Thursday, July 17, 2014

Nifty consolidates intra for averages to do "catching up"...

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Sir,
I am refering to you labelling and chart at
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-WpH9mQI2Vlk/U8ZVokk-HUI/AAAAAAABOj8/TWbDryK-B9c/s1600/1.JPG
Typically first line (upper trend line) joining end of wave 1 to next peak ( purportedly peak of wave 3 ), and than draw parallel lines through the bottom of wave 2 etc.
However in this instance one of the early peak 7564 ( election result day ) was left out. 
Instead upper trend line is drawn from 6575 through the 7700. 
Please throw some light on the reason for not drawing a line from 6819 to 7564 ?
I do feel that the 4th wave break of the channel in your diagram and back inside the channel gives credence to 4th wave scenario for the recent low. However this  is realized only because your talent to draw the channel lines as you have done.
Please make me understand the way you have marked these trend lines in your leisure time.
Suggestions:
Trendlines are, otherwise, called demand and supply lines. The more points they connect/ touch, more relevant they become.
During an uptrend, the demand(support line) outweighs the supply and hence you get immediately support points to draw the demand-support trendline.
After a while, the supply starts to outweigh in brief spells of time and this new information needs to fit in. And hence, we draw another line connecting the tops, especially "more points" leaving out the "excesses"(which are not reliable), thus making a supply-resistance trendline.
When you make a parallel trendline of this new supply-resistance trendline connecting the support points, a new demand-support trendline emerges.(Sometimes, they both coincide and no new channel is made)
The recent example is the two different trendlines drawn in Hour trend indicator chart and Hour lead indicator chart. In the Hour trend indicator chart, more reliable recent support points were considered and thus the break-out (demand outrunning the supply) could be spotted much early on at 7495 and then again at 7550.
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FII's have started to buy again, after 3 days of minor selling- a consolidation within the major uptrend. Prices, in the short term, have closed above the two key ST averages. (As long as prices close above these, technicals remain strong; only a close/sustaining below it would reverse the ST trend)
The ST direction is "biased UP"(attempted bounce gaining hugely), as long as prices stay above 7572-84 & close above these two key averages (21 or 34 hr smas).
The strategy that has worked consistently well with low risk-high reward ratio is "Initiating a trade at 50%-61.8% retrace with 80% as SL". Adapt to it.
Aggressively Holding above 7588(20dsma), Conservatively Holding above 7561(DEma), rally continues.... Aggressively Holding below 7661(61.8%), Conservatively Holding below 7707(R2), correction could resume....