lakh
BSAR:
Capital at the end of 2012: 48 lakh
(ignoring income tax, but net of brokerage and STT)
Maximum drawdown: 50%
Maximum Adverse Excursion: 175 points
Maximum Favorable Excursion: 675 points
Maximum Consecutive Losing trades: 13.
JNSAR:**
Capital at the end of 2012: 70 lakh
(ignoring income tax, but net of brokerage and STT)
Maximum drawdown: 30%
Maximum Adverse Excursion: 40 points
Maximum Favorable Excursion: 100 points
Maximum Consecutive Losing trades: 7.
**TARGET:100 POINTS AND NO PART BOOKING
Conclusion:
JNSAR is better than BSAR. If one follows it consistently, no other method could bring in so much profits.
Thanks and Regards,
Mohammed Javed Akhtar
(In case of any queries, feedbacks or brickbats, please mail me)
The "pause(abc)" could be unfolding in a complex way with
a being 6042 to 6072
b being 6072 to 6042 as below:
(a):6072-6044
(b)6044-6070
(c)6070-6042
c could be unfolding presently towards 6077-85 or more provided 6029 is held.
Break below 6029 would suggest that the "pause has ended as a simple flat @ 6070.
@ llango,
thanks alot.
Namasthe ilango sir and friends,
Today's quote received :
We may run, walk, stumble, drive, or fly,
But let us never lose sight of reason for the journey,
Or miss a chance to see a rainbow on the way.
~Gloria Gaither
Hi...Mohammed Javed Akhtar,
Thank you for the efforts made to highlight the benefits of a mechanical trading system.
It is the discipline to follow the method even during "whipsawing phases" that the trader would end up on the rightside of "big-trades" and sit through to reap maximum benefits.
Thank you once again.
Goodmorning master and all Blogmates
JNSAR is the best.
Namaste Ilango Sir & all members.
Hi javed,
TARGET:100 POINTS AND NO PART BOOKING
does it mean, closing all the position once 100 points achieved and waiting till next JNSAR?
Thank you
السلام عليكم
Bhai Jaan
Javed sir
Same question as que sera sera.unfortunately no email id provided in ur profile
@ Mohammed Javed Akhtar ji...
you took 10lacs as capital could you please tell how much lots of nifty calculated in actual trading & 100 points target could you again clear how next trade had been took like in jan 2012 jnsar gave 700 points in single trade so if booked at 100 points than how would next trade been taken please clarify if you like......thanks alot for sharing
Combined OI of nifty futures for Jan and feb stands at 1.95 crores.
Experts pl comment since it's continuously adding.
@ Mohammed Javed Akhtar
I Have too Backtested it , but with part book ( for 50 points for one lot )strategy as MASTER do , with that if 10 lac initial capital as u said with compounding in lot after profit the return at end of 2012 around 1 Cr + ,, so that is great for Discipline & patience traders.
It required good amount of skill to maintain discipline & patience, & it reword you like nothing other can. :)
@mja ji
as i couldnt locate ur mail id i'll post my queries.
what trade rules u applied to jnsar, 20 points, next day manage or on closing basis.
maximum favourable excursion looks to be biggest profitable trade (as u booked jnsar at 100 points) max adverse excursion is biggest loser. am i right in my assumption?
@Ilango Sir and Javed Bhai:
Hats off to Javed Bhai for your efforts of back testing the two systems, and sharing the findings. You are one of the most trustworthy individual I have ever met in the blogo sphere and I have immensely understood trading through the likes of you and Ilango-ji !!!
Ilango ji,
Just a suggestion.. for a mathematical view pt, to avoid Whipsaws of any EMA based SAR...
will help to combine SSTO / RSI with the Hi-Lo-EMA bands to generate ENTRY Triggers for max wins ...
(gives earlier entry & also tally wid Support / Res trades, & allows a trader with TSL to lock profits and/or Cap. protection even if the Trend Fizzles out , or is just a corrective)
Infact, this seems to be the take away from ur core trading style to me... :-)
Thank You Ilango, DR, and everyone,
I have a connectivity problem at my end.
@hbk:
The way to it is, I have kept 1 Nifty for every thousand.
50 Nifty Single Contract for Rs 50000
For remainder amount:
For amount less than Rs 25000 - no contract!
For amount more than Rs 25000 - one contract!
For example, suppose after a trade I have 14, 24, 000,
I would take 1400 Nifty, that is, 28 Contracts.
Now further suppose, that I have, Rs 16, 87, 000 after another trade. I would take 1700 Nifty, that is 34 contracts.
@Que Sera Sera and @Cooldent,
Yes book in 100 points and wait for next trigger.
@hbk
If anyone of you would back test the data, he would find that, most profits are eaten by the loss making trades. If you leave your positions open, then there are gap ups and gap downs waiting to wipe out your profits. I have considered several strategies, along the tests, and I have found this one to be most pragmatic, if not optimum.
@Sandeep Bhoite
If I would use all money to buy contracts, as you have suggested, then I am afraid the profits wouldn't be 1 Crore, it would be 2 Crore and 10 lacs, yes 2 Crore and 10 lacs, 21 million INR... precisely. But I prefer keeping a margin enough to meet a lower circuit or upper circuit, just in case....
@Piyush Sharda
20 points SL in real time, no EOD consideration whatsoever.
You are right. Besides also note that Max Number of Consecutive Losing trades is 7, which would go to 20 if you leave your positions open to follow the trend! Personally I can't stand those many loosing trades one after the other, so I would prefer JNSAR with a 100 point target.
@Vk & @DR
Thank You!
Thanks and Regards,
Mohammed Javed Akhtar.
@ Piyush Sharda,
Another variation I had tried was the day I take a position, I use day's high or day's low as SL for that particular day, and then JNSAR from the next day onwards, this strategy gave some wonderful results in 2012 but not in 2011.
Thanks
@ Mohammed Javed Akhtar,
It is back test only. Every system is good enough on paper, but how many can implement it with its rules that is more important. What about real trades where emotions like fear and greed play important roles? How a trader can come out of these emotions, even though he is knowing the system very well? If you have any idea for this, please share it for real trading.
Hi s4s:
+ve ww on 5mins... time to look for 6080 ??
rgds
Is expiry today?
Where is expiry roller coster ride?
By fibonacci nifty SS 6028 and. INS 6037 INR 6077.
@ Mohammed Javed Akhtar
I am also not using all the money for investment in that calculation ,, if margin amount is 1 lac then only trade with 2 lots , so 40 % of cash is reserved for wispose or to management of loss trade as I observed max Loss was once 220 points in 4 Consecutive trades .. i said 1 Cr+ , actually its 1.68 Cr , just do not wanted to come direct amount as thought MASTER would not like so ,, but hats off to your effort too :)
@ Mohammed Javed Akhtar ji. Is it actual trade or paper trade ?
DR sir,
Ride will start soon. :)
Todays range seems to be from 6018 to 6090
New Post Done.
@mja ji,
thank u. i have read that many trend following systems if exactly followed have accuracy of 27-28% but are profitable. mathematically they can have 30 losing trades in a row . there was some mathematical formula using ln to derive which i dont remember that.
a contracting triangle pattern developing within channel pattern in intraday charts
apex of triangle is near 3.30pm
near 25-30pts move either side may be seen on break of 6042-6070 range
Hi...Mohammed Javed Akhtar,
Will U pl. define your trading rules in detail.
If you feel ok will U pl. provide your email id?
Regards
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