Even the pretenders has an utility..!

A man and his dog were walking along a road. The man was enjoying the scenery, when it suddenly occurred to him that he was dead. He remembered dying, and that the dog had been dead. He wondered where the road was leading them.

After a while, they came to a high, white stone wall along one side of the road. It looked like fine marble. At the top of a long hill, it was broken by a tall arch that glowed in the sunlight. When he was standing before it, he saw a magnificent gate in the arch that looked like mother of pearl, and the street that led to the gate looked like pure gold.

He and the dog walked toward the gate, and as he got closer, he saw a man at a desk to one side. When he was close enough, he called out, "Excuse me, where are we?"

"This is Heaven, sir," the man answered.

Nifty finds the cluster support @ 5450 for a bounce & closes above most Low emas.

Having closed above most Low emas and if sustained, Nifty is likely to get into a trading range. Earlier supports of @5625 & 5690-5720 will act as resistances.
Pause/ consolidation might set up the next down move scenario. However an immediate fall is likely to find supports @ 5400 zone.
For the aggressive trader, trading above the pivot has given good intra day gains and closing above the pivot may give initial gains. Trading moves are to be expected in the coming week.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

Aggressive trader would look for the completion of the down move from 5898 around 5395-5425 zone failing which it would be assumed that the waves are sub-dividing and deeper fall emerges.
If Nifty gets resisted around 5490-5500, the downmove will continue. Intraday strength will be above 5500 only. DLEma @ 5561 is the immediate resistance.

Larger trend remains DOWN; World markets are turning weak; Commodities markets are reversing sharply - read the direction as DOWN. Part booking is sensible but re-selling too is wise.

Nifty tilting to downsides.

Hour TA exhibited +ve div and reversed from an important "5465" level. Whenever it reaches 5650-5700 zone followed by a -ve div might commence the next part of the fall.Daily is clearly downtrending but Friday's price action shows a "Pause" which needs to be confirmed today.Week Prices clearly shows a clear tendency of supports and resistances around a trendline. The same suggests of a supports @ 5300-5320 and resistances @ 5720 and a bit higher for the current week. More weakness follows once the directional indicator moves into negative zone.Month too exhibits a crucial juncture for the next phase of action. This semi-log chart(Best suitable for LT charts) shows the tendency of the market to trade in the middle channel for the last 24 months which will get broken incase of a move below 5350(Last major swing low being 5348).

Nifty nearing the last of the supports(5350-5450) area while breaking LT trendline.

It is dangerous to bottom pick despite getting short term divergences and cluster supports. You need to take those risks as an aggressive trader and manage your trades. Supports are supports till they are held and they can swiftly change to resistances during strongly trending markets such as this one.

It is only our perception that market might find this one as a support and it gets validated only if a rally emerges.

The positional shorts continue to hold their shorts while part booking near the supports.

And aggressive traders style is one of playing the short swings. Let us not get this one mixed up.

The Hour chart shown earlier had a clear markings of a bear flag. While I expected it to rally high before a break-down, it chose to breakdown immediately.

SAN's chart depicted that breakdown point quite clearly.

Do not hesitate to initiate a trade once a plan is done and once the planned trade is done, stay out to plan the next one..don't rush in hastily. Money saved is money earned.

Lastly..if it is the suspected "C" wave., just hold on to those shorts and use rallies to reinitiate more as long as Tech.table don't turn green in weekly TA. (Now it is in total RED).

What happens when Fear VIX breaks past "22".?

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

A gap exists @ 5484-5496...below which 5467(Wk-S3) & 5464(Day-S2) exist. "5470" is the 61.82% retrace for the entire "5177 to 5944 rise".
Short term showed first sign of bounce but failed to hold.
Bank Nifty, however, held and closed above both Hour & Day Pivots.
These are signs for an aggressive buys during the exhausting dips as well as Part booking of shorts. 5465-5495 seem to be such an exhausting dip area..+/-10.

Note the Day Low ema of today's which would act as a main resistance. A close above that DLEma would signal a sideways market for a while just as a close below DHEma signals a sideways market during an uptrend.

Enter the market with a determination to make money with a well thought-out plan...Challenge the market with your plans...Never try to be "right"..Just make money. To measure your level of patience, ask yourself, how many points you scored in the last fall from "5898 to 5503". If you have done well, then start making the next plan. If not, enquire deep into its reasons - lack of faith in your studies..or lack of studies/ plans. Don't just float around..do things firmly.

Nifty pausing for the averages to do the catching up after the sharp falls...

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Learn before you start out to earn...

A Mail from a reader that would be answered:

Iam an ardent follower and believer of your Idea & theory.

Since last few months I have criss crossed your pages on various occasions, viewing your writeups as lexical input.

Every time I am stuck in two stops.

1. It would have been very convenient had there been a combined essay covering all the aspect, step by step, (like stiching a MALA)or should I say the considerations which goes in your mind while considering taking any position, which will enable us to enrich with your theory and experience.

2. While going through the CONSERVATIVE & AGGRESSIVE trade column which is given along with PREMARKET VIEW
I am totally confused as however it is given on premarket review unable to match when you are shifting your stance.
Going thru the write ups after you have reversed the position I have found no hint of the step in your previous or same day write ups.A mention of direction or a few consideration in which the new position is to be taken along with the same column would have helped interpret the position.

I presume you dislike spoon feeding, so do I, however, dissecting the thought of a knowledgeable trader gives an enriching polish.

Being shy of the rush in your blog I decided to email you, hope have not invaded your privacy.
I shall be really grateful for your reply.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
What goes through my mind is years of experience of being exposed to the market which translates into certain dos and donts while reading the markets/ using various studies. I have given them in the following write ups. The sequencing of my thoughts based on various studies is complex and haven't been attempted to be put in words. Would try as time permits.
Applied Technical Analysis- A summary (Wrap up)
Weekend Analysis - Applied Technical Analysis.
OPTIONS: A powerful tool to be used with high discrimination
Nifty Tech.Analysis File explained-1.
JNSAR with TA /EW / Tech.table inputs.
Regarding Conservative Trade: The trades are taken mostly as per the Pre-Market view. However, on certain occasions based on sudden turn of prices, the changed view is communicated through "Comments section". There is another criteria too that Conservative trade is generally initiated before the JNSAR trade(Except during sideways market) and hence for some reason, if it is not done, the same should be applied here and trade taken.
Aggressive trade: These numbers are picked as per my perception of the market...whether trending or sideways. You need to ascertain first whether market is trading above pivots or below pivots..closing above pivots or below pivots..overbought or oversold..near the supports or resistances based on price study. And then sell or buy as per the resistance numbers(in red) or below Pivot(Pink) & buy @ supports(in green) and if that breaks, the next support(in green too).
Understand the colouring in Tech.Table(TT) to know the severity of a trend & direction and take those trades which are comfortably positioned. Your returns will be based on risks involved. Balance it.
JNSAR Trade: Enough has been written on it. You take a trade when this number is triggered. Also know that when Nifty is trading below JNSAR, the trend may be considered to be down and your trades need to be on the sell side till a confirmed +ve divergence develops.

Nifty breaking & Staying below the earlier supports of 5690-5721, fell down with a RBI trigger.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

Trading below Weekly Pivot is a certain indication of reaching Wk/Day S1 @ 5666-68 and the momentum as well as the event(RBI policy) is likely to take it to Day R2@5634(50sma), the last support of Bulls.

Bank Nifty has broken below the trading range unlike Nifty and is on the verge of testing its Long Term trendline @ 10980.

Bulls last attempt should be today around the supports mentioned which could result in a bounce or a reversal. Failure to hold the supports would be the last confirmation of downtrend.
Stay with the REDS as reflected here till the GREENS beckon you. This is the LAW.Resold the second Lot as Suggested at the open.. Remember: When in downtrend, +ve world cues have always attracted "Selling".