Retracement strategy, a must for traders.
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
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I 'll always be there for you. To make you feel that you're secured. And even if the rain is pouring hard and the sky is almost dark... -
5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ... -
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
80 comments:
Reposting..
5010 is important for today ... it is 61.8% retracement and also
5011 is 200 MA on hourly charts.
5010 is channel line and support ..below witch 5th down wave could start otherwise still i
n 4th up.as per my date calculation nifty hold
these level till 27th sep..book your long...
5th wave may start after 27th sep.
The Federal Reserve’s Operation Twist was everything it was cracked up to be, and even a bit more.
While the stock market was less than impressed with the central bank’s latest stimulus plan, the bond market was all for it.
And why not?
The Fed announced it would direct $400 billion from the sale of Treasurys of three years and less in duration and invest it in those with maturities of six to 30 years.
The total was about $100 billion more than expected and an indication that the Twist—which seeks to lower long-term borrowing costs by compressing the yield curve for government debt—was on in a big way.
“This is about as aggressive as you can be without actually expanding the balance sheet,Will it work? Is there going to be less debt in the system or more? There’s going to be more. The Treasury’s obligations are going to come due.”
Following the news, the market for government debt jumped. The benchmark 10-year note saw its yield shrink below 1.90 percent and the long bond, with duration of 30 years, threatened to dip below 3 percent.
Though the trading was choppy at first, investors eventually sold shorter-dated notes.
In brief, the market quickly tried to front-run the Fed’s operations , which will take place between now and June 2012.
For those looking to the Fed to conduct an actual quantitative easing operation, in which, as Ferry said, the central bank tries to stimulate the economy by electronically printing money, the news was disappointing.
In the previous two versions of QE, investors reacted enthusiastically, pumping up the equities market in hopes that the Fed’s debt-buying would goose economic activity.
When the news came Wednesday afternoon confirming there would be no balance-sheet expansion, the stock market sold off—at first fairly aggressively but then paring back to somewhat modest losses.
“The big takeaway for us is: In the struggle to pass meaningful monetary policy actions that would stimulate the economy, (Fed Chairman) Ben Bernanke failed,” Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics in Austin, Texas, said in a note. “There is no QE3. We believe that the internal struggle within the Fed to reduce the risk of recession and deflation by engaging in further quantitative easing was resolved with this half-hearted compromise. .”
The other interesting part of the Fed’s statement was its intentions to reinvest principal payments from its holdings of debt and mortgage-backed securities from government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in agency mortgage-backed securities.
That falls a bit outside the definition of a “Twist” but is indicative that the central bank is intent on keeping mortgage rates low as well.
The question for the Fed going forward is what kind of market it will find for all its longer-dated securities down the road. Bernanke and the supporting members on the Fed who approved the statement in a 7-3 vote are essentially not concerned with what inflationary pressures will be exerted by all the money printing.
“Officials point to further amelioration of commodity and energy prices following a slide from a peak, while the Fed also noted that longer-term inflation expectations remain stable,You can take this as somewhat of a poke in the eye to those claiming inflationary implications of earlier rounds of quantitative easing.”
They had better be right, considering the capital-eroding effect that inflation has on longer-term bonds. Should inflation pressures ratchet up, the Fed could find itself awash in long-term debt for which there will be no market.
“They’re buying valueless securities, negative-yielding securities, and holding to maturity, “Assuming the economy comes back, who are they going to sell them to?”
http://www.megaupload.com/?d=3E8GCSAI
Bernake has done nothing If 2 Stimulus could not help the economy then how can reshuffling of money help the economy
Can any one send the EMA custom indicator for MT4
developed by Sri Crorepathi to skrkacs@gmail.com
Four small red candles all around a big green candle in daily chart...looks like bulls in custody today..:))
Wonder if that can be termed as evening star..
Relief for bears..Dracula khush hua :)
-stockgrp
Hey Rich where is the AFL?
ril bleeding :)
@SAM,
Today I used my small brain.. I shorted (1 lot only) NF @ 5045 NS and covered here. I planned 2nd lot short between @ 5070-90 level. I got minimum points only
@Ricahrdiaz
Reliance last support - 805
Nifty -5000
Good Noon Pcpmitpra
@Prabhakar I booked part profit and now I m holding rest with SL at cost.
@pcsmitpra : Very good afternoon !
samji,
u want that afl?:)only play hrly to hrly and mint money
with it no tension at all.
Stogrp - :) :) bears cakewalk upto sponge support 5K next 4981?? if taken out then "big long jump downside" with a small retracement??? enjoyyyyyyy
@SAM: Today I am against rule.
Dinesh Rishi said...
Anything is possible in Love, War and Stock Market.
September 8, 2011 3:17 PM
dineshwa went on vacation as he knew that
to take new longs he will have to wait for
this bear party to be over:)
Yes Prabhakar it is true.
EW thought for longs - ( disclosure: i am short by JNSAR )
Assuming A-B-C-D-E between 4910-5168,
and we in D down now,
From 5168, abc down with
D.a at 5000,
D.b to 5100
D.c to 4920 ???
Looking closely, C was a 3 wave up.
as of now from WHEMA to WLEMA.. 5166 to 4951
@Pcpmitpra
Ameen
richardsdiaz could you mail this (afl) to goggle group of justnifty?
Sujatha said:
The only time I really ever lost money was when I broke my own rules. Jesse Livermore
Mam,
Booked out the first lot too early :((
61.8% retrac lvl from 5168/4911 is 5009.
Broken.
61.8% retrac lvl from 5168/4720 is 4891.
This is to be watched.
in b/w 4945/4940 is also important.
At present, mkt needs new positive signal for upmove
& that is lacking.
pdd
@Hitendra
At present just rocking :)
Cooldent Same here... but who knows what is going to happen next so wanted to protect some profits.
Hitendra said...
At present, mkt needs new positive signal for upmove
No positive is positive for me :))
all the puts have doubled since morning
@Ilango
A possibility of an intra day bounce to 5040?
rrknan said...
all the puts have doubled since morning
every time there is movement of 2% and above options double/reduce to half:)
one has to be at the rt side of trade:) gamblers can double their money or
lose half of their cpital playing options in no time
4800 PUT price change percenatage -> 255% (7.7 to 29)
going long at 4992
sam,
since morng, mkt attempted to recover.
but halts by appr 20 points.
If we consider 100 points range of last few days,
then 4960 is posiible from today's high.
REV IS 5085.......from current low.
pddd
@RICHARDSDIAZ
This time its different form 5020 to 5175 three days and form 5175 to 4976 just 3 hours :)
@Hitendra
Technically 4874 is possible --- :)
Dear Illango:
I am little confused and hence writing to you, by no means trying to accuse.
As per JNSAR day before I was holding shorts and booked at 5040 level and at 5020 break went short. I was holding all of yesterday and booked at 5130 considering the JNSAR was up only. Today I am again at a big loss as I took a long. Hence I am very confused and ofcourse lost a lot.
Will appreciate your guidance to be a good trader and not losing money with your guidance.
Regards
BB
POWERTRADE said...
@RICHARDSDIAZ
This time its different form 5020 to 5175 three days and form 5175 to 4976 just 3 hours :)
:) always the bear attack is fast and furious
Stockgrp - almost done 4981 :)
cooldent - no worry..that habit is good actually yes me too booked early @ 5040 waited till 5020 decesive break which is Cam weekly L3 then only i shorted covered @ 4981. now in opposite camp with TSLif my SL hits means "i have to bow and deserve it" :D as usual.
PS : Wishful thinking all these 130 points -ve should turn as +ve :D
Sujatha mam,
Tell target also. so i can re enter ;)
In mrng fight was at 5050 and now at 5000 ..dhishhum dhishhum..
@Sam
5000 surrendered now
Enjoying PT:))
Now Bears have no Fear as BIGBULL DR is on leave.
Chart/TT updated.
Cooldent - no. it's risky against the trend :) my october "puts" are still open am aiming sensex target and trading nifty :P so no target for me..will hold with "trailing SL"
@marketpulse,
Thx for the OI info. Do you have some tutorial on how
to interpret this table from a beginner standpoint ?
In the call side, you say "short buildup". But I dont
see any rows related to just "going long" both on
call and put.
I am pretty ignorant in reading OI data.
Cool - sorry forgot my SL - SL is 4956 weekly cam L4 i booked out @ FIBO 78% as per weekly
@Ilango
wave iii @ 4720 low why removed those labeling?
that count still valid right?
Expecting market to recover in the next two hours
Closing 5035-50.
+Div on 5 min chart?
Tharts from times apart 1930 and 2011.
The first shows how wave B was followed by wave
1 down into the halfway mark of B and
then wave 2 was a minor h&s that broke down.
The recent chart of the Dow shows the same
but spread over more time. 2009-2011 was wave B.
1 down from there near the halfway point of B
where it halted.
The recent multi
week halt has the look of a H&S with neckline at 10800, below which we are headed to 8500
pretty quickly
i.e. based on 3=1.618*1 as it was in 1930.
The short term momentum indicators
turned into sell on the Dow and
US indices on yesterdays close
so watch out for what is coming.
rohit's view....
what if 10800/8500 to india...
pdd
It's hard to estimate what is coming up in this market. If you think you are able to, then you are doing to wrong trade, even if you are making profit.
@ BB,
You sold when JNSAR triggered @ 5020 on Monday. But the same day, after triggering, it moved up to 5041 which triggered our JNSAR+20 points filter reversal. And even if you did not change your trade on Monday, the next day-20th, the JNSAR was 5022 and you should have changed your trade to Long.
And then there is part booking when JNSAR moves up by 50/100+ points.
And today when JNSAR triggered @ 5051, the NF was @ a premium and when it fell, it had a discount and from 5055-4975, it is a 80points of which you could have part booked a minimum of 50+.
You are using JNSAR without understanding the concept of SAR- Stop & reverse. It means you are always in a trade - long above it & short below it.
I suggest you understand this concept well along with part booking strategy with a minimum 2 lots for trade.
vix is surging
As per hour TF 127% retracement is complete for the wave AB 5017 - 5170 - which is the first target for C.
Similarly 76.4% retr is complete for the wave 4911 to 5169 NS in Day TF
Sir,
as per ur charts/tt
we may expect 4965/45/11 in coming days?
pdd
Europe too has opened 2-3% negative after yesterday's fall.
@ Sujatha,
Whats the next level if 4956 gets breached?
Sir
What about "the huge upmove"?? is it possible if it reverse from here??
tks n advance.
@ Sujatha:
I hope it does... the 5th doesnt seem to have started... cause the move is not convincingly impulsive to me... but we never know...
am long as of now.. with ur SL
Bullish Shark Pattern Update:
Bullish Shark Pattern update
@ BB and all new visitors,
I too have made a lot of mistakes in understanding
JNSAR concept. But with regular guidance of Sir and
seniors I am finding my feet now.
Sir with your permission I am adding my strategy
of JNSAR. I go in the direction of JNSAR long or short.
At the time of booking profit I purchase mini nifty
at the same price and wait for next JNSAR trigger.
This is reducing my tension as I am in the trend and yet
I dont loose more than the profits gained. This is
good for people with less money also.(like me).
Dow will have it tonight!
Thanks Mates...
Anil,
Was inspired by the Pivot indicator which you showed.
Prabhakar,
Don't have AmiBroker as it's paid software, so not in a position to write AFL code.
Those who wonder what all this is about
MT4
You can download GCI MT4 which provides NF for free and live from Here
dn side 4942-11
Falling wedge forming ???
@satheesh why shark is still bullish when all Fishes are bearish?
Just joking....
reversed from 4985.
but failed to cross recent 5004.
Hangsang just 5 minutes to close &
trading ----- 920 pointsssssss.
PT,
Enjoyinggggg
pdd
@Ilango
wave iii @ 4720 low why removed those labeling?
that count still valid right?
Rupee falls to 49
@ SAM,
When all are Bearish - the Last Wave BC reaches its max target and it will be easy to fish from there!! BIG and HUGE fishes can be caught!! :)
@Rich sent u mail
@ Sujatha,
Daily Lead indicator would be turning down today and as per EW, the dreaded "v"th stares at us.
If Nifty holds 4945/65 or 4900/10, it may be possible as a complex "x" wave but for that to happen, the fall should slow down and time correction should set in.
Settlement range is 4720 to 5170=450 points and the mid point is 4945. As the settlement gets closer, latest price action will prevail.
S&P 500 is at an important support line. Breaking below this will cause more pain for US markets and rest of the world.
S&P 500 chart updated
@Manish,
"iii"rd @ 4720 remains. I have removed it to concentrate on the "ivth/ X".
New Post Done.
Me a happy man now -- Dreaded 5th Wave:)
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