Lose the self..identity to become the master..

A wrestler called O-nami, meaning the great waves, was immensely strong and technically sound with the moves of wrestling. His physical strength and the techniques were so sharp, that he would defeat even his teacher, not to mention the fellow wrestlers in the private bouts.

The story was altogether different when the bouts happened in public. Even his own pupils would throw him. The fear to be in public seemed to work on this physically strong and so sound with sharp techniques of wrestling art. However, a man may be strong physically and endowed with the sharpest of the techniques in any field, it loses it's importance when the strength draining impulses or feelings like fear attacks the system. Out of fear the body would tremble the wits will lose it's sharpness, all the hard work done for years for physical strength and sharpening of the techniques, vanishes in moments.

That's the reason more emphasis should be put on the mental strength along with the strength of physic and strength of technique and freed from feelings and impulses that drains the strength.

O-nami felt he should go to a Zen master for help. Hakuju, a wandering teacher, was stopping in a little temple nearby, so O-nami went to see him and told him of his great trouble.

Nifty reverses from closer to the negation point-5157(for deeper falls)

Nifty reverses from the calculated short term reversal point- above 5157 @ 5160-5190 as indicated for conservative trade as well as aggressive trades.
Immediate resistance would be the 10 DMa.(5370) 5417/5429(Mth/Week Low ema) and supports 5247(DLEma) & HEma(5268).
If this rally is able to move past 5402/5416, bigger rally may unfold.

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View.

Holding above 5195-5205, Nifty could rally towards 5270-5285 and start another slide to new lows towards 5160 and then rally...
OR Holding above 5195-5205, Nifty could start another consolidation move in the range of 5200-5375 as it did last time between 5402 to 5556 in the next few days after which fall again.
If falls below 5191(S1) at the open, it should stop above 5157(S2) failing which steeper falls either to day or in the coming days.

In short, the bottom is already in or very close by @ 5160 and a good trading range is likely for astute traders while bulls and bears would slug it out in the coming days.

Nifty continues to close to the lows though some stocks did remarkable recovery.

Tomorrow or at best Monday would be "the day of reckoning" whether market finds a short term bottom or deeper downsides ahead below 5157(S2).

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

"Moving past 5277" would further confirm a short term bottom".

Nifty PreMarket View.

The immediate short term has the possibility of a reversal from 5180-5220 zone and 5206 is S1.

Bank Nifty shows more pronounced wave pattern and it shows a likelihood of completing a 5 subwaves from its recent high of 10772 (For Nifty 5556).

The coming days would show, if the reversal expected retraces for the current fall from 5556 or the entire fall. A new low around 5206 would be an opportunity for aggressive longs with appropriate stops. Remember also all the intraday rallies have met with selling in this downtrend barring major retracements. Hence... TRADE or else you'll find your profits disappearing in a jiffy. Use of trendlines will help you initiate and exit in combination with resistances/ supports and Pivots.

Nifty's intra bounces could not make any change to the "Bearish Tech.table".

Another low if held above 5160, a relief rally may emerge. Alarming is the fact that many stocks were sold with heavy volumes and intra bounces could not be sustained for another day.
VIX breaking out above 25.70 is another bearish indication..and it opens up a very bearish possibility. Moving past 5370 will be the first reversal signal to be followed by closing above key emas.
Prefered EW of 3.3.3 continues...

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

This is the alternative "5 waves down from 6181", considering reduced falls ..

Nifty PreMarket View.

FIRE's target analysis made do my bit on the chart itself. Direction is more important though target analysis helps you out with likely price clusters to watch out for reversal possibilities.
Though it looks lengthy, go with the flow..you could understand the logic quite well.This is quantity analysis at its best.
Hi..Fire.. Tell them how much time it took to get to these and also the possibility of making such an analysis during trending moves with an "Excel calculations" so others too attempt in a simple, easy way.
As usual the positive global cues may be used to initiated "Our trending trades".
Thank you Fire for such a meticulous one. You'll keep good company with AAR VEE.

In Ratio Analysis, calculating a W-5 target is easier than the other waves, just for the reason that more information is available. It is a bit tougher for W-3. But we can try. Here, I am assuming that 3.(3).iii is indeed going on.

There are various kinds of Ratio projection, e.g. External Retracement, APP(Alternate Price Projection, Price Expansion etc. I am using only External Retracement here. The things to remember are ---

Wave 3 is usually the extended Impulse Wave (Especially in Stock market).

Wave 3 is related to Wave 1 by 100 %( minimum), but in general terminates on or very near to 161.8%-261.8% of Wave 1,

Wave 3 is frequently related to Wave 2 by 161.8%, 200% or 261.8%.

We would look for clusters of possible targets to get the most probable target zone (similar to using the TT for supports/resistances).

Now, starting from the smallest timeframe, for 3.(3).iii---

3.(3).i (384 points) gives us targets of ---

5172 (5556-384)

4935 (5556-(384*161.8%))

3.(3).ii (154 points) gives us targets of

5307 (5556-(154*161.8%)) Achieved today

5248 (5556-(154*200%))

5153 (5556-(154*261.8%))

Now, going back to the larger timeframe, for 3.(3) ---

3.(1) (483 points) gives us targets of ---

5318 (5801-483) Achieved today

5020 (5801-(483*161.8%))

4835 (5801-(483*200%))

3.(2) (250 points) gives us targets of ---

5397 (5801-(250*161.8%)) Achieved

5301 (5801-(250*200%)) Nearly achieved

5146 (5801-(250*261.8%))

Now, going back to a still larger timeframe, for 3 ---

1 (648 points) gives us targets of ---

5533 (6181-648) Achieved long back

5133 (6181 – (648*161.8%))

4885 (6181 – (648*200%))

2 (491 points) gives us targets of ---

5387 (6181-(491*161.8%)) Achieved today

5199 (6181-(491*200%))

4896 (6181-(491*261.8%))

So, we get a few clusters now, which could be the target zone, i.e.

5133-5199 (especially 5133-5153)

4885-4935 (4835 & 5020 are not too far though).

With deepest regards,

Your humble student,

Fire

Nifty breaks down firmly below another consolidation zone.

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Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Intraday Bearish flags in downtrend.

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Nifty Intraday Update-I

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Nifty PreMarket view

Nifty ,mimicking the last correction of 5625 to 5801, could head higher if 5370 is held..