Friday, March 13, 2009

Nifty heading into resistance zone with short term near "OB"

Look for a possible negative divergences developing in the intra charts as the upmove progresses past 2740, to book out of longs and for a possible "short" trade.

Charts are self explanatory. Daily trend is firmly up. Weekly continues to be down. The hourly is at the "Overbought" region but without any negative divergences.

Volumes have been high with price rises in many stocks.

For Monday:
Resistances:
R1 @ 2742, 20DMA @ 2739, 5 wk. Ema @ 2737 & 5wk avg @ 2758.
For supports:- Pivot @ 2704, S1 @ 2682, 5Day High ema @ 2674 & 10 DMA @ 2660.

Have a great weekend....







6 comments:

Saif said...

hi ilango...nice analysis ....sent youa query on ur gmail...vanilango@gmail.com ...title -->On Markets..waiting fo ur reply..thx

Ilango said...

Hi Shaq,

I haven't received any mail from you so far.
Resend it.

regards.

ilango

Deepak Kuumar Bhardwaj said...

Hello Sir,

You are best in finding the divergence. Pls if possible post a topic regarding 'How to Find the Divergence'. Sir, How do u find the divergence with the help of MACD or with RSI? In 5 min chart one day there is positive divergence & next day it has negative divergence, like how can we find perfect divergence?

Regards,

Deepak

cdmoorthy said...

Ilango, Hi - I sent you some details to your mail. I wish you could throw some light on this.

Regards

jayrang patel said...

dear sir can you please update your view and chart on reliance as it is main market mover.thanks in advance.

Ilango said...

Hi..Deepak,

If you can play only the divergences play discipline, you can never fail in the market place. It requires tremendous patience to wait for it and a strong belief to board on it.

How to find divergence..is the easiest one. When prices continue to make lower lows but the oscillators such as roc, rsi, macd makes higher lows, there is a +ve div in the making to be confirmed when the price move above 5 ema/avg.And the opposite for -ve div.

When to find divergence....is the toughest one.That is because the euphoria of bullishness or the gloom of the fearful bearishness would overpower our emotions and we are not in control to spot these on time but notice it after the prices have moved far away. One of the reason being self denial.

5.min div result in price reversal lasting 2 to 4 hours......good for intra traders.
Hourly div. result in price reversal lasting 2 to 4 days......good for positional traders.
Daily div. result in price reversal lasting 2 to 4 weeks .....good for short term investors and so on. But subsequent price action & TA set up needs to be followed up to complete the exit.,because there are also divergence traps and failures. But mostly, divergences have resulted in huge returns.

@ Sweety,

I went through the excel document. Interesting. If you can let me know, how you have interpreted so far, I can study and add anything interesting if i find.

@ Jayrang Patel,

Reliance price behaviour of the last few days suggest that it failed to break & stay below 1140. So no weakness. Hence the down moves till 1138 is to be taken as an "abc" correction and an upmove is underway. If 1317 is taken out, a short term bullishness will be in place. Daily macd which was in a bearish mode has turned up & moving up above its trigger.
In summary, RIL, instead of breaking below the triangle formed is on the verge of breaking out of the triangle suggesting an ending diagonal(End of the downtrend).It needs to clear 1317 first.Let us review it from there.

Best regards.

ilango

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