Saturday, November 20, 2010

Appreciation v/s entitlements

One young academically excellent person went to apply for a managerial position in a big company. He passed the first interview, the director did the last interview, made the last decision. The director discovered from the CV that the youth's academic achievements were excellent all the way, from the secondary school until the postgraduate research, never had a year when he did not score high.
The director asked, "Did you obtain any scholarships in school?" the youth answered "none".
The director asked, " Was it your father who paid for your school fees?" The youth answered, "My father passed away when I was one year old, it was my mother who paid for my school fees.

Friday, November 19, 2010

Nifty continues trending down with intra-day corrective rallies.

The ferocity of the falls brings forth the question - Whether the rally from 2259(2539) has ended at 6339.Negative divergences in some Index heavy weights compels us to think so. Such higher time frame divergences do not get corrected in short time and tend to last..
There are some channel supports close by(5750-5800), break of which may give more confirmations.
Patches of greens were visible in Hour Tech.table and 5963-5965 held for two hours and once broken resulted in a swift 100 point fall to 5865.
I am wondering, once again, what is in store for the next week with 4 trading days left for the settlement.



Nifty Intraday Update-III


Nifty Intraday Update-II


Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View.

RAJAGOPAL has moved on to Commodity market but continues to trade in Nifty and has requested to be excused from updating his files.
SUNDAR's file may be used for updating any set of stocks...you simply replace your stock's data.
T-O-T AMIT has programmed "the Blog-data Sheet" in NIfty TA file in such a way that you just need to update the data which takes up few seconds, everything in the Blog-data sheet with its various emas, etc., changes automatically. It is really amazing and unbelievable and it frees up quite a lot of the user's (mine too) time.The same will be replicated to BankNifty TA as well as other stock files as soon as possible.
I can not thank these gentlemen enough..true crack(ed)pots..leaving behind beautiful flowering gardens wherever they walk..
Thank you..Thank you...Thank you...
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Always part book on your overnight longs with a week end ahead and raise the SL as the hours move on since the trend is said to be down as long as Nifty is closing below 5,10 sma/emas.(6070-6115)



Thursday, November 18, 2010

Nifty does a "Bullish Hammer pattern" & needs a follow up.

Though Nifty has made a "reversal pattern" which requires a "Follow up confirmation, one should be prepared to trade 5925/5950 - 6100/6135 zone & reverse to Shorts since weekly set up continues to be weak.
Bearish scenario: Top is in; 1st wave done and a 23.6% to 38% retracement to be followed by a very big drop.
Bullish scenario: A temporary bottom is in, if not another one at 5750-5850 and market reverse to make another high.
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The Bullish Hammer Pattern is a significant candlestick that occurs at the bottom of a trend or during a downtrend and it is called a hammer since it is hammering out a bottom. The Bullish Hammer Pattern is a single candlestick pattern and it has a strong similarity to the Bullish Dragonfly Doji Pattern. In the case of Bullish Dragonfly Doji Pattern, the opening and closing prices are identical whereas the Bullish Hammer Pattern has a small real body at the upper end of the trading range.

Recognition Criteria:

1. The market is characterized by a prevailing downtrend.
2. Then we see a small real body at the upper end of the trading range. Color of this body is not important.
3. We would like to see the lower shadow at least twice as long as the real body.
4. There is no (or almost no) upper shadow.

Explanation:

The overall direction of the market is bearish, characterized by a downtrend. Then the market opens with a sharp sell off implying the continuation of the downtrend. However, prices suddenly turn upwards, the sell-off is quickly abated and bullish sentiment continues during the day with a closing price at or near to its high for the day which causes the long lower shadow. Apparently the market fails to continue in the selling side. This observation reduces the previous bearish sentiment causing the short traders to feel increasingly uneasier with their bearish positions.

Important Factors:

If the hammer is characterized by a close above the open thus causing a white body, the situation looks even better for the bulls.

The Bullish Dragonfly Doji pattern is generally considered more bullish than the Bullish Hammer Pattern and a higher reliability is ascribed to this Doji than the Bullish Hammer Pattern.

The reliability of Bullish Hammer Pattern is low. It requires confirmation of the implied trend reversal by a white candlestick, a large gap up or a higher close on the next trading day.

http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs18.asp


Nifty Intraday Update-III


Nifty Intraday Update-II


Nifty Intraday Update-I


Nifty PreMarket View

Thank you very much.
You have made my day wonderful with your wishes.
We'll always cherish it and keep going back to it like children to feel "Being loved and wished by so many loving hearts".
.....................................................................................................................................
The positive divergences will manifest in higher prices. Play such longs only for very short term. For the settlement, the bearish undertone will raise its head again when least expected..6 trading days..6 x 7 = 42 trading hours.
As my critic pointed out, "Complacency is the first enemy to progress". So continue to manage your positions.



Wednesday, November 17, 2010

I love you more than I can say..

I'll always be there for you.
To make you feel that you're secured. And even if the rain is pouring hard and the sky is almost dark, I'll never leave you just so you won't feel alone. Even if the friends & relatives had left, I would still stay by your side, just so you won't feel alone.
You have me who'll be willing to help you cope up in every frustrations you're having. Every depressing moments, every down moments, every self-worthless-realization moments, I'll be there, not because you want me to be with you, but because I want to be with you.

I'll always appreciate every little thing you do. Even a smile would mean a lot to me, just because you own that smile. And that even if no words are expressed as long as the eyes understand, you'd be able to communicate, just like that. I guess the silent communications would easily outnumber the words.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Nifty has painted a "Total Red" in the tech.table..

Positive divergences persists in the "Hourly T/F" alone but the higher T/F TA is down.
As of now only a close above 6130 would reverse the downtrend.
Break of 5935 may lead to the next supports around 5850..
As there are 6 trading days left to the settlement, the action will only get wilder.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Tomorrow is a Holiday.. It is Providence's Gift to me.. :)

Nifty Intraday Update-II

The similarities are amazing. Will it play out. The underlying change is the larger time frame TA..2.00-2.30PM onwards, expect some change.

Nifty Intraday Update-I


Nifty PreMarket View



Monday, November 15, 2010

Nifty, holding 50sma (6037), attempted 20sma (6131)

And they complain, don't use MA.
Premarket range: 6055/6065 to 6125/6145 v/s actual: 6039 to 6129. If you check on the trading plan in label section, the steps taken to arrive at such trading ranges are given in a "Simple" way so that you do not have to wait for my "Secret recipe".
Now look out for 6155: R1 and weekly pivot. Above these 5 ema & the emerging DHEma.
For supports, there is "Hour Low ema"(6081) and S1 @ 6064...
So trading would be 6065/6080 - (6095Pivot) - 6155/6165.
Is that all..?? Then, there is trendlines, macd set up and lead indicator.. Ohh..My God.. thats really complex..man.
How do you expect me to chew gum and walk also. have a heart.
Now you want millions... slog it out.. Ohh..I'm already sweating..
I do not wish geniuses to drop into my class room. When I want some "Guest lectures", I'll send an invitation. Stay wherever you are and be good.
"Prove somebody wrong".."Pick a hole in another's life"..Man..this "itching will never stop".
My father brought us up drilling "Mind your own business".. Well, Our business is sharing..what's yours..Fishing...???
JNSAR is a secret..So what..? Has it ever been missed here. And I have made it very clear to you, it is only a pivotal number. Hence, J10.SAR was shown. You can have J7.SAR, J12SAr, J13 SAR, J20.SAR, J50.SAR, j200.SAR depending on your time frame..investing & so on. But have the discipline to follow them diligently.
Am I a teacher.. or Master..? You must really be kidding yourself. All my student days, I used to "lead" the study groups. I wasn't teaching them anything but just removing one thin layer from their understanding..Wow..they can see things crystal clear.
I am just a "Reminder"..And I'll remain so. have no other interest.

Please don't appreciate anything here. Don't call me anything.. Just a "ilango" will do..My father always told me stories about "ilango" and brought me up and google that Prince.

Make money and I am always there to remind you of what is the right thing to do. If you want to do something in return for me, you know what to do. Just do it.


Nifty Intraday Update-III

Resisted @ HHEma and consolidating.If holds HLEma, it may attempt another high either today or tomorrow.

Nifty Intraday Update-II


Nifty Intraday Update-I


Nifty PreMarket View.

If the sharp fall is losing its momentum with the emergence of +ve div in the 5-min NF Chart, a pause/ relief rally (A +ve div in Hour chart will have more lasting rally) may unfold in the form of a zigzag or a triangle.
This counter trend move may be traded using the retracement for the 6331-6057(holding above friday's lows). First indication for such a development would be the close above "Hour Low ema" at 10.00AM.
With only 8 days left to the settlement, Nifty is trading below the median of this series - 6140 -(5937 to 6338)which suggests of ending of the series at the lower end unless this week's price negates the "Bearish engulfing pattern" of last week.
Hence, it seems certain that the tussle will be to stay above 6140 and it will start in all earnest with today's action. T R A D E for 2-3 days and re-initiate positions as per the emerging prices on close basis.


Sunday, November 14, 2010

Critical weakness in Heavy weights that resulted in this big fall.

Go through the Stock files in "STOCKWEALTH" (the links for some stocks are given there). Similar settings could be kept in "iCharts" or any other softwares for monitoring and there were many compelling -ve divergences in daily and in some cases even in weekly time frame.
The remaining part of the corrections (If it is a correction..!!) in the coming days whether market holds larger support levels (meaning they are likely to be tested) or not will become a critical input for future trading strategies. Tech.table will definitely capture those moves.
If a 5 part decline is underway from 6339 top, it may be taken as the concluding part of the 4th wave within the larger uptrend and holding above 5850, markets may set itself for a "year end" rally to complete another glorious year for the Bulls. Such a sharp move may result in weekly negative divergences to set up another significant top.
However, if this 5-part decline is followed by only a "part retracing move up" and thus fail to make a new high in Dec or Jan, then the next fall will be more severe than the current one.
In either case, a Top seem to be the case in the coming two months if not done already.