Thursday, December 13, 2012

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Nifty started to trend up when it closed above 5607(5DEma) on 21 st Nov.
It gained upward momentum when it closed above 5673(DHEma) on 27th Nov.
It gained 300 points since then.
At some point, weakness/ exhaustion should set in.
And it did when Nifty closed below 5912(DHEma) on 07th Dec. This is a new signal which is termed as "Sell on rises" during which period Nifty is expected trade between DHEma+20-30pts to DLEma-20-30 pts. Being in a trading mode, Nifty got sold off above DHEma in the subsequent 3 days so far and it has found support @ DLEma on two days out of the 3 days.
Bears get aggressive when they sense the bulls exhaustion which gets confirmed with a close below DHEma.
For a trader, such a signal should never be ignored but should be utilised to capitalise on.
This action could also termed as "falling by its own weight".
At some point, this falling would stop when we spot either divergences/ close above 34 Hr sma/ closing above DLEma after being closed below it or moved below it.
This scenario would play out with DLEma in a downtrend too when the downside momentum gets exhausted.
Remember, this is not a rule but a guideline based on such a tendency of prices on innumerable instances.
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Nifty has reached a crucial point of 80% 5877 of its last rise of 5865 to 5925 & closing above JNSAR.
As we discussed yesterday,
Ilango said...
@ Smita,
My simple understanding was:
If bullish, the fall from 5965 to 5865 was "c of 4" and 5 should start to unfold.
It started from 5865 in an impulsive fashion in "i" but got fizzled out in "iii".
Hence, ST bullish view negated. Being confirmed as a corrective bounce, 5865 to 5925 could be "a" and a frustrating "b" wave is on, to be followed by "c" which means a high past 5925 is possible in this corrective upmove provided 5892 is held (In an irregular flat, even a new low is possible before making a new day's high).
Nifty's price action around 5927-45 zone would reveal whether the correction resumes after a brief rise or not.
If sold @ 80% 5899(rise from 5893 to 5925), keep a SL @ 5935.

46 comments:

salimkabani said...

Good morning sir and blogmates.

Bala said...

Good Morning, Ilango Ji.

"Sincere Thanks" for the wonderful explanation.

NEVER GIVE UP said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir & All Friends.

San said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir and Friends

SBI Chart analysis: CLICK HERE

madamuniramaiah said...

GOOD MORNING TO ALL " JN FAMILY MEMBERS"
PLEASE READ MY REQUEST AND PRAPOSAL IF YOU FEEL GOOD.
AS LIKE IN USA WHY DONOT GIVE A THANKS GIVING DAY FOR OUR MASTER ILANGO SIR?.
SO THINK AND FEEL IT MAY BE NEW YEARS DAY IS VERY GOOD FOR THANKGIVING DAY.
I THINK WE ARE TAKING MUCH SERVICESSES FOR MASTER ILANGO SIR,IT IS GOOD ON OUR PART ATLEAST THANK HIM ONCE IN A YEAR.I AM PRAPOSING IT AS A STUDENT.
IF IAM WRONG, I AM SORRY.
HOPING EVERY ONE WILL OBLIGE.
THANKS.

Bala said...

@ madamuniramaiah

I second your proposal by all means.

Please proceed.

sudharsan said...

Good Morning Master and Friends

madamuniramaiah said...

@BALA SIR.
Iam an ordenary student of SIR ILANGO,i fell happy if elders take this good work to their sholders.
thaks and regards.

saravanan k said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir & all blogmates.

Rgds
Saravanan

krishna said...

Madamuniramaiah,

Good idea and idle date for that is Jan 4th (Sirs birthday) if iam correct.

Prabha Gopalkrishna said...

@Madamuniramaiah..
Absolutely agree with you...
Good Morning Master...Thank you for guiding us..

Nilesh Patil said...

Good Morning Master & Friends

sushil said...

good morning master and blogmates

SANPOT said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir and blogmates.

Kumar said...

Namaskaaram GuruJi and Friends,

Good Morning.

Have a Good Day.

Pranams
Kumar

sara said...

Sir,
Please change the date from 21st Dec to 21st Nov in (Nifty started to trend up when it closed above 5607(5DEma) on 21 st Dec.)

Ravi Pillai said...

SIR
Good Morning.
@Madamuniramaiah..
Absolutely agree with you...
Please get Masters approval and arrange at the earliest.
We are waiting
Ravi

Parminder said...

Master ilango and friends,
good morning to all
regards

Prabakar said...

Namaste Ilango Sir and JN Family

cooldent said...

madamuniramaiah

Give what you are getting from sir with the same ideology of not expecting anything in return. I think that will be the best thanksgiving sir can get.

SK Mishra said...

Good morning all! Nice to see proposal of Thanksgiving day. Welcome!
Remind all that in our Indian culture, once we accept somebody as Guru, we start the day with 'Guru Brahma, Guru Vishnu...., Tamsmei Shree Gurabe Namah!' Let us in addition to the proposal above, mentally affirm the above also. A lot of confusion goes away with the affirmation. And then you mingle and become One. (PS: bhasan jyada ho gaya.)

Parminder said...

Hi
Krishna and Madamuniramaiah..
ialso support ur proposal bt all days are good if we remember our TEACHER by HEART.
Masters Birthday is on 5th Jan
regards

Bhushan said...

Good Morning Gurudev and Friends

Parimal said...

Namaste Dear Master and all friends
have a nice day of trading

Hari said...

Good morning master & JN family

Have a nice day !

HARISH TAHKKAR said...

Eecellent concept explin in most simple words
Excellent Day to understand for new comers.
One does not need anything more than these for
making money in screen based trading for what so
ever.Make screen shot for your PC.

venkatapathy l said...

Namaste Ilango Sir and fellow bloggers

LV

Hitendra said...

Looks like , Fed to the rescue of indian market

Suraj said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir and All Seniors & Friends

deepak pinto said...

Sir
past few days price action is not discernable as per NW. it started of looking like a expanded flat on the daily, morphed into a expanding triangle look and then became vague.
one observation though remains
The trend is still up
and the 5 of 5 of the big C or 3rd from 4770 still has not played out because the retracement of the assumed last 5 must be swiftly breaking the 2-4 tl faster than the time taken by the 5th wave to form.
so until then
staying long, trading long or staying out in wait for reversal ,look reasonable strategies

Ilango said...

"5898-5901" are 5DEma/5DSma - Trading below these would be sign of weakness.

Stockathon said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir & Friends...

yogesh bhai said...

gud mor sir and my friends

Smita said...

GoodMorning Sir and JN Family !

Prithvi Yashashvi said...

21hour sma Cross 34 hour sma in hourly chart
Now short confirm after close at 10 a.m.

Ilango said...

"5890" is the 61.8% of last rise from 5879 to 5907.

80% @ 5885.

ALBELA HOUSE said...

R/Ilango Sir Namaste n Namaskaar 2 all reader's.

Dinesh Rishi said...

Good Morning Master and copy to All

jay shah said...

gm wonderful sir , seniors and freinds

amber said...

Sir ILango ji and every one good morning

Sai Bhakt said...

good decrease in NF premium with comparatively low volume

AJIT PATIL said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir & all blogmates.

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