Every rise has been sold into thus far.
However, precipitative fall hasn't happened.
Holding "5990", one last attempt could be possible.
"playing-the-bounce" is risky considering the overbought nature of weekly & Monthly TA and the same is being having bearish effect on few large cap stocks.
Let the market confirm a ST reversal with a close above 34 Hr sma.
For the intraday traders, "5990-6000" is a place to watch out for.
"6042"- is the number to be conquered by bulls.
Bears are comfortably poised presently.
However, precipitative fall hasn't happened.
Holding "5990", one last attempt could be possible.
"playing-the-bounce" is risky considering the overbought nature of weekly & Monthly TA and the same is being having bearish effect on few large cap stocks.
Let the market confirm a ST reversal with a close above 34 Hr sma.
For the intraday traders, "5990-6000" is a place to watch out for.
"6042"- is the number to be conquered by bulls.
Bears are comfortably poised presently.
138 comments:
Goodmorning ilango sir & blog friends. Happy nice day .
Goodmorning ji and all.
good morning !!!
Good Morning Ilango Sir and Blogmates.
Good Morning Sir & All Friends.
Good morning Ilango sir & all blogmates,
Rgds
Saravanan
Good Morning Master & Friends
GM Master n Blogmates
Good morning illango sir ^& friends wish you to have profitable day
Master ilango and friends, good morning to all
Regards
☺☺
Namaste Dear Master and all friends
Have a nice day of trading
ATR Based Trading Signals
Buy Zone : From 5990.85 to 5976.6
Breakdown below : 5973.75
Breakdown target : 5939
Sell Zone : From 6047.85 to 6062.1
Breakout above : 6064.95
Breakout target : 6110
By fibonacci SS 6009 ..5987.INR 6070
R/Ilango Sir Namaste n Namaskaar 2 all reader's.
Good morning master & JN family
Have a nice day !
Good Morning Ilango Sir & Friends...
Good Morning Ilango Sir and JN Friends
Good morning Ilango sir & all blogmates.
day pivot -6031
wk pivot -6037
Namasthe ilango sir and friends,
Today's quote received :
Happiness will never come to those who fail to appreciate what they already have.
Observation & Opinion :
"Basin Point" SLO as per
Edward & Magee."3 days away" The entire price range for 3 full days must be entirely above
the top price for the day making low.
This appy in reverse in decling markets where
the range for 3 days must be entirely below the
entire range of the day making high.
Widely used in developing markets.
Use smartly many ways.
Reverse your position accordingly.
Good Morning Sir & Friends
Parimalji,
Any views for Tata Steel, Tata Motors & Hindalco pl.
Thanks
Tata Motors: has a resistance at 304 (21hrsma), correction after big fall and closure of the production line.
BN fast rise?
near 6038- 6042 will be good resistance to nifty upmove
Friends jpasso tech pl
Good morning Ilango Sir and friends.
To mr hitendra tatasteel above 413 is good.
Thanks Parimalji & srn
Good Morning Master and copy to All
a small contracting triangle pattern developing in ns 5 min charts
res near 6038
sup near 6018
Good morning Master and ALL
@John merits: Just giving numbers and levels seems quite random to me - dont think anybody would see 'merit' in trading these levels unless any rationale is provided. Consider this as a friendly suggestion.
Master ji ,
from yestarday nifty trade near 6020 (50% of 6101..5940) what it says.
Sir ILango ji and everyone good morning
@stock4sure, then its ideal to go long with sl6017 risk is less for intra though contra to JNSar
5987
Friday and week end will decide weekly trend.
Premium of 6200PE of Jan/Feb are almost same. Any one has comments?
rajapvt,
Premium of in the money puts generally dont command any premium. but in this case if you compare with the NF prices of jan/feb you will understand that there is underlying premium.
to move to new lows after 10am close or breakout?
6018 ns at support
some bounce can be expected towards 6038
Sir update-1 ? Please Sir.
Dear Ilango Sir & Blogmates,
OI Table Update at 11:00AM, Pivot-6033, ATP-6026, VWAP-6027
Fight on for 6000 Level, with PE writers just ahead, intra weakness staying below 6023 NF…
Thanks & Regards
Ilango sir, jp technical pl.
Break out failure of low & huge hammer.
Market has not violataed even 3 single Bar
Wait to buy above 6041 the low of the day
making High of 6041 which is basin point
requirement to to touch.
The low of the day making High 6101
Breakout failure of fno.
Buy point c/o 6041 nifty spot.
This is not a call but observation of
trading use of Basin Points.If not c/o
To day will be the 1st day of requirements
& if not c/o for another 2 days of 6041 (s)
That is trend will reverse as "BASIN POINTS"
Sir,
when you are busy,is there any chance that,some of our senior blog mates will take the charge of posting Table?
positive divergence in MACD
NIFTY Intraday update: CLICK HERE
PROBABLITY OF A BULLISH WW DEVELOPING IN BN
a bullish WW nay develop in bn charts,pt 4 have formed near 12610(or may form near 12625)
pt 5 may form near 12525(near 1.30pm)
trgts near 12700 on monday morning
holding 6025 for 15 mins may move towards 6050-55
have posted TT and chart on google group
Good Morning Ilango Sir and Friends,
Back after a break...
Today seems to be a broker's day as far as BN is concerned.
Generic mood seems to be bearish so our big uncles(fii) may try to trap bears. just a thought without any technicals. :)
toofan ke pehle ki shanti
be cautious now some move may be coming now as emas have converged in a single line
Observations :
Kissing all the ways ?
Days 5 & 10
5HLEMA & 5DLEMA
Pivots all H. D. W.
Rapapvt,
In India puts are valued based on NF.
for Jan: strike- NFjan+ time value = 6200-6030 = 170, + time value 4.
for feb : 6200-60668= 132, + time value 42, ( more bacuse there is more time in feb)
my guess they will try to take nifty and BN up some points and then may make it fall towards 6000-6006 range
for in the money puts, its more easy , for out of money, basically it is time value, also if RBI cuts rates it will affect option values( in my opinion), i do not know whether that is factored in current prices
Thanks Chetas, time value is 42 which I just ignored and thought it is same.
ns and bn at res of 6036 and 12623...may see a sharp fall towards 6006 and 12525 levels near 1.30pm
6055 seems to be the upperlevel
res of 6042 on screen now
5 points underplayed
now grinding in 10-15 point range for 1 hour
@s4s any WW pattern
Intra support for BNF @ 12639-12632, falling below may take BN down.
NS JNSAR with filter 5661(5641+20) not triggered yet for long.
good afternoon dear sir , freinds and all my seniors
dear sir in your premarket comment you mentioned the importance of 5990 level can you explain it please and why do you say its the last attempt for a bounce? many many thanks
Dear Ilango Sir & Blogmates,
OI Table Update at 1:00PM, Pivot-6033, ATP-6031, VWAP-6031
6000PE writers a back with a BANG, with addition of 16.5 lacs till now. So 6000 level is held for the time being…
Thanks & Regards
Hanji Bhai Log...
Nifty BUY kiya ya??
got stopped out of shorts @ 6241 :-(
BSN: If short taken @6041, then stoploss is 6041+20=6061 and today's stoploss/JNSAR is 6046 as per TT. And today's stoploss for the long is 6026 spot.
JNSAR Traders: Please correct if the reading is wrong?
1:00 pm open & low same at 6036.4
"Significiant low 5988" not broken & bounce from
6007, now intermidiate top 6065 if concquer than
test will be for major top 6101
This is what I have understood for HH & HL in
hourly uptrend is in tact.
protecting 6030 for 1 hour will take it to 6060-65 eod
Dear Jay Shah,
Here is my interpretation.
1. 5990 (5988) being the last low from where the bounce reached 6101 and that is the last higher low..to make a higher high than 6042. Hence the signnificance.
2. 5990 also coincides Ilango Sir's EW wave count and trend line support. With "D" ending and an "E" to follow higher.
3. Faster retracement : Move from 5990 to 6101 took 40 candles in 30 mins chart. As of yesterday close, price moved from 6101 to 6008 in 35 candles. By this morning, had price went below 5990 by 1200 PM ( 5 more candles ) it would be considered a faster retracement of last upmove...implying trend change to down.
With these 3 in mind..5990 was a significant number for today's upmove so far.
Raghavendra
GA to illango sir and jnblogmates,
anybody knows about the mininifty contract for nextmonth......becoz nifty contract is available for feb...
thanks
reg,
saz
today's jnsar is 6046, 25-1-2013.
many thasnks dear raghavendraji
at this moment NF is above 34hrsma.
TATA STEEL/HINDALCO BITTEN DOWNS ARE UP.
Mini nifty contact is closed, so no more new contract is my understanding,
thanks chetas, why this sudden changes....i'm an out&out mininifty trader, becoz i partbook for every 20pts....this is hell a decision by sebi.....now the caption 'rich become richer and poor become poorer' is more apt for the indian culture......
thanks,
reg,
saz
Parimalji,
in addition
6101/6008
61.8% retrace is @ 6065.
Whenever PC has presented a budget market has reacted positively. Any takers for this assumption????
FIIs betting heavily on this presumption or they know much more than we know. This govt is more friendly with FIIS than with its own people :):)
is it possible??
that ns may move up towards 6090-95 range and a gapup abv 6101 for HH towards 6123-6143 this series
STSB
when did India Govt. given any undertaking to take care of Indians???
they are more friendly with not only FIIs, but even terrorists!!
Marutiiiiiiiiiiii
The attached chart of Nifty hourly shows a wedge of larger degree and a wedge in wave E [last leg]
of the wedge itself. Both reasons to believe in the bearish outcome. But yesterdays fall did not break
6000 the lower line which puts us on a back foot ahead of an event. If 6000 holds the bulls would say
it was a bullish running triangle consolidation. But the divergences inter market and the sentiment
indicators continue to tell me otherwise. But we need levels to watch. 6000 is a key support.
If wave 1 down formed then wave 2 up should stop near 61.8% at 6066, or 78.6% at 6082. Anything
higher should put bears on the backfoot. {Rohit}
Friends, as per JANUARY STRATEGY, which we have discussed already [http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.in/2012/03/nifty-intraday-update-i_29.html], Last year January high was 5217. In Feb, Nifty monthly close was above 5217 at 5385, in March 5295, in April 5248, but in May, Nifty closed at 4924. So any rise in the subsequent month should have been a long exit [as per this strategy] till Nifty has a monthly close above 5217. Subsequently, Nifty closed at 5278 in June and it never had a monthly close below 5217 for the rest of the year and it has reached a high of 6101.3 this month sofar.
So, watch this month high. Any monthly close below that is an exit and above that is entry again [as per this strategy]. This is not to take positions based on this and definitely not for friends here who have accurate techtools to deal with. Just for interest only, to keep this point also in mind. If this also helps fine. Ilangoji, if anyway this hurts or confuses, kindly remove this post.
G.Afty Master & JN family,
Reversal is under way.....RBI policy if +ve, will confirm this view
Tgts in range : 6.4-6.5K
View invalid below 5990
cheers
RBI will present financial policy on Tuesday
Ilango said...
"Ending diagonal's" "D" may have been done @ 6008 and "E" may be on. This structure gets negated below 5995.
January 24, 2013 at 2:50 PM
Ilango said in his other blog STOCK WEALTH:
BN's developing a "falling wedge" pattern with 12485 & 12685 as the two extremes for a decisive move.
shorts are crushed badly
sir,
target of 'e'?
Illango sir, shriram
Is this logic correct :
a - 5843-6041 = 198
c= 5940- 6101 = 161 (81.31%)
so e = 81.31% of C = 131 pts = 6007+131= 6138 max
or e @ 61.8 of a = 6129 ( looks more reasonable )
manojag- can u pls explain what it means?
Shriram ,
can this also be a rreegular b of D of Ed
so c of D to fo near 5980 or so then the last wave E of ED up
Shriram,
i read some where,
if it is ED/ wedge , the d leg should touch the trendline / wedge support, otherwise chances of wedge breking on the other side increases, is this correct
@ Rajan ,
Ideally above "6101". There are truncated "E"s too in which case it could be lower and 6075-95.
If it moves above 6135, it would negate the "ED" and relabelling with "impulsive" structure will be needed.
@Master,
Is history repeat this time also
http://www.gophoto.it/view.php?i=http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xnTOd8e8JxY/UQJIW0VBK2I/AAAAAAAAAXU/FQMDGLhNQ-0/s1600/NCNIFTY.png#.UQJLsL9J5AA
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ByLulfhFkFE/UQJIbfFFizI/AAAAAAAAAXc/UDeFpdJSPxs/s1600/NCNIFTY1.png
@Hitendra,
Break out of a falling wedge is a bullish sign and signals the end of the downtrend unless prices moves back into the wedge.
Sir IF time permits please update the TT .
Hi Chetas,
to my mind... No fractal count matches except the scenario of C.5 playin out as an Extended Wave.. needs RBI policy to confirm
the count explored is thus
C.1 4770 5349 -579
C.2 5349 5216 133 -23.0%
C.3 5216 5815 -599 103.5%
C.4 5815 5548 267 -44.6%
C.5 5548 6485 -937 161.8% ** in play
View invalid < 5990
@NileshPatil: What happened in history?
manojag - but it came back to 12682 now so do we assume the jury is out? What is the safe number to assume for reversal?
thanks Shriram,
if C3 ha d crossed 1.618, our job would have been simple, but beacuse of the freak -1000 trade, all wavers are confused. Good learning time for me
Aarvee had pointed out the same wave count you have mentioned
xxx
Sir,
Thanks.Refer your post in the evening wherein u had indicated rsi reversed but not prices.
Todays fall in Rsi has been negated at 6055 and turned towards the signal line.likely coincidence to be around 6120 as of now .
yes Chetas
When C.3 is normal wrt C.1, C.5 can either do
1. < than 0.618 x largest (of c.1 , c.3) ; or
2. > 1.618 x Smallest (of C.1, C.3)
This is assuming the lable for C.1 & C.3 are channelled !
in this case C.5 has already done > .618 x C.3
so leaves us wid BULLS only ;-)
me, bear with a bulls mask :)
@Hitendra,
the upper line of a falling wedge is down ward sloping and hence the value would drop by roughly 40 pts, so as long as its above 12545, we should consider this as a break out..
sorry 12645
Parimalji,
May u view post on Tata Steel?
Thanks.
Looks like we are going to close above DHEMA
@master
pl tell me BPCL dev JNSAR,
thanks.
Shriram,
FED FOMC on 30th and i think there is a LTRO related ECB meeting on 30th, so should keep the market buoyant till then is my understanding.
Tata Steel: hrly positive divergence, upmove resisted at 34hrsma.
Thanks Parimalji,
i wl hold longs overnight for possible break of 34hrsma.
Nifty in discount...
average closing now running at 6072, and increasing, if NS sustains above 6077, then avg closing can caome around 6076( high ema )
Looks gap up on monday.
Short squeeze.
6101 wl b crossed.
Feb series wl show 6200 on board.
Master 5 waves done from y'day low?..can we initiate shorts here
pls advice
thank you
can we carry home longs? what will be the sl for jnsar now for monday
will see later, chetas, time to go now
Bye all, happy weekend!
Sorry,
Average closing running at 6073 levels,
hmmm Nf at discount even on adjusted close basis,
Who bought SBIN at 2504?
sbin was buy from 2463 levels @adhindia
now is booking time and going home handsfree
Happy Republic Day to all JN mates.....
By fibonacci market. take support at 6009,and closing above INR 6070 and move to 6148 before RBI. Goodevining master ji and all.
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