Thursday, May 5, 2011
Nifty tilting to downsides.
Hour TA exhibited +ve div and reversed from an important "5465" level. Whenever it reaches 5650-5700 zone followed by a -ve div might commence the next part of the fall.
Daily is clearly downtrending but Friday's price action shows a "Pause" which needs to be confirmed today.
Week Prices clearly shows a clear tendency of supports and resistances around a trendline. The same suggests of a supports @ 5300-5320 and resistances @ 5720 and a bit higher for the current week. More weakness follows once the directional indicator moves into negative zone.
Month too exhibits a crucial juncture for the next phase of action. This semi-log chart(Best suitable for LT charts) shows the tendency of the market to trade in the middle channel for the last 24 months which will get broken incase of a move below 5350(Last major swing low being 5348).
Nifty nearing the last of the supports(5350-5450) area while breaking LT trendline.
It is dangerous to bottom pick despite getting short term divergences and cluster supports. You need to take those risks as an aggressive trader and manage your trades. Supports are supports till they are held and they can swiftly change to resistances during strongly trending markets such as this one.
It is only our perception that market might find this one as a support and it gets validated only if a rally emerges.
The positional shorts continue to hold their shorts while part booking near the supports.
And aggressive traders style is one of playing the short swings. Let us not get this one mixed up.
The Hour chart shown earlier had a clear markings of a bear flag. While I expected it to rally high before a break-down, it chose to breakdown immediately.
SAN's chart depicted that breakdown point quite clearly.
Do not hesitate to initiate a trade once a plan is done and once the planned trade is done, stay out to plan the next one..don't rush in hastily. Money saved is money earned.
Lastly..if it is the suspected "C" wave., just hold on to those shorts and use rallies to reinitiate more as long as Tech.table don't turn green in weekly TA. (Now it is in total RED).
Nifty PreMarket View
A gap exists @ 5484-5496...below which 5467(Wk-S3) & 5464(Day-S2) exist. "5470" is the 61.82% retrace for the entire "5177 to 5944 rise".
Short term showed first sign of bounce but failed to hold.
Bank Nifty, however, held and closed above both Hour & Day Pivots.
These are signs for an aggressive buys during the exhausting dips as well as Part booking of shorts. 5465-5495 seem to be such an exhausting dip area..+/-10.
Short term showed first sign of bounce but failed to hold.
Bank Nifty, however, held and closed above both Hour & Day Pivots.
These are signs for an aggressive buys during the exhausting dips as well as Part booking of shorts. 5465-5495 seem to be such an exhausting dip area..+/-10.
Note the Day Low ema of today's which would act as a main resistance. A close above that DLEma would signal a sideways market for a while just as a close below DHEma signals a sideways market during an uptrend.
Enter the market with a determination to make money with a well thought-out plan...Challenge the market with your plans...Never try to be "right"..Just make money. To measure your level of patience, ask yourself, how many points you scored in the last fall from "5898 to 5503". If you have done well, then start making the next plan. If not, enquire deep into its reasons - lack of faith in your studies..or lack of studies/ plans. Don't just float around..do things firmly.



Wednesday, May 4, 2011
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