Just Nifty: 2011-07-17

Saturday, July 23, 2011

Rainbows look different to each....

I was talking with a friend a few days ago, who is pregnant with her first child. We were talking about parenting - how our parents raised us, what we would do differently with our children, what we would keep the same. She was a little apprehensive, a little anxious about being a parent, about being responsible for a child and his or her life.

I remember saying to her, that regardless of how perfectly she may try to raise her child, the child will be messed up anyway simply by his or her own interpretation and association of everything that happens in his or her life.

Haven't we all - at some point in our lives - made conclusions and generalisations about something based on one incident alone, and believed that to be true for all cases?

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Nifty's correction intensifies with volatility increasing as the most crucial "control" is at stake now.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Resisted @ WHEma & not able to close above DHEma.. Momentum is still missing except in Hour TA..

Gartley pattern application By Satheesh.

Combining the DAY Harmonic patterns and the Hour Patterns:

Bullish Crab Pattern:

In the above chart - the Bullish Crab Pattern with XA 5944-5328, the possible targets the pattern could provide are:

I min tgt = 5689 -61.8% retr of CD –

This is below the Point B of the Bearish pattern with XA=5912-5195

So the second target is 76.4% retr of CD = 5775.

Bearish Butterfly pattern:

The bearish butterfly pattern starts with XA = 5912 – 5197.

XA = 5912-5197

B = 5740 = 76.4% retr of XA

Possibility 1. C = 5551 (as of now)

Considering the Fact that D finishes above B and not below the Point B, the min target would be 5740 = 100% retr. This almost coincides with the 200 DMA.

Normally as per the Gartley Pattern, D finishes 127% of BC = 5805. This coincides with the Month High EMA.

Possibility 2: Unless NS surpasses B at 5740 to make a D there is always a possibility of NS making a lower C at 5514-10 = 88.6% retr of AB.

To ascertain the value of C (day) the Bearish Gartley formed in Hour TF would be useful:

IN the pattern shown below the AB of the Day pattern at 5740-5497 will be the XA of the Hour Pattern.

In the above Hour TF bearish Gartley Pattern,

XA = 5740 – 5497 = 243 pts.

B = 5653 = 61.8% retr (5647)

(current )C = 5551 = 61.8% retr of AB (5556.5)

Possibility 1. With C = 5551, then possible targets for D = min 100% retr = 5653

Next target is 127% retr = 5680.

Next target is 224% = 5780.

Now going back to the Day TF, the Min Target for D must be greater than 5740. So NS may find resistance at 5680 ( 40 WK SMA) levels, and as per the bearish pattern in Hour TF, would again get back to current low of 5551 or lower and then start a journey upward to complete a target of above 5740 – 5805.

Possibility 2: Next target is 224% = 5780 NS not getting resisted at 5680 but continue its journey up after a small pause or just retracing back upto 5630-40 and reaching the target of 5780 – 5800++.

The target of 5780-5805 coincides with,

Month High EMA at 5802
Day TF’s Bullish Crab Pattern’s target of 76.4% retr = 5775-80
Completion of Day Bearish Butterfly pattern by reaching a point D above B and also 127% retr of XA = 5805.

This possible short term target of 5900+ was also mentioned earlier in JN blog, as-“ with 5450 holding NS might reach 5800++

This is the chart shown in the1 july 2011 EOD post of JN.

LINK : http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8YAL6Q261uk/Tg20tSAVSHI/AAAAAAAAVck/AOl2814lFbQ/s1600/0.0.PNG

Considering EW Possibilities ,

The Wave A ended at 5177

The B wave is divided as ABC at 5944, 5197 and the new High likely to be formed at 5800+ or 5900+.Then the C wave down starts.

Made an attempt to fit all parameters in the analysis. Market is supreme. Must trade with appropriate SL always and keep part booking at the possible support and resistance levels.