Only a close above 4710 will bring back the momentum. A close below 4600 will signal deeper correction.
Prices weakened after negative divergences. Minor channel bottom comes around 4595 - 4620 zone, breaking the same may lead to 4580-4565. Retracements for the rise from 4353 to 4743 comes @ 4595(38%) & 4548(50%). Any bounces at this stage may be upto 4676(38%), 4689(50%), 4701(61.82%).
5 comments:
Hi Ilango ji,
Nice analysis as usual.
I think until 4550 is taken out we may consider this as a pullback, and one can accumulate in this dip. Please let me know your views.
-Doji.
hello sir, i want to trade in nifty, but i dont have much knowledge in technical, how i should use ur blog, or how to use ur calls, help me pls, till now my nifty trades are only lossmaking,
prakash duraisamy
9176019453
chennai
Hi..Doji,
Thank you. yes, the most obvious looking possibility is that Nifty is correcting the new upmove of 4353 - 4743 after developing negative divergences.A reasonable retracement for this bullish upmove should be restricted to 4595(38%) & 4548(50%). 4635 was an intra day support below the 4650 mark and Nifty has taken support on it yesterday.
The daily oscillators such as 12 day roc, macd have been making lower tops since the Post election rally while Nifty has been making higher tops. That is to be remembered while riding this current uptrend.
Volumes are on the decline. However, individual stocks have been making new highs of this uptrend suggesting a Nifty following suit soon. Open Interest too shows bullish possibilities.
And finally the world markets, as shown in my Monday morning post, need to hold certain critical levels and start to move up. hang seng which has been consolidating for the last 10 days is very close to the major channel support. I will watch that index for signs of reversal or break down.
Let me add here that your analysis of the market is quite objective and consistent. Your stocks analysis is always on the mark and profitable.
Wishing you to continue your excellent work and keep that objectivity.
Best regards.
ilango
Hi..Prakash,
Each call has a heading, either Conservative trade or Aggressive Trade.
What you see on the top rightside of my blog is updated every evening with Profit accrued or booked.
Each morning I try to post the "Aggressive trade". As conservative trade is a slow one, it is not posted in the morning(Some exceptions) but is still there in the blog right topside.
Postings of mornings are archived and it relates mostly to the aggressive trade lasting few hours to 2 days but the postings of "right topside" is changed every evening and it has any changes in SL & profit to be booked for the next day.
In conservative trade only one trade has been booked since a long initiated on 15.07.09 @ 4166 and booked on 06.08.09 @ 4571 and reversed to a short trade @ 4571 and the same was reversed to a Long trade @ 4600 on 24.08.09 with a SL @ 4565. Seeing the negative divergences we booked out @ 4705 on 31.08.09 and are short @ 4650.It was supposed to be a book profits and reenter at lower levels close to 4580. But this short trade was entered erroneously as it does not meet the criteria set for this trade set up. It will be closed today and we will stay long with a SL of 4580 today.
I am just keeping a record of things to prove a point that conservative trades generally bring in the big money but with less excitement.
I will put a simple narration for a few days along with my recommendation for easy understanding.
However, let me add here that you need to study the markets either from Technical analysis or Elliott wave analysis or F&O data study or any other method to have a "Direct knowledge" of the market.Only that can bring you consistent profits. Please understand that I am not giving calls but education & application of that analysis into a tradeable strategies. Only if you believe in them you will be able to sit through your positions.
I hope you will find them useful.
Best regards.
ilango
Thanks Ilango ji, for such great explanation and nice words.
-Doji
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