Saturday, April 23, 2011

Simple way of Support & resistances for trading.

Support and resistance are important levels at which point supply and demand exist predominantly. In the real market place, prices are moved by excessive supply (from resistances) and demand (from supports). Support & resistances form integral part of trend following.
In the good old times, traders remember two most simple points from where good amount of buying(support) emerged as well as sellers (resistance) appeared. They have kept only these two points of a particular time frame(short term- for intraday and medium term for positional) and carry out their trades. The moment a support or resistance points are exceeded significantly, they adjust themselves to the new development and change their supports to resistances in the case of a fall and vice versa.
In my price analysis, I give more weightages to such cluster points of supports and resistances and combine them with classic TA and Elliott wave study to add to a likely emerging patterns. To arrive at more reasonable cluster points, use a horizontal lines on the price chart & spot the points where prices have found persistent supports and resistances.
You will do well to study the price charts of all the time frames - month,week, day and Hour and use them in your trading plan. For eg: when a day cluster support merges with a month cluster support, expect it to hold and a strong rally to emerge.
For positional traders:
For Intradayers:
This is the most basic aspect of technical analysis and also the minimum home work that is to be carried out by any trader before venturing out to the trading arena.
No matter in what time frame you trade, these support & resistances exist in all time frame and the importance of them increases as the time frame becomes larger. And the trader would do well to assign weightages to these crucial numbers accordingly.
Get Rich Slowly and surely.

Friday, April 22, 2011

Gift of love that kept returning back again and again.

A man named Bob May, depressed and brokenhearted, stared out his drafty apartment window into the chilling December night. His 4-year-old daughter Barbara sat on his lap quietly sobbing. Bob's wife, Evelyn, was dying of cancer. Little Barbara couldn't understand why her mommy could never come home. Barbara looked up into her dad's eyes and asked, "Why isn't Mommy just like everybody else's Mommy?" Bob's jaw tightened and his eyes welled with tears. Her question brought waves of grief, but also of anger. It had been the story of Bob's life. Life always had to be different for Bob.
Small when he was a kid, Bob was often bullied by other boys. He was too little at the time to compete in sports. He was often called names he'd rather not remember. From childhood, Bob was different and never seemed to fit in. Bob did complete college, married his loving wife and was grateful to get his job as a copywriter at Montgomery Ward during the Great Depression.

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Nifty pauses @ channel resistance with overbought hour readings.



Nifty Intraday Update-III


Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Dear Rajandran & Vidhya,
Wishing you a very Happy married Life.

Nifty PreMarket View.

If today's opening session makes good progress and moves past 5890-5900, it would be a smooth breakout.If it hesitates near R1-5886-5895(Daily Channel resistance), then a pull back is likely. How far it pulls back and finds support considering long weekend, market could keep us guessing for most part of the day. Pull back upto WHEma-5850 would not alter uptrend. Break-out, whenever occurs, will face resistances @ previous tops @ 5925-5945.
First sign of weakness, if any, would be below 5820.

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Nifty's ranging move within 5700-5900 takes it towards the higher range.

"5694-5944" is the range of this series. Staying above the midpoint of 5820(Friday's pivot too) favours bulls.
Day trend has turned up but just short of momentum.
After the opening session's bullishness, "fade the gap" to 5760 provided the impetus to bulls and it continued till the end.
If tomorrow's opening session makes good progress and moves past 5890-5900, it would be a smooth breakout.If it hesitates near R1-5886 which also happens to be Daily channel resistance, then a pull back is likely. How far it pulls back and finds support considering long weekend, market could keep us guessing for most part of the day.
First sign of weakness, if any, would be below 5820.
There is a "fast rise set up" developing with 5sma turning up today to confirm it.
Lead indicator is starting up from the lower range. A triggering would be comfortable.


Nifty Intraday Update-III


Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I


Nifty PreMarket View.

Yesterday's price action showed a "Pause". Under normal conditions, it should resume the downmove or continue its "pause mode" for one more day. Staying above Day's pivot-5730 & DLEma-5744, it could attempt DEma-5786 or 5800(Opening session) and if persisted, then upto 5840(10sma). Breaking below 5730, it could move lower to 5665.
Rising VIX has dragged the index down so far. Only a move past 23.50 would unsettle the larger trend. VIX below 21.75-22.0 could result in a bounce/ rally.
The short term has shown resilience around 5690-5721 zone (First two lows made when the fall started from 6339) and TT has ended the day with Hour TA Up. The day TA remains down & week TA up. Overall upward momentum is missing with a close below all High emas. Downward momentum is elusive inspite of a close below DLEma.
Few Hours of upward moves likely as per Hour TA; 5785-5805 are the resistances & strength would be staying above them.

JNSAR Remains @ 5831.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Nifty pauses at the first support zone of 5690-5721.

Today's price action shows a "Pause". Under normal conditions, it should resume the downmove or continue its "pause mode" for one more day. Staying above Day's pivot-5730, it could attempt DEma-5786 or 5800. Breaking below 5730, it could move lower to 5665.
Below chart was shown @ 12.30PM with the likely intra moves based on "perceived EW Study".That is discreet application of various studies to suit the occasion.Rising VIX has dragged the index down so far. Only a move past 23.50 would unsettle the larger trend. VIX below 21.75-22.0 could result in a bounce/ rally.
The short term has shown resilience around 5690-5721 zone (First two lows made when the fall started from 6339) and TT has ended the day with Hour TA Up. The day TA remains down & week TA up. Overall upward momentum is missing with a close below all High emas. Downward momentum is elusive inspite of a close below DLEma. That leaves us with two challenging days to handle. Pricewise..only a move past 5830(JNSAR) & 5898(Last peak) would reverse the short term down trend.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

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Nifty Intraday Update-I


Nifty PreMarket View.

Short term downtrending Nifty likely to halt briefly around 5685(Month pivot), failing which WLEma @ 5630.Below 5630, the downtrend would accelerate.
WCEma & 200sma are @ 5730-5735 and bearishness continue below this level.
Every intraday bounces will be met with selling pressure unless able to close above 5810.



Monday, April 18, 2011

Nifty, resisted @ channel top again, fell to 20 & 200sma.

Being highly oversold and closer to the cluster supports, Nifty rallied from 5810 at the open and stopped exactly @ Channel top as well as DHEma-5898 and started the slide without any intra bounces and ended at 20 & 200 sma. It has also closed below DLEma quite decisively.
Monthly pivot, MCEma, WLEma are @ 5685-5660/5630. The resistances faced during the current rally from 5177/5223 were @ 5600-5608 which act as an immediate support zone.
There was no evidence of buying support @ 200sma. Nifty has just exhausted itself after a near 200 point fall from the day's high. Tomorrow's price action will be decisive whether 200sma holds or not.



Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I