Saturday, January 22, 2011

See the unseen innocence..

I am able to share with my readers a little of the magnificent work of Mitsuo Aida (1924-91), a poet and calligrapher, whose poems remind us of the importance of innocence.

Because it has lived its life intensely
the parched grass still attracts the gaze of passers-by.
The flowers merely flower,
and they do this as well as they can.
The white lily, blooming unseen in the valley,
Does not need to explain itself to anyone;
It lives merely for beauty.
Men, however, cannot accept that 'merely'.

Friday, January 21, 2011

Nifty range narrowing with lower highs holding above 5620.

If you can not make money with the financial tools known to you, no new tool can save you.
If sharing is revealing your trades to others, you do not know the meaning of sharing. Share the knowledge that gives you the edge.
Just because other traders do not post their trades, it does not mean they are'nt trading.
Markets brings out the worst in us in the most unsuspecting ways.
Learn soon to forget "Day's catches as well as misses". Empty that mind of yours soon to fill with other aspects of life and then come back with a newer perspective, newer plan/ revised plan and sail another day.
One day at a time...One week at a time...one series at a time.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Nifty continues to trade sideways after the 5625 lows..keeping its downtrend intact.

Nifty showed weakness most part of the day trading below DLEma bounced off a double bottom @ 5635 and failed to close above 5DEma (5717), though closed above 5Sma.(Remember Emas are most momentous ones and closing above it has more weightage).Closing near the highs and then gapping down has been the style in bear markets - Yoda has ridden one such bear market.I sensed the frustrations in some traders for having missed the intraday rally. For intraday trading, no one tool will be helpful. Use a combination of trendlines/ divergences(there was a +ve div in 5-min chart at 5635 lows), LEma/ Hr JNSAR trigger, etc., etc. For positional trading, one tool such as JNSAR has been found to be enough and there may be other tools such as MP values/ MACD, etc.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Welcome Aarvee... Wonderful to have your presence.

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Trading it the JustNifty way.

The oft repeated query is how to use the TT(Tech table) for trading purposes. There are improvements made in the TT over a period of time. Before you begin to read the tech table, you need to understand the market moves with the help of two basic classic technical indicators:
Trend indicator (Macd) & Lead indicator (Stochastics). Once you are able to put the segments of market uptrend with corrections with the use of the above two tools to be followed with market's downmoves with its share of corrective rallies, you will then be ready to integrate the numbers that are appearing in the tech. table to fine tune your trading plans/ executions/ management.
For eg: A buy in a lower time frame while the higher time frame is in BUY MODE would be a valid signal. (If you get a price closing above Day Low Ema while it is staying above Week Low Ema, it is a valid & viable one., exceptions when a market is reversing with +ve divergences). You read your tools starting to give a buy from oversold region, prices would close above the "Low Ema" of that time frame in the TT(depends on the hour/ day/ week TA).
Once the prices close above Low Ema, it is "Buy on Dips" for the short term until prices close above "Close Ema" signalling a "Hold". The prices are then expected to close above "High Ema" indicating momentous moves ahead and you may plan your trades accordingly by adding more for the short term swift gains.
In a sideways market, the prices tend to oscillate between High & Low Emas.
Similarly when the TA tools indicate a overbought with negative divergences, the prices will close below "High Ema" to suggest a "Loss of momentum" signalling a "Sell on Rises" and confirm it with a close below "Close Ema" for a hold and once closes below "Low Ema", the downward momentum will accelerate.
For Positional Traders, the TT has JNSAR and J10.SAR numbers to initiate trades which is a simple "Stop And Reverse" method.
If you can identify a larger trend change with TA tools, TT will confirm the same with its colour changing as the prices close below HEmas first followed by Day, Week and Month. You are safe as you side with these trend indicating colours. Do not go against them as one never knows how deep is the correction/ Fall or How high is the rally/ Upmove.
Besides these, TT also has Pivot table of three time frames & Fibonacci retracements to choose supports/ resistances for profit booking & re-entry.
If you can understand the rhythmic changes of the market (Using Elliot wave/ Technical Analysis), TT becomes a ready reckoner to choose the trading as well as investment numbers.
Yes, you can use the TT for individual stocks for an effective short term as well as Long term invertment/ trading purposes.
Always have JNSAR Trade,(Positional Trade) & Aggressive trades independently as per their criteria to maximise gains.
Use Option Strategy at critical moment to Maximise your returns.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Nifty shows exhaustion in downtrend with +ve div./ no new low/ close above prev. day high, etc.,

Larger trend remains down but the downward momentum is neutralised with a close above Day Low Ema. It should stay that way in the coming days for a reasonable retracement rally to emerge in the coming days. At which point the selling will emerge: there are many resistances which were once supports. Earlier bottoms of 5690 & 5721 should hold to take them higher.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty fixated at "5696" for a some time now..Decisive move soon..5680 - 5696...

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View.

Staying above 5640, a small rally is possible to be confirmed with a move past 5696(Yesterday's high); then a resistance in 5700-5740 zone above which 5770-5800.
Breaking below 5640 decisively will continue the down move for some sharp falls.
Any rallies or sideways moves are only "Pauses in the downtrend" with low volumes. Trade cautiously.

Monday, January 17, 2011

Nifty slows down near 200sma/ MonthLowEma.

The best bullish case I can currently think of is that if Nifty holds above 5595(approx), it could do a retracement rally(5755/5836/5903) for the 6181-5624 fall in the next 3-4 days and resume down towards the low for the settlement on 27th Jan.11.
JustNifty TA(18); BankNifty TA(18)
The differenece in the above "Lead indicator set up" during the last stay below 20 mark for few days and this time : is that the Monthly lead indicator is moving below 75 mark.