Compassionate connection through the wire.

When I was quite young, my father had one of the first telephones in our neighborhood. I remember the polished, old case fastened to the wall. The shiny receiver hung on the side of the box. I was too little to reach the telephone, but used to listen with fascination when my mother talked to it.

Then I discovered that somewhere inside the wonderful device lived an amazing person. Her name was "Information Please" and there was nothing she did not know. Information Please could supply anyone's number and the correct time.

My personal experience with the genie-in-a-bottle came one day while my mother was visiting a neighbor. Amusing myself at the tool bench in the basement, I whacked my finger with a hammer, the pain was terrible, but there seemed no point in crying because there was no one home to give sympathy.

Nifty "pauses" in its weekly downtrend with a close above 5445.

Let us not strain to look for wave labels, especially in the short term. Remember to combine technical studies to add weightage to your observations. Feel the pulse of the market with the force with which prices rise or fall. The best place to gauge Bull-Bear's strength is during corrective phase. The undercurrent is known during such phases.Elliott, himself, would exclud3e certain topping and basing waves out of his counts as whipsaws would cloud one's assessment of waves.
While reading through the comments, beaware of the "Calls" being given out by other readers - know in advance the time to wait for the targets, stop losses (whether you are willing to risk this much money on a trade), the weightage of the observations as reflected by the prices and above all "Know your Time frame of trade - Hour/ Day or weeks and whether you are willing to have a SL as per such a T/F". Why this alert..? Though the reader may give away the calls, they may not be around to monitor it for you or urge you to book profits or exit. You have to do it confidently. Markets have a way of "freezing" even the professionals with its sudden changes. You simply trade your plans.
It is darkest before dawn and it is very bearish before a reversal. The bearishness witnessed wasn't so severe like a med. term bearishness but like a short term bearishness. Accordingly expect the reversal too to last in that much intensity & time until proved otherwise.
Tech table shows you what trend is currently on. Presently, the day trend is up with momentum but the weekly downtrend has only paused. Bulls would attempt a close above 5555 and accordingly an attempt towards 5555 is likely. A close below Day High ema will put the market back into a sideways mode.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

This expected rally may either be retracing the fall from 5944 or 5605 provided 5300-5330 is held. Accordingly the time & price retracements will vary. Refer retracement table below. Why this sudden change.? Slowing down in prices & time compels us to look at other possibilities. A close above 5445(WLEma) will confirm an arrest to the fall in the short term.

Nifty, having closed above DLEma, will set its eyes on WLEma.

If it is ending diagonal, it should face resistances around 5435-5445 and fall towards 5350 or lower to complete it. If it moves past the channel firmly, it could be part of a running corrective which could take it higher.
Identifying correctives as they are developing is a difficult task. Have an alternative plan in hand as it happened today when Nifty was falling from 5406.5, It was expected to have ended a zigzag(abc) @ 5375.15 but it had a surprise to eliminate the early entrants with an "abcde" but going to the anticpated support zone of 5360-5370 and moved up sharply.
At such junctures, trade with support/ resistances.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

The intensity is lacking in the "iii" of 3rd. Till a decisive break of 5300 does not take place, a possible short term corrective rally once the ending diagonal completes in a day or two. 5290 to 5415 is the extremes to trigger the bear-bull scenarios.

Nifty getting closer to the decisive 5300.

As "Vanquish" suggested, we have explored the "ending diagonal" option. The choppy "settlement day" would befit such a possibility. Also note "5300"(+/-) happens to be a decisive point from various studies, trendlines. All said and done, the trend remains down with "failing +ve div" in hour TA. One could only part book, trade the 5300-5400 zone & hold below 5300.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

The most obvious looking deep fall, at times, could elude with a complex irregular "ii" wave within the 3rd wave as long as such a bounce is limited to 5430-50.
Till a change in trend is not confirmed, stay with your positions part booking as suggested.

Nifty has done a "Pause Day"..adjusting to the oversold short term.

The above chart shows two ideal scenarios. It could vary a bit in real markets. If moves past 5460, the whole corrective set up changes.

< 5370 - 5410> would be the early indications of Bear/ Bull openings. Remember only closing prices alter the technical set ups. Aggressive trader would follow the Hour Closes with due considerations to Day/ week TA and conservative trader should follow Day Closes with more weightage to Week/ Month TA.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

FIRE's ANALYSIS: This Ratio Analysis is totally based on two EW counts of Master. The common thing for both the counts are -

A = 6338 – 5178 = 1160 Points

B = 5944 – 5178 = 766 Points

So, "C" can be either

1160*61.8% = 717 Points (Ends at 5944 – 717 = 5227)

1160*100% = 1160 Points (Ends at 5944 - 1160 = 4784)

Now, C always subdivides in 5 waves, never in 3. So let’s look at the subdivisions. Master has charted three possibilities, but I will discuss only two here as I am absolutely not fit for discussing any X wave.

So let’s start from the less bleak picture for the bulls, the first count -

1.C = 5944 – 5444 = 500 points

2.C = 5605 – 5444 = 161 points

So the possible 3.C –

(For 1.C) -

100% = 500 points (5605 – 500 = 5105)

161.8% = 809 points (5605 – 809 = 4796)

200% = 1000 points (5605 – 1000 = 4605)

261.8% = 1309 points (5605 – 1309 = 4296)

For (2.C) –

261.8% = 421 points (5605 – 421 = 5184)

Now if we take further subdivisions –

(1).3.C = 5605 – 5401 = 204 points

(2).3.C = 5518 – 5401 = 117 points

So, (3).3.C = 100% = 204 points (5518 – 204 = 5314)

161.8% = 330 points (5518 – 330 = 5188)

200% = 408 points (5518 – 408 = 5110)

261.8% = 534 points (5518 – 534 = 4984)

And 261.8% of (2).3.C = 306 points (5518 – 306 = 5212)

Therefore, we get clusters of 5188-5227, 5105-5110 and 4784-4796. We should also keep in mind 5314, which fits with the Weekly support band of 5300-5320 as specified by Master.

Now second scenario –

This is more terrible for the bulls, as it implies that 1.C is going on and 3.C is lurking in the next few months. Now I leave it to anyone’s imagination what can be the size of the 3^rd, if the 1^st is of this size! (Don’t even think about the 5^th :P)

According to this count –

(1).1.C = 5944 – 5735 = 209 points

(2).1.C = 5913 – 5735 = 178 points

(3).1.C = 5913 – 5444 = 469 points

(4).1.C = 5605 – 5444 = 161 points

So, (5).1.C can be

100% of (1) = 209 points (5605 – 209 = 5396 ACHIEVED)

61.8% of (1) to (3) = 61.8% of (5944 – 5444) = 309 points (5605 – 309 = 5296)

127% of (4) = 204 points (5605 – 204) = 5401 ACHIEVED)

161.8% of (4) = 261 points (5605 – 261 = 5344)

261.8% of (2) = 466 points (5605 – 466 = 5139)

423.6% of (2) = 754 points (5605 – 754 = 4851)

Now this count looks interesting as Nifty abided by these ratios very nicely so far. 5401 was the place from where the last bounce came. Also, 5296 fits very well with the Weekly support of 5300 as specified by Master. Kumarji also will appreciate the importance of 5344 level. So, at 5300 Nifty will meet all the major Ratio requirements for this second count.

Inference – We should keep a close watch on 5300-5320 area in the extreme short-term as its importance is reinforced by these numbers. But medium term bears should be a happy lot anyway! :D

In the meanwhile we would get more information from the market itself as it progresses.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - -Thank You, FIRE. - -- - - - - - - - -

I would prefer if the discussions are less emotional...less subjective and focussed on the markets alone. Try to stay focussed with your trading plan and all the rest will damage your wealth. Distractions come in all guises. If you don't believe in yourself, this is not the place for you. My efforts are always to make you independent.. empower you. And I am fully aware of the intrusions in my job in a public platform such as this blog. Let us say..this classroom is conducted in the centre of a busy market place and only the "attentive" ones would benefit from it and the rest have a gala time but not reach their goals.

Nifty breaking recent lows amidst worsening week/month TA & rising VIX.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I