Good bye, my little boy..!

It is "the college admission time":
Dedicating this post to Manojag, Prabhakar, Rajagopal & all those fathers seeing off their kids.
My 23 year-old son Dan stood in the doorway, ready to say goodbye to his home. His rucksack was packed and ready for the journey. In a couple of hours he was going to fly out to France. He was going to be away for at least a year to learn a foreign language and experience life in a foreign country.

It was a milestone in Dan’s life, a transition from school days to adulthood. When we were to say goodbye, I looked closely at his face. I would like to provide him with some good advice that would last longer than just here and now.

But not a sound came over my lips. There was nothing that broke the silence in our house by the sea. I could hear the sharp cry of the seagulls outside, while they circled over the ever-changing and roaring surf. Inside I stood motionless and silent, looking into my son’s green eyes with that penetrating look.

Nifty getting closer to its 1st target.

Week trending firmly above the 5-week sma and holding above the crucial trendline @ 5300.
The candle formation is not significant as it has appeared in both short term reversal as well as in continuation structures.
@ FIRE, You are right about the triangle in the 4th. Now for the confirmation with a follow up price move on Monday.
Soak in the crucial weekly pivot(5427) as well as resistances(5500-5550)(targets) and supports.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

"Overbought Nifty"(Hour T/F) is cooling off. TT guides it if more weakness appears.

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View.

The 2nd wave of the rise from 5350NF took 9 hours. Wait for the 3rd wave to end(a second high of the day). The 4th wave may take 9+ hours and the 5th of this upmove may happen on Monday. We should study the price upmove for the intensity or the lack of it to know whether it is the terminal one or part of an extended wave for much higher targets. Staying with the trend ( a simple 5sma/ema helps)keeps you safe.
Knowing that a correction is on helps you to weather the frustrating phases of the market and stop you from commenting "market is going nowhere" but sense the strength/ weaknesses of the bulls & bears during that corrective phase.
Robert Beckman says, " The best phase of the market during which the strength & weaknesses of the bulls & Bears are tested is during the corrective phase and you learn a lot about the market & its likely future movements by mastering, studying the types of corrective phases". That is 80% of the market hours (sitting tight...Chumma iru as Lord Muruga said to Lord Shiva)(Mortals will have tough time sitting tight) and the remaining 20% is harversting time - closing out as well as initiating positions.OR is it 85:15 or 90:10.

Nifty climbs the wall of worries.

Nifty has taken support at this 42 day old trendline again today and moved up sharply ending a frustrating 5 days of sideways move. Work on such critical points everyday & keep them ready.

We should monitor the minor wave movements and combine them with world cues and plan our exit & new entry strategies. All the emas have gone above the smas and prices closed above momentum indicating High ema giving good bullishness.

However, our earlier plan called for a 5th of the 5th around 5485-5500+. A firm week will give way to firm settlement as well as a firm month, provided 5400 is protected here on. 5 days to settlement & 6 days to month - a lot can happen. Staying with the market using the 5 day ema/sma has helped us safely through, though an exit & a re-entry was done.

It pays you well to do your home work..and redo them..and rework on them. Whenever you feel, you have covered all angles, market may surprise you.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

5375 & 5402 are decisive in the immediate Time Frame.

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

I read an Open Interest Analysis by Aarvee. It shows the floor- highest PE(5300), ceiling-highest CE(5500) with most of the action centered around 5400(both CE & PE rising).
Currently the range is 5360 to 5415 and it can exceed by 15-25points on either side.
You can only trade for few points each day.
As per EW, adter a first fall from 5453 to 5361("i" or "a"), the correction seem to be continuing. If the brief break of 5361 is part of that correction, it is bearish(irregular correction).
In Bank Nifty too a range trading is on. But most of the action is in the stocks.
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Hour Chart by FIRE:(Break of Pink line indicates serious fall - 5365)

Nifty stays within the channel.

A small gap up makes it possible to climb back into the channel. "5380" becomes the breakdwn level and 5415, a break out level. Negative divergences persist.
Staying in a small range makes it possible for the "leadindicator" to turn up. Hasn't failed sofar but that is no guarantee. Need to see a break above 5415 & then 5450 firmly.
High ema has given resistances and low ema has given supports and the range is stagnant to be resolved soon.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

It has done the first two moves: going upto 5410 and pulling back till now.
5375 - Channel bottom & 5380-days low & Pivot.Below this - new lows.
If able to move past 5410, then look for 5425/5445.

Nifty In6traday Update-II

You don't like EW, we don't care.
You don't like T.A, we don't care.
You don't like this blog, we don't care.
Velayapparuda..Avanavan joliapparungada.
5415 and 5385 are the decisive numbers for the day.

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty Premarket View.

This correction from 5453 has a logical minimum target @ 5317(S2). However, markets aren't perfect...only the forms are important.
"40 day old channel - broken in 1min & Hour but intact in Day" which gives room for one more upmove possibility and this has a deciding level @ 5445(R2 of today).
If the 'c" wave has to unfold in 5 waves, then after a gap up opening @ 5380-pivot (c.iv), a pull back will happen to a new low(c.v) or a truncation(@ Low ema).Hence, immediate downside is limited to 5345(S1).
The chart below shows the leading indicator which has been turning up at a higher point than the previous one during this upmove and this time it is poised at one such higher point for a reversal.
This following scenario has been discussed on the Anniversary day here. To have this in contention 5365 should hold and should move past 5415.
"Shorts" are created yesterday but the crucial "5357-5361" has not been breached decisively yet but an indication has emerged. Staying above the "Day Low ema @ 5356", Nifty has possibilities for another upmove and short term too has that possibility even if there is a dip - direction to be up after an initial choppiness. Repeat yesterday's action: Take an aggressive long & then convert it to conservative if closes above 5-ema.
Trade safely.

I will be busy through the day but will update the tech. table.

Nifty breaks the 40 day old channel.

Will make a brief write up later.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View.

At 8.15AM:I have edited the "Recommendation Table" from sell to S&R @ 5360. Will review it when near 5425-5430.
Any correction has distinctive 3 waves labelled as "abc" except for triangle correction which has 5 overlapping waves labelled as "abcde". The chart below shows a development of "a" & "b" and a move below 5380 will result in a breakdown and a move below 5361 the confirmation of the 3rd wave-"c'. If not, "b" wave can continue upto 5425-5430.(75% retracement)
As the "a" wave had 5 sub waves as only in "zigzag", the 'c" wave tend to get equality and hence a likely target of 5409 - 92 = 5317.
Alternatively, it could become a larger impulsive correction which only time will tell.
How do you read this table for trading purposes..? You must do so with the chart above whenever there is a chart available.
Table shows a clear Uptrend in both Day & Week time frame as Nifty has closes above their 5 period Ema (Shown with a green). Use ORB for confirmation of intraday Trades on such days when a reversal is expected.
There is a pivot, the central point of market move for the day. As we expect a "down day" sell below 5386 or 5384(VAL-Value Low) and it should start trading below 5380(5-DEma) and the next point of break is 5361 -the earlier important pivot low("a" wave)/ Support-1. Break of 5361 may lead to Support-2-5338- also the high of this settlement's early day's High & many up waves-ivth waves and finally 5320-5325-20sma.
If there are any +ve results/ Asian +ve, the immediate resistances to keep in mind above yesterday's close(5386) are 5393(POC-Power of control); 5403-(VAH-Value High) and 5410-Resistance-1 as well as yesterday's high.
Bank Nifty has not yet shown weakness - watch it as it could spook the trading plan. But if it weakens, the plan will go through.
"Break of 5361" confirms the short term reversal & a move past 5435-the continuation of upmove.

Nifty poised for a down swing..!

After the sharp fall 3 days ago, Nifty has had sideways move retracing upto 50% in 3 days. A 61.8% retracement would come to 5417 & 75% at 5430.(a maximum for a zigzag correction).
The smart holding of supports after negative Dow cues hasn't resulted in any follow up buying nor any short covering. Break of 5370 should lead to 5300-5330 zone. Bullishness may return only above 5435.
Hourly channel seems to have been broken.
And so did NF-1 min channel.
Hour TF in "sell mode"; Day in 1/3 rd sell with 1/3rd Buy & Hold.

Nifty Intraday Update-III