Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Once weakness creeps into higher T/F, highs become unsustainable..

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Prices, having closed below month pivot, set the stage for "range bound market" for awhile...

Approach the market with a "Prime study" of your choice.
Understand it better by using "Secondary studies", preferably 2 or 3 to the maximum.
Wait patiently for these studies to align better, if not the best, and then make your trading plan.
Always, weigh your risk reward considering all the time frames, giving more weightage to higher t/f and choose a reasonable level to initiate a trade using the lower t/f's volatility.
When you initiate your trade based this way, there will be tremendous level of discomfort as your secondary studies would not be confirming and the counter trend moves are swift & powerful to unsettle even the experienced.- The uncomfortable trade yesterday would have rewarded the believers of trend.
Prices continue to close between HEma & LEma but owing to "downtrend", the highs are not sustainable.
Downtrend in week/ Day T/f does not have momentum besides having "month in uptrend" makes the prices correct in stages. There will be sharp falls followed by corrective rises.
As the chart below suggests, prices are most likely to reach the channel bottom as long as they are kept below "8040 & 8100".
For more weakness to manifest, Hour technicals should gather downward momentum & break "day Channel bottom".