Assuming a bear low is in place at 2539, Market can get a little bit higher upto 2850-2865 area(Remember the highly talked about 2860 area)(If 2815 is not cleared, there is no 2860) and start a corrective move towards 2662-2700 area(Remember the highly talked about 2660 area).
So you have 2660 --2860 as decisive levels for Nifty in the coming days. Below 2660, it can slide towards 2550-2475.
"Channels Breaking" has always given good trading points..Let us also not forget some false breaks, so be prepared for the same as we head into "Settlement week". This settlement started with 2772 and the rolled over shorts are at nearly cost price and only the weak shorts created at the lower levels would have panicked & exited after the world rally. Break of 2772 will boost the confidence of the Strong bears to stay put and may even roll over again. At 2700 & 2665, those shorts may exit the March series and may get rolled over to April series.
However, individual stocks will behave differently in the coming days.. ONGC, RIL, GMR, SAIL & similar ones that have closed at the high points will continue to do well on every dips till settlement but Cement stocks, Bank stocks may see selling pressure.
I continue to maintain that "Investors" should pick their choice of stocks leisurely on every panic dips by having their calculations ready for individual stocks and do it in small parts and increase the buying once signs of bottom & another +ve divergence start visible to us.
"Traders" would find Shorting rewarding once 2772 is broken and halt a while around 2660 to see whether that level holds.
2 comments:
excellent analysis again sir....my doubt is regarding the sub wave labelling....while indentifying the broader channels can be relatively easier compared to the sub wave within them...(like looking from the broader monthly charts we can say this is 5th broad wave going on)
Within those channels how do we label the sub waves with reasonable accuracy...Ex For dow you have shown 5 sub waves in 1 and 3.In that does the sub wave labelling follow extreme ends in the channel...say of (i) was at the support of a downward sloping channel,is it confirmed that (ii) will be on the upward resistance of that channel?? and we label at approx somewhere there.
Also can we have 4 sub waves in a channel,or is it combination of 3 and 5 only...so if 4 appears we can expect 5th subwave to come for sure before the next wave begins in the broader 5th wave.
Thanks
hi Shaq,
You draw the channels by either connecting the extreme tops or extreme bottoms. By doing so , you automatically connect the 1st & 3rd or 2nd & 4th. Generally, 1st & 3rd are connected and a parallel is drawn from 2nd for the target of 4th. Most often the 4th breaks the channel a bit(sign of 4th) and then 5th fall occurs.
There are no 4 wave structures. It is either 3 or 5 or a combination.
There is definitely some uncertainty during the labeling of corrective waves.They can have either 3 or 5 subwaves.So "after the 4th, 5th to follow" can sometimes deceive us. Here, we take some help from TA which shows "OB" readings with some -ve div..Hence, expecting the 5th down..
Best regards.
ilango
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