Saturday, May 14, 2011

What remains is gratitude than tragedy.

His parents acquired the washer when John Claypool was a small boy. It happened during World War II.

His family owned no washing machine and, since gasoline was rationed, they could ill afford trips to the laundry several miles away. Keeping clothes clean became a problem for young John's household.

A family friend was drafted into the service, and his wife prepared to go with him. John's family offered to store their furniture while they were away. To the family's surprise, the friends suggested they use their Bendix while they were gone. "It would be better for it to be running, " they said, "than sitting up rusting." So this is how they acquired the washer.

Friday, May 13, 2011

Nifty Closes below the crucial 5550.

Nifty held Monthly Low ema(5477) at the open...moved above Day's pivot @ 5512 as well as ORB high of 5502 @ 10.00AM and subsequently the supposed 5th wave got negated when it breached minor "i" wave @ 5528, thus confirming the 4th "c" wave and got resisted @ exactly 5600-5610, the earlier resistances as well as our day's resistance too.
This JNSAR trigger was not expected to fetch much gains as discussed earlier and it gave 50 points, thanks to NF premium. Keeping the 5605 resistance intact, the 5th wave down gets a boost.If not, the complex correction continues. There is also a danger here that the 5th wave could turn out to be the 3rd wave down if relabelled.(Keep this point at the back of the mind to be confirmed on a break of 5300.
A special thanks to "FIRE" for updating the readers with email alerts & short write ups - very valid points about the resistances as well as inability to close above DHEma(5594) at any Hour.

I have activated an alternative site with Wordpress and the link is provided at the top right corner...note it down for any emergencies.



Thursday, May 12, 2011

Nifty resisted @ JNSAR & having closed below 5Ema, downtrend resumes after a brief pause...

Can we stop having "I said so" and just concentrate on our works..
Do you really need "props" all the time..?
Will you ever learn to rely on your studies..?
Is doubt your second nature..? If so, take small actions based on your study..venture out there alone and prove to yourself that you too can do it.
Are we living among cacofonix...???
"5475"-MLEma has held, below which 5350 is the last medium term pivot low & weekly channel support @ 5300-5320.Below 5300, severity increases. Closing above daily pivot is the first confirmation of arrest of this fall.

Nifty Intraday Update-III


Nifty Intraday Update-II


Nifty Intraday Update-I


Nifty PreMarket View

Last supports that could still produce the bounce/ rally are 5475/5500. A complex correction could end thereabout. Larger trend remains down and this view is for the intraday traders only. Watch the ORB and 10.00AM close to show the true technical picture.

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Nifty, holding above 5540, inching towards higher range in its corrective phase.

Suresh has this dilemma of which method to follow: JNSAR or Elliott wave??.
JNSAR is a stop & reverse method..mechanical in nature and you stay in a trade all the time. However, once you are experienced, using the Tech.table, you would spot those sideways periods when Nifty closes below DHEma during uptrend or above DLEma during downtrend and adopt a trading strategy by using JNSAR as a pivot and keep part booking it near DHEma & DLEma.
Elliott wave study is highly subjective (because each sees the wave differently and there is no definition for what is a wave), though over a period of exposure you can adopt more objectivity to it. EW helps you to sell even when the trend is firm & strong as per various technical parameters and it also helps you to buy when selling frenzy is on and panic all around.

A combination may be adopted where in EW may be used for profit booking at critical reversal points. You must possess rich experience in your choice of using these methods at various points. EW helped us to spot 5935-65 resistances along with a simple price study and sJNSAR confirmed it with a sell @ 5855 and EW pointed out a bottoming near 5465 and even helped with the small trading moves & JNSAR is yet to confirm it...There could be small whipsaws.
As your example pointed out, TataMotors was a buy above 1172 as per EW and buy above 1186 as per JNSAR. If you are confident of your EW study, you would go long above 1177 and look out for an additional confirmation from the other method(JNSAR). One method should be the primary decision makin g basis and the others should come in as secondary confirmatory ones. There is absolutely no conflict here. One will be lagging and one will be leading as we have in "Stochastics and Macd combo" where in Stochastics(Lead Indicator) leads and Macd(Trend indicator) lags. It is a combination of aggressive & conservative approach. This kind of combination methods improve the returns as long as you keep them simple and in their repective places-primary, secondary.

It need not get more complicated. If one is not able to make money using these, then the fault lies with the individuals emotion-handling capability, belief-in self. One need to work on them.

Bob Prechtor who won decades ago trading in options using EW gives a lot of credit to his "military experience" where orders are obeyed without questions. When you start believing in your systems in that military fashion after having accepted it whole heartedly, you have started an automated mechanism within you which is capable of making money consistently. Once the money starts pouring in, your "ego" is likely to interfere - beware of it and keep it in check or throw it away when trading. Distractions has always been the bane of traders. Take a cue from Rajinikanth, take your laptop and go to a cave in a mountain...if that is what will solve your problem. But then, if you start running, then even an insect in the cave will distract you. Stay where you are but set your mind into equilibrium.

Nifty Intraday Update-III


Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

5505-5515 holding will commence the next rally. Failure may lead to more falls.

Nifty PreMarket View

JNSAR for the day is @ 5595 and incase it gets triggered today, it would be while the short term (read as Hour) is at "overbought zone" as per Rsi, stochastics etc and hence it might give only a small return.
As per the short term view: Nifty finding support @ 5500-5515 area for 3 days(or upto 5475) will allow it for another bounce towards 5580-5595, the resistance zone of last 3 days and possibly move higher towards 5635-5675, a multi resistance zone at which point, one could look out for weakness to emerge to initiate sell.
In sum, it is trading time @ 5500 to 5590 with a breakout on the upside holding limited gains upto 5635-5675 and break down gets confirmed below 5475.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Nifty, unable to stay above week's pivot-5590, falls to find support around DLEma.

Dear Mr. llango,

I have been following your blog with a great deal of interest in the past few weeks. There is a wealth of knowledge in it. It seems you have learnt about trading the hard way. I am a few weeks old in trading the market and seem to have some teething problems. If you would be kind enough to guide me, it would be a great help.

Nifty Intraday Update-III


Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I


Nifty PreMarket View



Monday, May 9, 2011

Nifty seem to be correcting the oversold short term trend.

Nifty trading below weekly pivot-5590 above which multitude of resistances exist @ 5615-5625. Hourly oscillators completing a cycle with muted price action indicates continued weakness. Volume too was lowest in recent times.
Break below 5535 would suggest an intraday weakness. Holding 5475-5500 could continue the corrective rally. If failed to hold, it'll attempt new lows.
Despite the rally, Fear index(VIX) is rising.

Nifty Intraday Update-III


Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I


Nifty PreMarket View

Nifty tilting to downsides in the medium term if 5350 gets broken. However, the short term has shown a reversal after positive divergences.
The retracement levels of 38%(5622) and 50%(5679) are the two levels are to be watched for development of negative divergence in the Hour TA.


Sunday, May 8, 2011

You will always walk with us, Mother.....

The young mother set her foot on the path of Life. "Is the way long?" she asked. And her Guide said: "Yes, and the way is hard. And you will be old before you reach the end of it. But the end will be better than the beginning."

But the young mother was happy, and she would not believe that anything could be better than these years. So she played with her children, and gathered flowers for them along the way, and bathed with them in the streams, and the sun shone on them, and life was good, and the young mother cried: "Nothing will ever be lovelier than this".
Then night came, and storm, and the path was dark, and the children shook with fear and cold, and the mother drew them close and covered them with her mantle and the children said: "Oh, Mother, we are not afraid for you are near, and no harm can come." And the mother said: "This is better than the brightest of days, for I have taught my children courage."