Saturday, November 26, 2011
Remembering a true Martyr on 26/11.
when thousands of jellyfish washed ashore by the Arabian Sea stung visitors on Girgaum Chowpatty, a constable on duty worked tirelessly to keep people off the beach. When few heeded his warning, he went home and read up on the creature. The next day, he went to the beach with a bagful of lemons, bought with his own money, and administered lime juice on every sting injury as he had read it would provide relief.
This incident was probably a glimpse of the rare quality that led the same man, assistant SI Tukaram Omble, to pounce on a gun-toting terrorist in the wee hours of November 27, and pin him down bare-handed, in spite of five bullets lodged in his body. Going beyond the defined call of duty was characteristic of 54-year-old Omble, attached to DB Marg police station, whose heroic effort helped police nab one of the 26/11 attackers, Lashkar operative Mohammed Ajmal Amir Qasab, alive near Girgaum Chowpatty.
Friday, November 25, 2011
Nifty seem to be pausing for more downsides...(4665-80%)
Till a weekly confirmation comes, the bounces will be short lived. Week is yet to reach oversold zone. If Monday, market moves higher, that would give a good selling opportunity. A fifth wave down would provide a short term buying opportunity. This is the present observation. "iv"th waves are tricky in a fast falling market.
Nifty PreMarket View
Nifty has nearly completed a "zigzag"(3 waves) from 4639 lows yesterday.
If it is a sub-wave, it will continue to make new lows, if not today, on Monday.
If it has commenced the 4th wave or a corrective "b" wave, it'll still correct part of yesterday's rise and then move higher.
As long as it holds above 80%(4665), more upsides possible. If it makes more highs in the first session, recalculate the 80% retrace.
Weekly trend remains down and so do Month.
Daily is yet to close above 5-ema for a trend reversal.
DLEma less 20 points come to 4718.(depends on today's low ema..??!!)Its the day pivot.
If it is a sub-wave, it will continue to make new lows, if not today, on Monday.
If it has commenced the 4th wave or a corrective "b" wave, it'll still correct part of yesterday's rise and then move higher.
As long as it holds above 80%(4665), more upsides possible. If it makes more highs in the first session, recalculate the 80% retrace.
Weekly trend remains down and so do Month.
Daily is yet to close above 5-ema for a trend reversal.
DLEma less 20 points come to 4718.(depends on today's low ema..??!!)Its the day pivot.
Thursday, November 24, 2011
Nifty Pre-Market View.
"Fearing a counter trend move, we let go off the current trending move".
You will not find a simpler tool to capture the trending as well as the sideways moves like the Tech.Table - It captures the strength & weakness of the price and price alone.
Make an effort to feel the "strength & weakness" of the market through the changing colours in TT and of various time frames'and simply "stay with it" as one day it will reward you big, the biggest trade of the year.
Someone asked me whether anyone has seen a dumb trader. I have seen a few. They look so dumb in front of the experts but end up making many times the experts. They are the doers...doing things slowly...knowing the great potential of the experts and they have come to believe in something simple and they remain simple. They talk very less...concentrating only on those "action times"...and "acting".
So look out for those action times...and act.
Thank you Dinesh Rishi, Bramesh & SAN - I simply opened another mail a/c...blog...and copying the htmls here.
You will not find a simpler tool to capture the trending as well as the sideways moves like the Tech.Table - It captures the strength & weakness of the price and price alone.
Make an effort to feel the "strength & weakness" of the market through the changing colours in TT and of various time frames'and simply "stay with it" as one day it will reward you big, the biggest trade of the year.
Someone asked me whether anyone has seen a dumb trader. I have seen a few. They look so dumb in front of the experts but end up making many times the experts. They are the doers...doing things slowly...knowing the great potential of the experts and they have come to believe in something simple and they remain simple. They talk very less...concentrating only on those "action times"...and "acting".
So look out for those action times...and act.
Thank you Dinesh Rishi, Bramesh & SAN - I simply opened another mail a/c...blog...and copying the htmls here.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Nifty reached the earlier cluster point around 4600.
1. JustNifty TA(24th Nov)
Why traders get emotional and not able to follow through their plans?
The answer is quite simple.
When you make your trading plan, you use your brain.
When you start to execute the plan, implement your strategy, leave out the "thinking"...leave out your "ego".... Just do it.
Using your brain unnecessarily, you end up a loser...and you have also seen many messing up their trades despite knowing fully well what should be done.
Now try this: Without using your brain, simply execute the trades. Wait... wait..not just yet.. Wait for those "good trade set ups" to emerge and then start.
With this knowledge that trades are messed up when we start having "opinions" of what the market will do....and this fear holds you back from doing the right thing.
So the steps you must take include:
1. Plan a trade with one or two contingency plans.
2. Key in your order to buy or sell.
3. When the order is executed, key in the "Exit price" along with your SL.
4. Do not change it unless one of your contingency scenario start to play out.
5. For simplicity, you can do away with contingency plans.
How do I plan my trade...?
Take the JNSAR number and plan your trade with it. It can't get simpler than this.I have shown it in the pre-market table. Can you get dumber...dumber...and then see all those riches.. Stop the chatter..start hearing those money jingles.
If you are not holding your "Shorts" created @ 5275NF, wait for the next signal or next re-sell opportunity.
Click on the chart to get a clear view.
Nifty PreMarket View
Staying below 4815 and breaking 4785 will lead Nifty to New lows. We have a fast fall in progress too.
Only a move above 21Hr Sma(Updated every hour on the chart) would indicate some strength to take it to 34Hr Sma/ 5DEma.
As has been repeated earlier, settlement woes would continue to drag the index down with bouts of short covering/ roll over. As bears are in profit, they are not in a hurry to cover them. And as bulls are in loss, they will come to close their positions at every rise, hence the unsustainability of bounces.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Nifty, if holds above 4780, could be pausing.
The minor waves leave two possible scenarios, one in the 14-hr chart and the other in the "Nifty intraday update-III" post.
For traders, it'll offer some quick changing sideways moves.
Decisive move may be seen beyond 4780 & 4850 but not a lasting one. The reason being above 4850, there will be resistances from 4890 to 4920 and breaking 4780, it may be making the settlement lows.
Nifty PreMarket View
Dinesh Rishi trades mostly "Long trades" only. He clearly puts forth his reasons for doing so and most importantly he does not encourage anyone to hold overnight longs when market is trading firmly below JNSAR.
Traders play both longs and shorts during the day. Once a downtrend is established, especially based on month/ week downtrend, one should look out for intra rises to sell into as the falls produce larger profits till one trade gets stopped out. There are also situations wherein markets gap down and for most part of the day trade sideways or climb gently higher during which time, small long trades are done but with a clear SL, rising the SL and profit booking at resistance points(derived from earlier supports).
For an intraday bounce for the day, Nifty should start to trade above 4805 initially and should breach yesterday's morning low of 4848. Only then, a reasonable bounce is possible. 4911-40 has been strong support base earlier as well as a gap @ 4916-4919 which would be a strong resistance.
Based on EW, if Nifty does a minor bounce upto 4805+ and makes another low, that would be a completion of minor "iii"rd (Red) to commence a "iv"th wave bounce. As long as "4848"(sub.minor."i"st) is not breached, a new low below 4765 remains.
Traders play both longs and shorts during the day. Once a downtrend is established, especially based on month/ week downtrend, one should look out for intra rises to sell into as the falls produce larger profits till one trade gets stopped out. There are also situations wherein markets gap down and for most part of the day trade sideways or climb gently higher during which time, small long trades are done but with a clear SL, rising the SL and profit booking at resistance points(derived from earlier supports).
For an intraday bounce for the day, Nifty should start to trade above 4805 initially and should breach yesterday's morning low of 4848. Only then, a reasonable bounce is possible. 4911-40 has been strong support base earlier as well as a gap @ 4916-4919 which would be a strong resistance.
Based on EW, if Nifty does a minor bounce upto 4805+ and makes another low, that would be a completion of minor "iii"rd (Red) to commence a "iv"th wave bounce. As long as "4848"(sub.minor."i"st) is not breached, a new low below 4765 remains.
Monday, November 21, 2011
Nifty continues to consolidate & breaks down in a simple channel.
Whenever Month/ week technicals turn down, the falls are steep, sustained in a way it makes the trader loose his/ her patience, anticipate bottom forming.
If you look at the hour charts, you could see many "consolidating patterns" such a flags, pennants, triangles, etc., only to be broken downwards.
A day's price move is shown as one single bar or candle in the day chart but it consists of 7 Hour bars or candles and 25 15-minute bars or candles. To develop patience in such strongly trending markets, one should view the 15-min chart with an Hour chart in the background and Hour chart with day chart in the background. Markets spend a lot of time trading sideways during the day(consolidations), only to resume the downtrend when it finds itself not being supported by buyers but being overwhelmed by sellers.
Always ask yourself this question - are you having an opinion against a trending market which is where the biggest losses are incurred and biggest opportunities are missed.
Waves are sub-dividing. That is a typical trending market's characteristic.
If you look at the hour charts, you could see many "consolidating patterns" such a flags, pennants, triangles, etc., only to be broken downwards.
A day's price move is shown as one single bar or candle in the day chart but it consists of 7 Hour bars or candles and 25 15-minute bars or candles. To develop patience in such strongly trending markets, one should view the 15-min chart with an Hour chart in the background and Hour chart with day chart in the background. Markets spend a lot of time trading sideways during the day(consolidations), only to resume the downtrend when it finds itself not being supported by buyers but being overwhelmed by sellers.
Always ask yourself this question - are you having an opinion against a trending market which is where the biggest losses are incurred and biggest opportunities are missed.
Waves are sub-dividing. That is a typical trending market's characteristic.
Nifty PreMarket View
Dear Manu Mahajan,
Happy Birthday to you.
= = = = = == = = = = = =
Nifty has been having bounces of 75 to 90 points during this downtrend from 5317.
Accordingly, Friday too, it witnessed a bounce from the low of 4838 of 78 points to 4916 and set to move down.
"4854" is 80% retrace of 4838 to 4916; 4868 is 61.8%. So watch these levels as "post such consolidations", the falls have been substantial. Whenever such a pattern fails, impulse moves stops and a consolidation/ sustainable bounce emerges only to be followed by another phase of downtrend until higher T/F weakening forces are "spent".
Attempt to achieve "Jaya" instead of "Vijaya".(The former is a victory over self and the latter is over another).
Happy Birthday to you.
= = = = = == = = = = = =
Nifty has been having bounces of 75 to 90 points during this downtrend from 5317.
Accordingly, Friday too, it witnessed a bounce from the low of 4838 of 78 points to 4916 and set to move down.
"4854" is 80% retrace of 4838 to 4916; 4868 is 61.8%. So watch these levels as "post such consolidations", the falls have been substantial. Whenever such a pattern fails, impulse moves stops and a consolidation/ sustainable bounce emerges only to be followed by another phase of downtrend until higher T/F weakening forces are "spent".
Attempt to achieve "Jaya" instead of "Vijaya".(The former is a victory over self and the latter is over another).
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