Nifty found support at 2900 today and closed near last week's close.
There is another channel bottom comes at 2800 below which downtrend will become faster.
Though hourly indicators are at the bottom, there are no +ve divergences.Hence, further lows are possible.
If Asian Cues are + ve,we may have a bounce(2900 holds) to 2960, above which to 3000.
If Asian cues are - ve, a fall below 2900 towards 2860 failing which 2800 possible.
As the daily technicals are in down mode, use any bounces to sell only.
Imp: Ability of the market to find a bottom near 2800-2860 area and reverse in the next 2 to 3 days will help reach higher levels.However, a decisive fall below 2800 may lead to much lower levels/ new lows.
These are the two options for which the clues should emerge in the next few days.
Another Major point is that we will be ending the year & the month in the next 4 days.Month has performed well thus far but the year is quite catostrophic. So to which end it will go to close...monthly bullish or yearly bearish..??
The Indian Market Monitor: Sensex and Bankex
5 comments:
Hello Ilango Sir,
from last 2 days ie yesterday and today nifty is moving in a very small range 20-30 points like today it was locked in for almost 3 hrs in 2530 to 2550
trading in such days becomes very difficult infact these are loss making days
i got many wipsaw in these 2 days and most of the time my SL got hit, sirji how to identify such days ??? i mean most of the time i came to know this when i have done 3-4 trades and all goes wrong because nifty moves in a small range in both directions
another Question is can we reduce this wipsaws by trading only in the direction of the trend the one we find @ ORB in first 15 min
awaiting your reply , thanks a lot for posting those short stories :)
Hi..NiftyTrader,
We have to keep in mind the settlement closing dates when trading is difficult due to both long & short unwinding & rollovers.
Other than that, Nifty reversed at the top by closing at the lower end(First clue, an important one) and Tue and Wed, Nifty opened gap down(Actual openings are not reflected in the data, esp for NSE), thereby taking away some points for the trade leaving us with very little.
World over the holiday season has brought down the volumes and the markets have trended down keeping in mind the larger trend.
There is no method that can tell us whether Nifty may trade narrow or wide..Most of the month it has given a spread of nearly 100 points everyday and that is very good comparing all the other markets. So we should be highly appreciative of that fact and ignore a few whipsaw days.
Lets look forward to more interesting, challenging and wide trading days.
Best regards
Hello sir,
u wrote "Though hourly indicators are at the bottom, there are no +ve divergences" so which indicators u look at for +ve divergence.
Regards
Hi..Meet,
As the daily is in downtrend(short term), hourly being just in oversold does not really help but a positive divergences in it might be of some clue to a likely reversal.
The point I am highlighting is keep the larger time frame in mind and trade the shorter time cycle.
Let the daily slow down, coupled with a hourly reversal will be an early indication of a reversal.
Best regards
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