Saturday, February 11, 2012

"Evano oruvan"...S O M E O N E ...

Make your life into a giving. When I say a giving, it is not to be understood as an act. Giving as an act is a deception because, after all, what can you give? Everything that we have, including this body, we have taken from this planet. What we can give is only a paltry part of what we have taken. Giving as an act could be very deceptive and could turn ugly, but if your way of being is giving and your actions are only a manifestation of that, when you open your heart to give, grace invariably seeps in. That is inevitable.
It has been my fortune and privilege that at a very early age, I became witness to a certain state of giving -- my great grandmother who lived to be 113 years of age. In the morning, if she was given breakfast, she would always go about giving away at least two-thirds of it to the ants, birds and squirrels, particularly to the ants.

Friday, February 10, 2012

Nifty continues to struggle @ around 5400.


Nifty Intraday Update-III



Nifty Intraday Update-II



Nifty Intraday Update-I



Nifty PreMarket View

"Triangles" generally precede a short term Top. Nifty broke out of a contracting triangle yesterday.
"ORB" and Day pivot would be used.
For intraday traders, only the opening session is based on previous TA. Subsequently new TA start to develop during the day which is unknown to us. Traders try to figure it out using very short term T/F tools which carry high risk/ high reward factors.
Use them only if you are proficient in them. Be prepared to accept the strength/ weaknesses displayed by the flowing prices and "go with the flow/ trend".

Thursday, February 9, 2012

Nifty, indecisive till 3.00PM, decided to continue its trend.


Rising Three Methods Bullish

Pattern: Continuation
Trend: Bullish
Reliability: High

How to Identify it

  • The first day is a long white day

  • The second, third, and fourth days have small real bodies and follow a brief downtrend pattern, but stay within the range of the first day

  • The fifth day is a long white day that closes above the close of the first day

What it Means

In an uptrend, a long white day occurs, following by three days of small real bodies that fall into a short downtrend. On the fifth day, the bulls come in strong to close at a new high. This small downtrend, in between two long white days, is consistent with investors taking a break. The upward trend should continue.

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Mat Hold Bullish

Pattern: Continuation
Trend: Bullish
Reliability: High

How to Identify it

  • The first day is a long white day

  • The second day gaps up and is a black day

  • The second, third, and fourth days have small real bodies and follow a brief downtrend pattern, but stay within the range of the first day

  • The fifth day is a long white day that closes above the close of the first day

What it Means

The Mat Hold pattern is similar to the Rising Three Methods pattern. In an uptrend, a long white day occurs, following by three days of small real bodies that fall into a short downtrend. On the fifth day, the bulls come in strong to close at a new high. It appears that attempts to reverse the trend occurred, but failed. The upward trend should continue.

Nifty Intraday Update-III



Nifty Intraday Update-II



Nifty Intraday Update-I



Nifty PreMarket View

Though Nifty managed to close above DHEma, the action happened at overstretched zone and hence its reliability is doubted. Besides market has displayed a hanging man, Bearish Belt Hold and Inside day at the top after many days of uptrend.
For the day, one would be short below 5365 towards recent lows of 5325 breaking which S2-5292 is the 1st target(the developing JNSAR for tomorrow)& 5272-(10Dma) the 2nd target.

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Nifty indecisive with an Inside day..

'Inside Day'
A candlestick formation that occurs when the entire daily price range for a given security falls within the price range of the previous day. Inside day often refers to all versions of the harami pattern and can be very useful for spotting changes in the direction of a trend.
Investopedia explains 'Inside Day'
An inside day is often used to signal indecision because neither the bulls nor the bears are able to send the price beyond the range of the previous day. If an inside day is found at the end of a prolonged downtrend and is located near a level of support, it can be used to signal a bullish shift in trend. Conversely, an inside day found near the end of a prolonged uptrend may suggest that the rally is getting exhausted and is likely to reverse.
Using HEma & LEma for Trading from Tech.Table(TT):
In the TT, there are four guidelines given for using HEma & LEma in trading:-
When prices move above Low Ema & Closes: Buy on dips to High ema+
When prices move above High Ema & Closes: Buy & Hold as upward momentum picks up.
When Prices move below High Ema & Closes: Sell on rises to Close Ema/ Low Ema-
When Prices move below Low Ema & Closes: Sell & Hold as downward momentum picks up.

Trend indicator in TT is 5DEma. One could opt for JNSAR too.

While the market is comfortably above 5DEma/JNSAR, the close below HEma suggests weakening of upward momentum which means short term traders would move into sell on rises...investors have taken a pause as well as do part booking.
Subsequently, if market survives the LEma, it would attempt to move higher. In a strongly trending market, such as the current one, market is coming only upto 5DEma so far. And after a two days of sideways move, it has closed above DHEma & poised to take another move higher. In normal conditions, the close below HEma generally takes the market towards LEma-20pts.
Markets have occasionally closed above HEma but has gapped down next day. Most TA studies suggest overbought conditions but the corrections have been of “intraday” nature so far.

While the market is comfortably below 5DEma/JNSAR, the close above LEma suggests weakening of downward momentum which means short term traders would move into buy into dips...investors return to re-enter into their fallen favourites.
Subsequently, if market is unable to close above HEma, it would attempt to move lower again and the downward momentum returns once it closes below LEma.
Knowing the market strength/ weakness with the help of prices’ positioning in the Tech.table of different Time frame, one could choose good trade set ups and initiate trades at appropriate levels. The levels are arrived at using Pivot table and Tech.table and other considerations such as Fibonacci table, Elliott wave study, etc.

While reading the TT during uptrend, it is very important to know that as long as the Week TA is in upmode(green), the down (red) that appears in day TA will not give sharp falls except at the point of major reversal. Similarly as long as the Day TA is in upmode(green), the down (red) that appears in Hour TA will not give sharp falls except at the point of major reversal. And during downtrend, read the same appropriately by respecting the higher T/F TA.
TT-Tech.table; T/F- Time frame; TA-Technicals.

Nifty Intraday Update-III




Nifty Intraday Update-II



Nifty Intraday Update-I



Nifty PreMarket View

"Trading" is a very personal journey and you have to travel that alone, though you may have many companions and guides along the way. Trading evokes in you many emotions unknown to you till then. Trading evoke emotions depending on your state of mind. Hence, there is always a difference in perceptions of many traders which is what makes it challenging to the learner and rewarding to the learned.
It is the same with religion and reaching out to God. You may be surrounded by many, participating in the Bhajans but your own life's trials get you closer to the GOD.
Let yourself be exposed to the market more & more...let its harshness temper you..prepare you for that lonely but enriching journey.
Let nothing along the way distracts you...be it the loose talkers or your own excitement/ despair that is borne out of success & failure.
Remember, everyday market evolves..it has something new to show to you. SO keep your opinions on hold...Listen to it. And as you get clarity, move in and as it gets unclear, stay out.
Yes..Smita.. that pony tailed hanging man/ woman is an instance of this evolving market.
Testing times bring out the best in you..reaffirming your faith.

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Nifty continues to display many reversal patterns in the day T/F.

I am raised as a Hindu and when people talk to me about religion, I show them my religion's potential, its rich heritage. My closest friends are from Islam, Christianity, Sikhism, Jainism & Buddhism. I respect their religions and they respect mine. No religion has shown God in person. No one has seen God and proved it to the world. It is one's belief...faith that holds their life together...keeps them centered in joy & sorrows...in trials and tribulations.
I feel God in everything I do and I strongly believe in all the Gods of Hindu religion. To some, they may be Just Stones but to me & to many, they are real and I never felt the urge to prove it to anyone. So what if someone questions the presence of my God.
In this House, JNSAR is God. Many follow it like it is their own religion. Any problems?
Why do you come to the market? For entertainment..? or to make money..?
Haven't you seen Businessmen touching their work place, praying before starting their business. It is the one that gives them their bread & butter. One who worships his work makes it his God, his religion.
Even if you beg, cry & complain, market will not give you a dime. But if you follow JNSAR (a good guide to follow the market), it will make you richer.
Just as I revere being a Hindu, I know my Islam friends, Christian friends, Sikh friends, Jain friends and Buddhism friends are a revered lot. I respect each one of them for what they are and accept them whole heartedly. And I never considered to convert them to my religion.

Follow whatever you believe in..-5Sma, J10SAR, Trendline, Macd, EW, 5-20sma combo..Be truthful, sincere to it. Let your words not belittle anyone/ any system... What is the big hullabulla about JNSAR not giving target/ Stoploss, etc.. and hence it is not a trading system. Fine. I'll have the money rather than that perfect system. I don't want to know the target as long as the money keeps flowing in. I don't want a stop loss as long as I'm in a trade that gives me money.

JNSAR is GOD here. It may be just another number for you. Not to us. Any problems. Should I apologise for making it a GOD. OR should you apologise for hurting everyone's sentiments.

Bearish belt hold is a trend-reversal candlestick pattern indicating the beginning of a new downtrend after a significant uptrend (Day Time frame only). It is a single candlestick pattern formed of a long red bearish candlestick, which is an opening marubozo (have no upper shadow). Bearish belt hold candlestick occurs frequently and is considered less reliable and thus confirmation of trend change is necessary.
The requirements of bearish belt hold candlestick are:
  • The candlestick should form after a significant uptrend.
  • The price should open above a significant gap and the opening price should be the highest price of the day.
  • The day should be noticeable with high bearish activity and the price should close at or near the lowest price of the day.
Bearish belt hold candlestick appears when bulls fail to keep the upward trend (often above a significant resistance). Many traders begin to sell-off their positions and this mark the beginning of a new downtrend.

The confirmation of trend-reversal can be a bearish candlestick, a lower gap opening or a lower close on the next trading day. Traders are also used to use other tools and indicators confirm price trends and to enter and exit trades. 1. JustNifty TA(08th Feb)

Nifty Intraday Update-III



Nifty Intraday Update-I



Nifty PreMarket View

From 5200, the support base has been shifted to 5300 with OI reflecting the same.
As long as the higher T/F TA is uptrending, the Hour weakness will produce 50-100 points of corrections only.
Watching the prices trending up in a channel provides trading opportunities from channel bottom to the top and at times from channel top to bottom. At times, the prices tend to remain closer to the channel top and complete the time correction. Presently, there is a smaller channel working its way up within the larger channel.

Monday, February 6, 2012

Nifty, uptrending, trading @ the top end of the upward channel.

1. JustNifty TA(07th Feb)

Nifty Intraday Update-III



Nifty Intraday Update-II



Nifty Intraday Update-I



Nifty PreMarket View

Day.R1 @ 5385 & 61.8% of 5944-4532 @ 5405- Another round of Profit booking.
Day Pivot @ 5305 & DHEma is likely to be around 5305+-A close below these would weaken the upward momentum.
EW/TA reversal confirmation below 5250.
Tata steel in its last leg of an "ending diagonal towards 492 or 502".
After a near 450 points rise since 4957-Mth reversal, intra month consolidation may be on & then to go back towards the highs at month end.