4th of July Born USA...It was in your eyes.

It was a bitter, cold evening in northern Virginia many years ago. The old man's beard was glazed by winter's frost while he waited for a ride across the river. The wait seemed endless. His body became numb and stiff from the frigid north wind.

He heard the faint, steady rhythm of approaching hooves galloping along the frozen path. Anxiously, he watched as several horsemen rounded the bend. He let the first one pass by without an effort to get his attention. Then another passed by, and another. Finally, the last rider neared the spot where the old man sat like a snow statue. As this one drew near, the old man caught the rider's eye and said, "Sir, would you mind giving an old man a ride to the other side? There doesn't appear to be a passageway by foot."

Nifty, though holding 5200, failed to rally up.

There is enough breakdown in the oscillators to suggest underlying weakness.
It is possible the 5th wave may have ended as truncated on 30th June @ 5320 and the minor i, ii may have been done and iii to unfold or ii to continue a bit more. OR Holding above 5165, the 5th wave may commence on Monday.
All these are possibilities.
Prices, the final factor, is holding the weekly channel as well as the Hour NF channels. Until the prices confirm with a firm close below these channels, options are open to all views.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View.

A move past 5315 will confirm the 5th wave in progress.
5265 may be at the open & 5285-5295 later on may act as resistances.
Break of ORB low may alert you to a drop below 5230.
Consensus seem to be to hold 5200 as of now. Euro gives a thums UP.
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Hi..Golf dude, Excellent piece on Anger. Any action taken while in anger results in destruction only. Knowing oneself, increasing your consciousness, Power of Now are the ways to conquer it.
"Unnai arindhal Nee Unnai arindhal ulagathil poraadalaam"
(Knowing yourself, you can face all hurdles in this world)
Knowing yourself, you never need any company..you are never alone.
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Nifty's channel support of diff. time frames.

EW labeling is never edged in stone, they are quite fluid when the market unfolds. It is the most flexible one that gives you few possibilities. Whenever the possibilities are narrowed down, the success rate becomes high. And when the probable scenarios are many, you trade light or stay off.
EW did not fail today. I failed. I failed to look for the alternative views.
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Dinesh Rishi is known to our readers for a long time and he has a blog of his own- Bank Nifty Trading- and he follows a "Mechanical SAR system" which has generated unbelievable returns to the disciplined trader in a very short duration. The records are there in his blog for anyone to verify the facts. He has been working constantly to improve trading methods and sharing it with his readers.
He has found another goldmine - POTS - (Profit Only Trading Sustem).
He will share it with you when you send a test mail to him-dineshrishi@gmail.com
Anuj has correctly described him to be another "Cracked pot". And Anuj seems to be specialising in cracking many perfect pots with his jokes.
We seem to be attracting a lot of them.
Be it any method, system, the success of it will depend solely on "You" following its plan/ rules as laid down by its creator.
While the Day Channel has been breached briefly, the Nifty future 1-minute channel has some more room for corrections. Which will it be - it should be known soon as TA is getting weaker.
Though Nifty has been breaching below 5240 for the last two days, a close below it may turn the trend down.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Hour 9-Rsi chart reveals the corrective nature of this market. A break out may give an upward momentum. Till then lows are possible.
Interestingly, the +ve divergence persists and the major concern is that it is taking sooo much time to reflect into price upmove.. Be alert.

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

I have relabelled the 4th wave correction with a double zigzag considering the weakness overseas. Yesterday's move may then be labelled as an 'abc' instead of 123.
This last move down of 4th(If it is) should not move beyond 5160 considering the expanding nature of this corrective with each leg exceeding the previous one. If there is bullishness it may limit itself to 5250 or 5200.
Until it moves past 5325, correction continues.

Nifty makes Ralph.N.Elliott proud.

How grateful I am to the "years of hard work" by this wonderful person, Ralph.N.Elliott that we could understand market movements at the darkest hour too.
My gratefulness extends to those technical analysis developers- Gerald Appel (Macd), Wells Wilder (Rsi), George Lane (Stochastics), Leonardo Fibonacci (Fibonacci retracements)as well as fundamental analysis expert Peter Lynch (Fundamental analysis).
Truly blessed we would be if we can make the best use of their works and educate a few in our life times.
The 4th wave ended by breaking the channel bottom & reversed sharply, a typical trait of the 5th wave. Note also the 3rd wave (5367) ended by overshooting the channel top, a trait of 3rd waves in general.
A simple calculation gives 5522 as the target for the 5th wave. (5210+312(5098-4786)=5522)
A move above 5325 would confirm a break above the corrective channel from 5367 to 5210. In the end, it turned out to be a shallow one only with a dramatic ending this morning.
The crucial "Monthly TA" turned up firmly after whipsawing for the last two days. This could set up for a very big move provided certain levels are held.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View.

There was a "spark" last night, followed by "FIRE".
When you spot an end of a wave in the daily time frame(3rd), you must reverse your position. I did not though I saw this correction coming, prejudiced in my little brain it would be a shallow one. Those who play by the Tech. table, even if they were whipsawed twice, would end being a big gainer.
TA inventors of RSI, ROC, MACD, EW's Ralph.N.Elliott, Fundamental analysts like Peter Lynch, Benjamin Graham, Warren buffett, Fibonacci mathematician and many have spent their entire life to create some outstanding studies for the coming generations to benefit from.
Many sensible people are following their studies, improvising them to the changing environment and benefiting from it all silently.
"Criticising" is the easiest thing to do. Businessmen(including traders/investors) who are interested in the "serious money making endeavour" will either use whatever is working and discard whatever isn't working.
If the "excel sheet" is a failure to you...EW has failed you...TA has let you down, start introspecting for your own sake, not for the excel sheet, EW, TA as they don't need you. If you are a wise person, you will seek good counsel.
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I have presented this chart. make your plan and if it does not look promising, wait for a better one. Do not chase prices. Get your levels which will have your Sl quite close by. This chart is yet to make a negative divergence which will happen only with a new high.
It is my mistake, I had to change my original plan. As "Yoda" put it simply, sell below 5-ema close & buy above 5-ema close would fetch you big returns.
Today's rally could be "iv"th of the "c" wave of the 4th and another move down too is possible. So the strategy is buy closer to 5165-5200(+/-15)

Elliott wave - a simple labeling

When you study Elliott waves in the application of trading/ investing, have the Buddhist principle of "Balance" in mind & follow them. Apply them to daily/ weekly charts more and less to hour charts. When it is not clear/ obvious, do not force a label.
Believe me, it is the easiest of all, mostly misunderstood and the major failure by its practitioners is due to "not believing what they see in the first place and thereby complicating it".
An Invitation to enter the world of Elliott waves - Part-1
Introduction to Elliott & his Wave Theory - Part-2
Elliott wave Principle-Rules & Guidelines - Part-3
Elliott wave Corrections - Part-4

Nifty's correction gets deeper.

Month which was in "Sell on rise mode" since May.10 has its High ema @ 5285- a close above tomorrow will reverse the month TA. Watch for "5285".
Daily channel break may get supports from 20sma @ 5195-5205.
Long term channel which was broken in the last fall from 5400 to 4786 will come into play @ 5165-5175 zone. A second break would be bearish.
NF 5-min chart has been trading down from the channel top towards the channel bottom - there are two supports, one has given supports today and the other, if there is negative cues, may offer supports tomorrow @ 5190-5205 zone.
With quick succession, the day emas have given sell, buy and now a sell. Quite challenging.
But the EW's 4th wave possibility should have guided you to the "Hour emas" for trading those days. I would give two more days (max.) for this correction to complete and show signs of reversal. Bank Nifty gives cause for concern..

Nifty Intraday update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday update-I

Nifty Premarket View.

I would like our "Doctor friends" to respond to this:
Whenever a patient comes to the doctor complaining of an illness, the basic steps a doctor takes is to check the patient's
Heartbeat with his stethoscope
Pulse rate with his fingers
Blood pressure with BP monitor AND
more tests done from the labs if the situation warrants.
Such a disciplined doctor makes correct progress - the easy way..the disciplined way.
No doctor gets obsessed with BP or pulse, etc but uses it to gauge the severity of the illness and he does not treat the symptoms but the illness with the acquired knowledge of these symptoms that was generated by the illness.
IN MARKETS too, just the study of prices may give you only supports and resistances but never the strength/ weaknesses or their continuity. The oscillator- study is similar to various tests done by the doctor to know the nature of the illness (One such example is given below with the 9 day Rsi chart) and using these one follows the market well.
Knowing about the disease is the primary job of the doctor and he does a better job of it by using these study of symptoms. Even EW practioners have found the use of oscillators as a great guide to label the moves - ask Robert Prechter.
As long as the trader limits himself to the study of oscillators/ indicators as "tools" only to understand the market's strength/ weakness/ direction and NOT get carried away/ obsessed by them, he/she would be on his/her path to "Getting rich slowly".

Nifty gets its momentum with 5285 support.

The momentum is back but "a follow up buying" should be seen. If not, it would be termed as the fake 'b' wave of the 4th wave with another move to "low ema" or lower to complete this correction closer to the channel bottom.
A complete "green" in the tech table and the 55 ema has moved above 55 sma to confirm the last bullish set up but the 13 ema has moved below 13sma and so too 5 period ema/sma - they should turn to green soon or else the short term could face weakness. (See them in the last few rows)

Nifty Intraday Update-III