Fight the good fight....fall down soon to find yourself.

The most important thing in the Olympic Games is not winning but taking part; the essential thing in life is not conquering but fighting well. – Pierre de Coubertin.
Everyone on earth has his/her own view of success. Success of great people achieving great things has always been surrounded by different facts and stories, some of them accurate and most of them inaccurate. There is always a serious pressure on the side of historians and academicians to portray more of the success of “so-called” great people rather than the actual failures they endured to achieve the success. The academicians are not to be blamed as we’ve for generations created a thinking system that looks at “failure/mistake” as something to be avoided and awkward.

Nifty closing below the critical 5200 ahead of month end.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty Pre-Market View

As stated in EOD post, Nifty enters the crucial week with weak TA. Below 5195 or 5210 or 5225, it continues to be weak and susceptible for deeper falls. Till strength signalling(TT) price moves are not seen, stay with the colour of TT.

Nifty enters the crucial week with weak technicals.

Congrats to the April "series Close contest" winners,
SANPOT @ 5189, WLEma
LEARNTOEARN @ 5188, LEma
Shabsaif @ 5187, ATP of last two days.
Congrats to Jiignesh and DineshRishi and to all the enthusiastic participants.
Please do note down the reasons the winners have got it right in this series as well as the earlier series to help you plan your trades. Trading closer to the lower end of the series range and having a narrow spread of the series, Nifty has ended lower/subdued.
Two critical days ahead -Week end and Month end and the technicals are bearish.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty Pre-Market View.

If Nifty's rise is contained around either @5225-35 or @ 5245-60 in the opening session, it could fall again. This is based on EW 4th wave unfolding from 5161 and then the 5th wave fall towards 200sma-5140 or lower.. On the other hand, these sub-waves could be relabelled as 5 completed and hence the rise could continue. But this view doesn't fit in with the normally "volatile settlement day". 61.8% @ 5273 beyond which strength emerges and gets confirmed above 80% @ 5306.

Nifty completes a 5 with a double bottom but the confirmation of a reversal still eludes.

Nifty entering the settlement with a trading mode, having closed below all High emas and above all Low emas, typical of a range bound settlement during which one needs to keep taking away profits till a direction is known. And the direction will be known with clues from next 3 trading days...settlement day, week end Friday, Month end Monday.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday update-I

Nifty Pre-Market View

The Pause, despite oversold Hour TA, remained shallow and subdued and could retrace upto 5232 only. Depending on the opening session, it'll be known whether "iv"th ended at close or the "pause continues in the opening session". Weakness would continue trading below 5230 and increases below 5215. Above 5230, resistances are in the zone of 5248-5260.

Nifty pauses with a close above all Low emas..

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

Dear Raichand Shah,

Many, many Happy returns of the day.

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"5234-5263"-38%, 50%, 61.8% retracements and DLEma, DEma reside and is an ideal zone to initiate sell with 5286(80%) as a SL.

Though Hour TA is oversold for a mild bounce, day TA has confirmed a down and hence use the bounces to initiate sells. The depth of the correction would depend on 27th & 30th April closes(Week & Month)
Falling below month's JNSAR-5092 should ring in the first alarm bells.
"5077" a critical low made during the 4531 to 5630 may be considered as a major trigger for downsides.

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Dinesh Rishi has stated simply " Longs above SAR and Shorts below SAR". Can it get ever simpler than this. A number good enough to reflect this sentiment is JNSAR. To Manage the trade when SAR is being triggered, we have few options and the same is being discussed and written about under the label "JNSAR". Read them first before posing your queries. When Nifty breaches JNSAR number, does it require a "certification" from an experienced hand to announce "JNSAR triggered". If you do need one, what you lack is not knowledge but belief, conviction and confidence. No one could give you that. YOU have to take baby steps and expose yourself to the market with YOUR trades and gain confidence. How long are you going to sit around and procrastinate..? Make up your mind and do not waste anymore of your precious life and those of others. Lord Krishna says, "In doing your karma, all your negatives dissolve." Action alone will resolve and action based on sound judgement will make it easier. Need we say more.

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Nifty, despite weak cues, pulled back upto "break dn point of 5310" and started a big fall...

I have requested "Piyush Sharda" to take up the task of clarifying JNSAR queries and also asked him to co-ordinate with another 3 or 4 experienced JNSAR traders to help him in this task to ease up the load.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

Reader:Please send me Tehnical analysis excel sheet.
Ans: Download the file from the link given at the top right corner of this blog as "JustNifty TA"
Reader: I was trying to find some corelation between TA and abrupt fast fall/rise. Infact I was seeing divergence in the 35D hourly chart , but was not sure as market sentiment was upmove and waiting to break 5338.
On the same line I was wondering to catch some meaningful inference , would it be wise to track 30 minutes and 60 minutes chart in parallel.
I tried to create the same and see the divergence was quite prominent in 30minutes chart.
My query...
Is my inference right or I need to fine tune further.
Is it worth investing time in 30 minutes chart , and derive some moves aligned with higher T/F.
In day T/F , if price doesn't move north on Monday , are we back in CT.
Lastly thanks for creating such a nice excel file , it so awesome .I rely on it .Just I am not able to draw trend line and Chanel there , may be there woud be some option to be explored.
Ans: While you were trying to look for a break-out above 5338, you should have kept an eye on break down below 5310, a point where Nifty took support thrice in 2 days.
Why 30min & 60min TA only? Any T/F would give you points commensurate with the T/F but at the same time whipsaws as well as SL would change as per T/F. Higher the T/F lesser the whipsaw & larger the SL and vice versa.
This CT has more or less failed. We would know today. This correction could get deeper. 5335 & 5265 would decide today. You could draw trendlines in the file.
Reader: Please let me know which system should i use to do intraday trade and positional trade. I have used various moving averages but confused. Plese provide me with some method to earn. If i sell nifty at overbought zone(greed) shown in your chart will it work.
Ans: Read the write ups under the title "Always start trading with these" - at the top right corner of this blog.
Reader: Sir in respect of today’s sharp move whipsawing D-JNSAR as far as 90 points away, what I did is reversed (taken SHORT) @ SAR level in future, but couldn’t revers again to LONG as it was so fast.
As you said - HHEMA indicating possible reversion might have been used but again that would be against D-JNSAR position.
Sir, I need your help in this respect as what one should do in such situation.
Ans: Actually it was fast to create shorts but slow to reverse to longs. As some would observe the 5 min price close, JNSAR-5259 did not trigger. As per our original JNSAR write up, which is followed by Crorepathi, JNSAR short is triggered when prices breached it. It will be managed from today. For those 5-min followers, JNSAR would be 5266 & they may or may not apply filter today.Trading/ closing below HEmas suggest of loss of upward momentum and hence "trading time" until prices closes below LEmas at which point downward momentum would set in.
Reader: You have mentioned 1.41 pm fast rise setup in this hour.In that hour nifty rose. After 2.00 pm fall was so fast.
sir please tell me how to identify the setup with numbers of today, whenever you have spare time in this weekend.
Ans: Please check the Label section for Fast fall/ rise. These are MA(moving averages set ups) suggesting a potential and they fail at times but is managed with "invalidation" point. As per Yahoo intra chart of Friday, breach of 200min Ema @ 5310 was the invalidation point which coincided with the recent support point.
Reader: i have been following your blog for around 4-5 months......i am trying to understand what you teach but the thing which confuse me the most is different time frame like today when mkt broke above 5315 (daily pivot) for the first time hourly stoch was above 90 even though daily had scope for up move , i got scared n didnt buy a call n this is not the first time this has happened to me .....i know this is lack of confidence but it always happens to me if i see hourly OB but daily showing space for up move n i buy a call it falls very fast n i have kept a SL of 500 for any put call taken so i suffer a loss...........so my question is how to over come this different T/F confusion...........i mostly buy put/call looking at hourly chart so it ok if i just look at on hourly n daily T/F and ignore weekly n monthly all together so as to reduce my confusion.
Ans: There is no confusion in different T/F. You are not able to accept the facts. You have too much thinking going on in your head..too much chattering. Your thoughts aren't clear.
If you follow technical analysis, follow it with belief and not with fear. Before you enter your trade, you are mentally dreading that you'll lose the money. With this mind set up, you will make sure, you lose.
Make a very simple small trading plan and start to make smaller gains to gain in confidence. Stop talking about theories/ systems/ methods/ studies, etc. All these are meant to be tools to make money once you understand the market better with such studies.
As you make money, forget about each winnings or even losses (keep them to the minimum). Never get excited about your success.
Reader: I have been following your blog for last 2 -3 months. Its quite impressive,Sir, I am in a big loss, almost having lost 3 Lakhs in share market.
Do you think it is recoverable ? I am in real trouble.
I work in a office so can not get much time to follow the market minutely.
I downloaded your file. There are so many parameters. Sir, following only the JNSAR number and not considering any other (Emas, pivots, Global cues, bank nifty etc) would be good ? Please suggest.
Ans: Firstly, you must remove this thought of recovery. And you must do things differently to achieve different results. Know the market with the use of TA written in this blog (or elsewhere) and if you have belief, enter and if not, save the remaining money. Since you have no time to monitor the markets during the day, follow JNSAR on closing basis and also take trades only in the "Long" sides (Dinesh Rishi Strategy) whenever it happens. I would reconsider restarting "positional strategy" based on week/ Day T/F". Follow them as per Pre-Market only. And Get Rich slowly and Quietly.

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"5327-35" continues to be resistances and weakness starts from below 5291 for selling (Even JNSAR) and the last support for the day is 5200-5215.

Whenever a correction does not terminate at the normal time period and established patterns are mimicked but reversals fails (eg: CT), bears get active.