Saturday, July 31, 2010
This family made a big impression on me. There were eight children, all probably under the age of 12. You could tell they didn't have a lot of money. Their clothes were not expensive, but they were clean.
The children were well-behaved, all of them standing in line, two-by- two behind their parents, holding hands. They were excitedly jabbering about the clowns, elephants and other acts they would see that night. One could sense they had never been to the circus before. It promised to be a highlight of their young lives.
The father and mother were at the head of the pack standing proud as could be. The mother was holding her husband's hand, looking up at him as if to say, "You're my knight in shining armor." He was smiling and basking in pride, looking at her as if to reply, "You got that right."
Friday, July 30, 2010
After looking for "ending diagonal" or "impulse move down", the inability to reach 5415 after so much time as well as the sudden quicker retracement of the intra upmove should have alerted everyone of "5385" in the last update.
Mynac has been talking about the tough "5395"
Golfdude spotted today the resistances of 5380-5390.
arpit boldly shorted BN.
Neha observed the 50min sma moving below 100min - bearish.
Prabhakar noted 5415 not cleared..still in corrective.
Manojag noted the "impulsive 5 waves" & wouldn't hold longs till Aug.04.
Satheesh- identified the break down at 5392 at 1.00PM.
alpesh-you asked of BN- I have hinted the upmove post triangle of last few days should be the last move.(stockwealth blog)
And Rajagopal, Piyush sharda & rochak parekh have been cooking "fat goats" whole day as though IDD is today..!
I had to leave owing to urgent tender works. However, there were so many great observations of the day as mentioned above.
Earlier impulsive 5 wave count is also in the reckoning...(ivth of 3rd ended @ 5415 yesterday, "vth" is on to move below 5381. The decisive stage would be when this 4th & 5th wave start to unfold..) In sum, 5370 to 5415/25 would be an initial range.
Strategy should be of initiating some aggressive longs closer to the "invaldation point" as a low risk entry and if breaks down, initiate a small sell & average on the rebound.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Have patience and wait for the market to confirm your trading plan. Go with your observations however conflicting it may be but maintain the exit plan & reversal strategies.
Markets can still surprise us inspite of overwhelming evidences till the prices confirm.
EW baby step #1: If you watch a baby trying to walk, you'll notice the determination and "never give up attitude" and above all "one pointed mind" and it finally makes it. I suggest here to simply to count the impulsive waves(trending up or down) only initially. You need not base your trading on it but look at the marvel unfolding. Elliott generally ignores the topping and basing waves if they are choppy but mostly they all fit in the final analysis. This basic counting of 1,2,3,4,5 of an upmove unfolding or a downmove(this could be either 3 or 5). In the chart below, I have labelled 1, 2 and the 3rd is on with sub dividing waves(Most often the 3rd wave sub divides) and when I spotted the "iii" nearing an end, I suggested yesterday that it may trade the remaining day in "5385 to 5415" based on the closer supports and the sub wave 4th of that "iii". Each wave sub divides into 5 in an impulsive mode and during gap downs & ups, they may not be visible.
I have been literally developing TA from the scratch by reading a book and developing the formulae myself and doing it all on paper & graph paper for many years before moving to computer with great relief.(Imagine calculating ema, rsi, roc, etc everyday for 5 to 8 scrips). Though this "hands on" helped to feel the market, I would often fail following just the indicator and the TA worked differently at different set ups/ instances.
Though I had a small 6 page write up on EW for many years with me, I never ventured into it fearing it to be "complex". I realised it too late that it is only my misplaced perception. Once I read those 6 pages, I searched and got this book by "Robert Beckman" on EW and read it non stop and my TA application started to improve and after an initial success, the obsession took its toll now & then and I took few steps back to put it all together and then it made sense in the whole comprehensive package.
In the final analysis, EW has helped me like a "Compass" to navigate through the mystical waves of market movements.
Nothing was ever achieved without many setbacks. How many brilliant cricketers and footballers you come across regularly. A "Pat Cash" of Tennis who trounced Boris Becker in Wimbledon simply disappeared. Why..? You can achieve success with hard work. Any one..I stress it here..anyone can achieve success. But a lasting success..a consistent performance of the likes of Sachin, Federer, Einstein & many more is possible only with "One Pointed Discipline with persistent perseverence".
A small advice to new visitors: You may copy all you want, you may even get some instant fame but if you have any conscience left, that will take care of you.
Pinky, take Mynac's advice in the right spirit. He simply pointed out "Why skip the credits" but you chose to delete the entire post. Why..?
Most lasting change started in my life when I read "Experiment with Truth" by M.K.Gandhi when I was only 15 and was acting like a "Pokkiri".
Update on AD Line chart: Broke the trendline few days ago and re-entered -ve zone yesterday.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Settlement day may throw up some intra surprises. Read "Shai's" settlement day action based on the study of OI & MP action.
Remember market will turn choppy before a decisive move of medium term sets in and it coincides with "settlement, Month end, New series start", a perfect recipe for an exciting new Series.
One word of caution: Aggressive bearish scenario will develop only with a break of 5350, therby changing the weekly TA which is in the OB region. Till then, play the ranges. Last of the major result is out last evening...of RIL. Now a decisive move will be seen before this Friday.
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
For the short term: A close below 5415( daily channel) would put pressure.
Being in the settlement week, use the choppiness to exit part longs.
Trade your positions based on the daily levels.
Though the uptrend is intact, negative divergences can suddenly effect some sharp changes.
Auto sector generally start the uptrend.And auto stocks showed big selling with volumes. This does not mean that other stocks should follow immediately. They may or they may after some time. Weakening breadth is another cause for concern.
Best strategy would be to book profits in those overbought ones with divergences.
For the day:
5415(Break dn point) - - 5430(Pivot) - - 5445 (break up point)
5390 support.................................5460 Resistance.
Monday, July 26, 2010
If the top is in, it should soon break below the trendline @ 5415 and move to test the 20 sma @ 5350+.
The micro wave count has 2 possibilities both pointing a short term top.
Below is the top @ 5453 and the friday's high as a part of the corrective's irregular 'b'...this is bearish.
Below shows the truncated 5th high @ 5466 being made at the open today. Though bearish, it has the possibility of "ii"nd or "b" wave attempting closer to the highs.
All these analysis will become invalid on a move past the Friday high.
First sign of weakness with a close below "Day high ema"(Nifty could not go towards it throughout the day) which will require some follow up close below Close & Low emas(both getting closer too).
"This week for RIL" mentioned 2 weeks ago did not oblige but this week/ today might do it. Above 1075, it would show a breakout with 1050-1055 as the support to be intact for upside potential.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Only by applying what you have learnt, can you progress well and it goes for both life and trading.
I have chosen in life to follow certain ideals and have faced difficulties, lost a lot of relationships and it has never been my loss as I am quite content in this journey inspite of many instances of disappointments. It is my journey and I have chosen it this way. I am sure you excercise your free will to choose yours which is closest to your heart. You have 90 minutes in a football game and only what you do during that 90 minutes count, not before it or after it. You can take this 90 minutes as your life time...or your trading hours...or your family time and whatever you choose, play it with all your heart.
Markets are like the slippery fish, often escaping even a firmer hand. We have outlined in the above write up certain methods to capture a large chunk of the market and we should simply do it. Be flexible enough to use different method when the situation demands.
We tend to place undeserving importance to others opinion and conclusions and regret not following our own counsel. If you are confident and convinced of certain studies..be it TA, EW, MP, FA, Astro, Gann, Music notes, follow them to their logical conclusion. The biggest enemy in this journey is "getting distracted" and only you can take the required steps to deal with such distractions.
Lead indicator: Only leads...It shows you the reversal only and not the tops or bottoms. It showed an upward reversal from the 4786 low point which is yet to be reversed in this weekly Time frame.
The same "Lead indicator" has shown few minor reversals of "Ups & Downs" in the day Time frame from 4786 till now. Each reversal has given a minimum 100 points if the signals are accepted. You can now fine tune further down to "Hour Time frame" for the next reversal..
Use the Head only for "Planning" and disconnect it once the execution starts and especially during celebrations.
A blind boy sat on the steps of a building with a hat by his feet. He held up a sign which said: "I am blind, please help." There were only a few coins in the hat.
A man was walking by. He took a few coins from his pocket and dropped them into the hat. He then took the sign, turned it around, and wrote some words. He put the sign back so that everyone who walked by would see the new words.
Soon the hat began to fill up. A lot more people were giving money to the blind boy. That afternoon the man who had changed the sign came to see how things were. The boy recognized his footsteps and asked, "Were you the one who changed my sign this morning? What did you write?"