Every time I expect to do it right

Pete Rose, the famous baseball player, taught me something so valuable that it changed my life. Pete was being interviewed in spring training the year he was about to break Ty Cobb's all time hits record.

One reporter blurted out, "Pete, you only need 78 hits to break the record. How many at-bats do you think you'll need to get the 78 hits?"

Without hesitation, Pete just stared at the reporter and very matter-of-factly said, "78."

The reporter yelled back, "Ah, come on Pete, you don't expect to get 78 hits in 78 at-bats do you?"

Nifty, having done a perfect pause last week, resumed its down trend this week.

Haven't seen any bottoming patterns yet.
No strength is reflected in the Tech table but weakness only.
200 WSma @ 4842 has given it a pause in the dying moments.
IT Index & Bank Nifty has impulsed down and Nifty constituents could join them.
That is all the honest observations.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Remember: These are intraday bounces as long as 4840 holds. Watch the "Red channel"(Smaller one) shown for this current down move from 5195. It continues down with brief intraday bounces.
Also Look out for signals from Tech table by way of close above Low emas.
Until then, keep selling on rises.
Any Longs should have strict SL.

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

If it is the (v)th wave, it should end around 4700-50 and show signs of reversal patterns by Monday or Tuesday. If not, the downtrend is likely to intensify considering the larger time frames' Technicals. Such a larger trend reversal always has in its 1st agenda to break the last major low which is "4786" to assert its downtrend and then look for other lows.

Presently, 5015 is the trigger for a reversal.

BN has bid adieu to 10000; Has Nifty too to 5000..?


Go Back to Week & Month Chart to recollect the Larger picture to understand the "Micro movements within that context" - Click Below to View.

Nifty has confirmed its "v"th wave down today and will remain so till it continues below 5015.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

A fall below 5015 would confirm the (v)th of iii rd wave which could bottom out around 4900 either today or tomorrow. At this stage a two-day-High break would confirm ST reversal.Buying closer to 4900 whenever the form(i,ii,iii,iv,v) is completed along with some bottoming indications from Hour & Day would be an aggressive strategy. The only danger to such a strategy would be waves sub dividing & the weekly TA deciding to stay in Oversold levels longer as the Hour & Day did.
Remember Long trades should have very tight SL, say 15-25 points only while the larger trend remains DOWN.
A minor channel in the hour chart has 5090 as its resistance coinciding with 5DEma.

Nifty continues in "Sell on Rise" mode but yet to break below 5010 for new lows.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

How Jan Lokpal Bill could curb the corrupt.

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

For all those who lose their sleep over world markets, yesterday's price action should comfort them that despite two strong up days in world markets, our market gapped up, only to go one way down, true to its trend. Once our market gets exhausted with down move, no world market could stop its rise.OR Our market would then use such weakness to "gap down to rise".
"5000-5010" break will lead to the final short term move down towards 4900(+/-) which is another area to part book.
Week's Pivot @ 5075(+/-) would be an important pivotal number turned resistance presently above which the 21 Hour sma will act as the trigger for ST strength.

Nifty, true to its trend, made use of +ve global cues to "sell off".

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

Staying above weekly pivot of 5075, Nifty is likely to test W.R1-5203(JNSAR) & W.R2-5332(Gap area, the likely "iv"th wave end.

Happy Independence Day

Dear Shammi, Mere Yaar Shabba Khair...

No study is complete without application.

Dinesh Rishi gave some Home work and I give you back some to "do with few large cap stocks" to test your abilities: No study is complete without application. All studies are wonderful as long as you remain objective and the results would be amazing & humbling to you.

When you study Elliott waves in the application of trading/ investing, have the Buddhist principle of "Balance" in mind & follow them. Apply them to daily/ weekly charts more and less to hour charts. When it is not clear/ obvious, do not force a label.
Believe me, it is the easiest of all, mostly misunderstood and the major failure by its practitioners is due to "not believing what they see in the first place and thereby complicating it".
An Invitation to enter the world of Elliott waves - Part-1
Introduction to Elliott & his Wave Theory - Part-2
Elliott wave Principle-Rules & Guidelines - Part-3
Elliott wave Corrections - Part-4

Dinesh's Home work to me was to show EW labels as shown below to "Nifty". The following chart shows you How one set of "5 impulsive waves+abc correction" has in it sub waves of "5 impulsive waves+abc correction".
Accordingly, Nifty is in its Major 5th wave having completed its 4th wave in the week of 25.10.2002 and has now completed the sub wave 1 and in its corrective phase of "abc" from 2008. And the same is market in a small yellow circle in the above chart to understand the "Positioning of the market" in the current scenario. Where that "c"(of the (2)nd wave) will end and when the next sub waves 1 & 2 will unfold: A most likely pre-election.

An alternative scenario would be: The (2)nd wave completed at 2253 and the sub wave 1 comleted at 6339 and sub wave 2 is on.

Some of the sub waves would be more clear in "Day Charts".

Use of Log scale charts help in identifying the correct "Trending channels" when it comes to week/ month charts(Larger Time frame) as shown below.