Thursday, April 10, 2014

Nifty, uptrending, loses all its gains & more..

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty Pre-Market View.

The moment we try to standardise our approach to market, we invite many whipsaws. Guidelines are fine but following needs understanding market behaviour.
I stress the need to understand this behaviour of market by using a combination of studies such as EW, TA patterns, TT, FII's flow and OI tendency. Markets are never the same due to the combination of various t/f working & EW cycles. Though repetition happens, the intensity varies.
We noticed a sideways market when prices closed below DHEma on 03rd April. A JNSAR trader should have sold the next two days and covered before EOD; on the 2nd day prices reached DLEma less 20(6648) and reversed. A JNSAR trader should have held on to their position towards DHEma+20(6768) and seeing the strength in the upmove, the position should have been trailing for which we keep updating the "last rise retracements".
Writing CE & holding it should be for a very small time period when Day is down & week is up. Give weightage to week till it develops weakening signals such as a pattern or a divergence or a close below WHEma.
If you find yourself unable to reverse a counter trend trade at the appropriate time, do not do such trades. We have stressed repeatedly the nature of this uptrend that prices have broken out after a 4 years consolidation. And that means some strength. Take advantage of this trend till it is spent.
We have also suggested that the 1st rise gave 1300 points from 5119 to 6360/6405 and the next will give a min. of 1300 to much more...1.618x1300 or 2x1300or 2.618x1300....
Many JNSAR traders have ignored the "prices continually closing above JNSAR" except those strong-belief-followers while others get carried away by intraday swings.
To follow consistently, one needs to understand this market and stay in the in the direction..
Taking into BN's price pattern which is not "corrupted", we treat the rise from 6650 as the "v"th wave of the rise from 5933. It is possible that waves could be sub-dividing for much more highs. Hence, take this view with a little caution..
We have seen 40-75 pts hour correction and we have seen 120-130 pts day correction and we are "likely" to see 200-250 pts of weekly correction once this "v"th wave is done and prices close below WHEma...
(i) done at 6734 and the same should not be breached when the (iv)th unfolds after the completion of (iii).
Has the (iii)rd completed ? Following the retrace(pref.38%) of the rise from 6705 would guide..