You always get whatever you truly desire...in unsuspecting ways.!

As Kevin sat intently in front of the old 19 inch Zenith television set with rabbit ears and poor reception, his mother watched her little seven year boy move almost theatrically as he cheered Lassie on. "Go get 'em girl, go get 'em!" He'd look forward to each episode as Lassie would save the day on each and every airing of this show.

His mother had memorized Kevin's question as it was sure to follow at the end of every episode of Lassie. Per usual, he quickly spun around while sitting Indian Style on the floor and asked, "Mom?, Can I have a Lassie dog? Please mom?"

As she gazed into his eager eyes she replied, "Honey, I'd love to give you a dog like Lassie, but I've said it before--dogs like Lassie like to be outside and run." Desperately trying to convince him she added, "Kevin, I have told you over and over again that our yard is too small for a Lassie dog!"

Kevin appeared pensive for a moment and then excitingly exclaimed, "I have an idea mom! I 'll teach the Lassie dog to stay by me all of the time so she won't get lost or hurt!" His mother appeared surprised that Kevin could creatively think on his feet so quickly.

Nifty has nearly completed the bear rally..? or in its next uptrend..?

Nifty has given a weekly "rebuy" but lost its daily momentum with its 2 days of sideways move.
Holding above 5445, upmove may continue while break of 5430 may lead to resumption of downtrend. Month/ week pivots have aligned @ 5445.
5500-5515/25 continues to be supply zone.

For the day, Nifty stayed below the day's pivot @ 5493 and mild sell off was seen. This could continue into Monday opening session too.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Only by holding above 5480, a fast rise possibility here. If not, it could drift lower.
If closes below Day High ema(5492), reduce longs.

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

Nifty, OB, eases off the highs.

Nifty keeps within the 80% retracement mark and eased off the highs after gap up as well as from sharp rise in just 2 days. It could remain subdued if world cues are muted.
Monthly pivot @ 5446 & weekly pivot @ 5450 are likely to be the bases and if trade below daily pivot @ 5493, short term selling may continue - call it correction or reversal.

"5495" was the 2 month old trading band's top and sustaining above it is a minimum requirement to continue the upmove.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Happy Janmashtami.

Fondly,lovingly called "Kannan" by us, He has made me cry a lot and laugh too.
Everyone marks His "Baby steps" at their door steps to invite all that "Joys & great teachings" into their house.
He has been guiding me through many such "Baby steps".

Nifty Intraday Update-I

JNSAR - a Stop And Reverse Trading method.

Trading based on JNSAR:
My sincere gratitude to MOK for his constant workings on it, co-sordinating with Piyush sharda, Manojag, Yoda, assortz, RM, Sujatha, aarvee to find out the flaws, adding the "Filtering idea" and also the idea of "Ploughing back the profits" to increase the trade size once a solid base is built. MOK is still at work. In due time, he will deliver the final product. MOK has been the added spirit and enthusiasm to this "trading method". He is currently busy with his project commitments. In the meantime, "why let go off opportunities..?"
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JNSAR is a number based on market's strength and weakness as well as the balance of demand and supply. Whatever the number may be, a choppy market could whipsaw the number occasionally to shake off your confidence in them. However, staying with one method brings you consistent winnings.
Step:1: As the JNSAR for yesterday was 5468 and the previous trade taken was a sell @ 5483 on 25.08.10, the moment Nifty breached 5468 yesterday, you close out your earlier short and take a long position in minimum 2 lots - Stop and reverse (SAR).
Step:2: If after triggering a reversal trade @ 5468 and markets fall again, you do not change the trade on the same day as JNSAR is done only once a day but do so only the next day based on next day's JNSAR. (Risk averse could have a Stop loss in extreme choppiness but the essence of JNSAR is to keep the trade once triggered and manage it the next day only. If and when such extremes take place, I'll be around to alert you. This has not happened in the last 3 years).
Step:3:Once a new trade is taken in aminimum 2 lots, you book on one lot with a profit of 50, 100+ points and keep the 2nd lot till a reverse trade is triggered based on each subsequent day's JNSAR.
Step:4: After booking out on the 1st lot, if Nifty climbs back substantially and start to fall again, take a new trade again. For Eg: After triggering a sell @ 5483 on 25.08.10, Nifty fell to 5392 on 27.08.10 and the 1st lot was booked @ 5397 and on Monday, it rebounded to 5469 and started to fall breaking day's low @ 5441, another sell could have been taken and another profit booking would have been done. This step is optional and suited for the experienced.
Step:5: You may use the filter of 0.2% to 0.3% on JNSAR for 2 days once JNSAR new trade is taken to give the new trade a fighting chance & survive. For eg: For the new long trade taken @ 5468 yesterday, the JNSAR of today @ 5457 may be altered to minus 0.3% to 5441.
Step:6: Donot count your winnings. Stay focussed on each trade. I show the winnings in the table to show you that " I T I S P O S S I B L E".

Some readings are listed below. You will also find some write ups on it under "Always start trading with these"-step:6 on the side of this blog.
The Stop and Reverse (Known as SAR,) is a trend following indicator, that was developed by J. Welles Wilder. The Parabolic SAR is based upon the theory that a strong trend will continue to increase in strength over time, and will therefore follow a parabolic arc. The Parabolic SAR is displayed as a single parabolic line underneath the price bars for a long (upwards) trend, and above the price bars for a short (downwards) trend. The Parabolic SAR is displayed on the same chart as the price bars, and is the yellow lines in the example chart (full size chart).
Calculation

Trading Use

As the Parabolic SAR is a trend following indicator, it is only designed to be used in confirmed trends, and will give very bad results in a small ranging or sideways market. Entries are signaled by the start of a new parabolic arc, and exits are signaled by the price touching the parabolic arc. As the price touching the parabolic arc, is also the reason for the start of a new parabolic arc, the exit from the current trade and the entry into a new trade occur at the same time (hence the name Stop and Reverse). An alternative way of using the SAR might be to indicate the direction of the current trend, and then make entries and exits based upon another indicator (such as a momentum indicator).

More on SAR method.

Nifty picks up momentum on the rebound with a close above High Ema.

The Comment that made my day.
S S Cheema said...

thanks! And just by the way... tell that *ss to count me in that one percent...
Cheers
September 1, 2010 3:51 PM

Needless to say everyone defended with valid points and that is really heartening. Naanga velayadra edathula vandhu thondaravu pannadey.... (Don't disturb us where we play)..
I know there are many more in that 1% - some quiet & some vociferous.
I have not invented TA..EW..Ema, I repeat. So did all the machinery mfg.erers the wheel, piston, motors B U T they put together all of those components based on an idea and created something quite "Useful" and it becomes theirs.

We have put together such a system based on various "inputs" which alerts us to the change in the direction when most "tear their hair".. We ride the moves of all time frames... You have to choose the one that suits you. "Daily" is the best for most.

There is nothing like "going back to the school" to brush up on what we have learnt..it helps.
Correction, if any, or profit booking/ supply will be noticed in 5495-5515 zone depending on overseas clues.
Note how Nifty managed a climb above day high ema - that is momentum..Now for a follow up.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Dear alpesh,

I have attempted to figure it out. It still not clear. There could be other possibilities. It fits well so far.You know the 1,2,3 waves from our earlier posts. SO I have given from 4th wave onwards. This "C" down can take many shapes. Lets follow it.

Market has established "5423 to 5444" range till now. Now trade the break out.

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

Staying above "5432-Close ema", Nifty may attempt "5465-Highema" (May change as the highs are made today) on the back of positive global cues.
Those who carried the aggressive longs created at 5355 with a close above Day low ema @ 5400, may trade their position based on the "trading levels".
A filter of +0.3% can be added to JNSAR, if you wish. (5468 + 0.3% = 5484)

Nifty,oversold, rebounds mildly from 7week old 5350 support.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

It is choppy and not clear enough to label them, though I have attempted it.

Nifty PreMarket View.

Make up your mind about what you believe in. The system, the method, the plan.
Spend a lot of your time and energy on understanding the principles, logic & authenticity in them, backtesting for satisfactory results, trouble shooting situations and the strategies required to handle them with limited damage, make an elaborate planning on "How to go about it" and then strip it down to a simple tradeable/ investible plan.
Now shut your mind from other distractions, stop talking about it. Don't allow the "nay sayers" to doubt your method, puncture your dreams.. Simply follow your plan to the minute details. Trade / invest accordingly.
Now you are on your own two feet. You do not require any ones' crutches.Fly away.

I hear those doubters saying, "Its alright to talk about it. Do paper trade on them. But doing it in real market place is scary...unsettling...not possible". Then, Get out..this is not the place for you.

Even Mohammed Ali had a coach teaching him the routine training excercises, strategies to be adapted to different situations. Finally inside the ring, it is only Ali who has to fly like a butterfly and sting like a bee. And he did it. All because he believed in something... Believe in himself. Belief in his coach..belief in his strategies..

All you have to do is to have an armoury of trading/ investing techniques OR just one weapon. Use it well.
Kai irandu, Kaal irandu Kadavul kodutthan manidhanukku,
Idayam matrum onru vaitthan sindhanai oru valzhi selvadharkku
(God gave you two hands, two legs
But gave you one mind to stay focussed)

Now its your choice...Stay focussed or Stray and be lost.

The simplest things of "Doing the same thing again and again, we businessmen have prospered over centuries...why do you want entertainment from the most profitable place".. But most find this to be hardest. Change your perception.
Yesterday is gone..Yesterday is gone. You always make money Now.You repair your life now. You create the magic now. It can't get simpler than this.
Keeping below "5435" - week ema, bears will attempt 5373-Week low ema and close the month below 5416-month high ema. Bulls would want to defend the last lows 5372 & 5350 and attempt to take it above 5-ema-5446..

Nifty ends at the month's opening & closer to the monthly lows.

Tech table identified the tussle point for tomorrow - 5416.(Monthly High ema)

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II