You can take it with you..!

There once was a rich man who was near death. He was very grieved because he had worked so hard for his money and wanted to be able to take it with him to heaven. So he began to pray that he might be able to take some of his wealth with him.

An angel heard his plea and appeared to him. "Sorry, but you can't take your wealth with you."

The man begged the angel to speak to God to see if He might bend the rules. The man continued to pray that his wealth could follow him.

Nifty's slowing momentum post break out..?

Nifty has clawed back into the channel, though not with a momentum. A drop below 5050-5070 would make it more difficult to climb higher.
If a corrective 'abc" is done, the earlier downtrend may resume. After the break out from the downward sloping channel, today's move has been quite slow, not impulsive.
A negative divergence over the week end should never have been ignored. My critic as well as many readers pointed out the same. Now the channel support comes around 5030-5040.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

There is some negative divergence in 5- minute as well as in Hourly too. Caution @ 5160-5200 band or on a close below "Day High ema".
As mentioned in the comments section, larger trend remains up.(Day - up; week: most likely to turn up with today's close above 5077)

Nifty Intraday update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

Nifty needs to close above "5077" today to confirm a weekly reversal which is in down trend for 4 weeks. Hence, the fight is likely to be in that zone which might be closer to today's Day High ema.

Nifty breaks out of the Channel.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

This is the "Hour time frame" - Daily trend as per Tech.table is UP & intact.

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View.

The short term rise from 4786 to 5098 is being corrected. If the correction is over, this 312 point rise might be matched with an equal rise from 4961. If not, it might spend another 2 days trading this 4960 to 5080 band before deciding.
Why so..? It could also be a simple retracement for the fall from 5215 to 4786 and the next downmove may unfold but the short term TA which is "OS" can still keep this move up.
Once this is resolved, we will discuss the "forgotten scenario" where in this down move was labelled as "2nd or b" and a larger upmove to unfold. But I would suggest we wait for market to unfold its strengths and weaknesses for such a possibility. Market is reaching "OB" & "OS" so fast that "being alert" to the changing ways of the market is a must to stay alive.

Nifty pauses for what..?.

The last rise (From 4675 to 5400 took 39 days) has not been retraced in faster time(39 days gone by and the bears could press it down upto 4786 only). That is a small hope for the bulls. The double scenario continues irrespective of the above fact. Last week was a pull back week which continued into Monday and the fall has commenced again. The expected "pause day" has now passed today. The remaining two days of this week might give us some clues of the undercurrent or could muddy it further.
Under such a situation, short term trading with well calculated levels keep the cash drawer ringing and keep the traders afloat. Trade light in this area of 4960 to 5095. An inverted H&S pattern in Nifty continues provided it does not fall below the recent lows.(4961). The channel top @ 5070 and the Neckline @ 5105-5135 are the two important resistances.
Nifty had a gap down @ 5080 few days ago and 5000-5020 has acted as resistance /support on many days and 4960 too has acted as a critical level on many days in the past 6 months' falls/ rises. At a time the bears want to wrest control from bulls, this 4960 to 5080 seem to come into play and assumes significance.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty Premarket View

Nifty pulled back upto the rising channel on Monday but failed to move back into it suggesting continuation of downtrend.
In the very short term, two scenarios at work:
Bearish: Pull back completed at 5098 and the next downtrend started which might pause @ 4895-4935, retrace upto 5000-5020 and commence the downmove again.
Bullish:Nifty may consolidate in 4950 to 5050/5070 for two days and then move higher towards 5160-5200.
Any fall beyond 61.8% retracement @ 4896 will weaken the possibility of bullishness.

My availability will be limited as my assistant has taken ill and the work load just got trebled..!!

Nifty starts June with a big fall..

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View.

A correction is on - Use ORB for confirmation only.
Many are asking whether a mechanical system can be made out of the "Tech. table" ?? - May be. I never tried it. I use the tech table as a reference point only...a confirmatory tool as I do with indicators and others. I have the time to study the market in its complexity and try to feel its pulse.
But for those who can not afford so much time, there are "Swing system" based on "n" period of high/ low breach play (Eg: 5 day swing, 10 day swing, 20 day swimg)or a Follow the macd or a tech.table based "Long on a close above 5-ema (Some swear by 3/7 ema) and so on.
What ever you choose, back test for a period of 2 years spending some time on that research with long trades initiated, whipsawed, etc and the returns and combine the same with some "Profit taking methods". Only when you are convinced, should you put them to trade/ invest.

Why do I have both "Buy" & "Sell" suggestions - because Nifty is at another inflection point. There is a clear possibility of moving higher post this correction. Monthly charts of many stocks too give such an indication.
A correction is on and it may resume the downtrend for one more new low.
In sum, you sell first and then buy - Ohhhhh- that is trading..you got it.

Nifty ends at another (last) channel resistance..

Prices have shown bullishness by closing above both 20sma & 200sma for two consecutive days. Two days of intra corrections have happened. Lagging indicator-macd is in buy mode while the leading indicator-Stochastics is in OB zone, though they can remain there for long time too. 5135-5160 is the next strong resistance and then 5200.
Today's high touched the last channel resistance - anything beyond 5100 will be a clear breakout.
Below chart was drawn 5 days ago. If it continues to follow it, Nifty should consolidate in 5165 to 4985 zone. The last rise from 4675 to 5400 has not been retraced in faster time, suggesting the fall to be of corrective kind.

No weakness in the tech. table, except that the monthly has closed for the first time below 5-ema which will bring the bulls out to defend it.
Monthly price charts present some bullish possibilities provided Nifty stays above 4935-4965.

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View.

@ Sumitabh,
The circled areas are the "Price clusters". Keeping note of these help in analysing price strengths & weaknesses. A larger time period, say 12-18 months of hour chart would provide more "potential clusters".
@ golfdude,
Congratulations to you on your new blog. I will prepare a S&P file and send it to you. Even with limited data, your table has given some good trades.

If you are bullish inclined, you may buy @ 4985-5005 and hold it with a SL 4945.
As there is no clear pattern or EW completion, trading the levels would be preferred.

Few queries and weekend Analysis with AarVee.

Reader 1:

I buy when Hrly 5 ema cross & close above daily 5ema , & sell when 5 hrly ema close bellow 5 daily ema. Just reversing position as per system.Three questions i have in my mind hope i will get clarifications :

1. Will this one a good trading sytem ?
I have never looked at it this way but from the fact it is based, it is obvious that if 5 hour ema moves above 5 day ema, it has to be strength. Now the most important question is: Is it tradeable..? How much lag in time it leaves you and how far away from the bottom or top it generates a buy/ sell. Have you back tested over a period of ...2 years.

2. When should I book profit or I have to do partial profit booking?
When the larger trend is still in force but the short term is "Overbought with negative divergence", it is time to do partial profit booking. Full booking may be done when the larger trend is overbought with negative divergence and your system suggests you to initiate a SELL.

3. Any other term (indicator) I have to consider or add into it? I think i have to consider two terms Like trend Line(channel) & divergence.or just that ema will work(need not to consider other things)?
That is "three questions in one"... I have a system that incorporates Macd-fast & slow, stochastics-5 & 14 periods, Pivot points showing critical highs and lows, Channeling, Tech. table with three important emas - close, high & low to show the trend and its strength & weaknesses as well as their momentum and finally Elliott wave analysis - a labeling system which maps out the price advancement and retracements and reversals in an orderly way. I have summarised these and presented it in "Technical analysis" under "LABELS" in my blog.

4. One more doubt gap up & gap down???? if it is opposite of our position??? How to tackle this?

When ever market is trending up, the gap downs upto close ema or low ema may be used to enter into long trades. "ORB" too helps in this method. Similarly, in a downtrending markets, the gap ups provide excellent opportunity to sell orders. This is not a rule but it works most of the time.
Reader-2:
5. I wanted to do Intraday trading alone. I look into MACD first to check whether its bullish or bearish in a Daily Chart, Next I confirm with Stochastics and RSI. After in Intraday, I check in Hourly chart for Oversold and overbought using RSI and next i enter trade in 5 minute chart but manytime i enter trend is reversing , I cannot find perfect entry point always there are any problems. Sir, Hope you will guide me How I can do good trading with some strategy.
In a trending market, buy into "every 3 wave declines/ retracements" for better entry & hold.
Once the trend shows fatigue with "overbought readings", study the price chart, especially the hour chart for "Price clusters" to understand the likely supports and resistances and position yourself to trade the ranges.
Never trade based on indicators as they only indicate the likely direction but can reverse suddenly too. By studying the "price clusters", you will be able to trade with ease. Try this - you will find amazing results. And when you do, keep your feet firmly on the ground and head down with emotions under check and stay away from market men. Emotions can easily unsettle all that you have built..
Trading is just like any other business - more the secrecy, more the success.

******************************************************************
Aarvee's Analysis:

I am taking some time off from active blogging due to family and work commitments. This journey has been truly a great learning and evolving experience under your guidance and cooperation from friends. My sincere Thanks.

I am posting few Charts that are throwing some Answers(part-1) and asking some Questions(part-2) at this crossroads where both the Bullish and Bearish side can be argued with equal conviction.While I can have my perceptions and be biased, the Charts have none. It will be helpful to follow these Charts and keep them handy for trading in near future.

With Regards

AAR VEE

Dear Aar Vee,
Solitude/ seclusion brings out the best creative energy. Take care of your other commitments, dear aar vee and when you find some interesting observations to share with us, the doors are always open and don't take too long.

A story that can change your life

In 1972, Jim Cathcart was working at the Little Rock, Arkansas Housing Authority, making $525 a month, with a new wife and baby at home, no college degree, no past successes, and not much hope for the foreseeable future.

One morning, he was sitting in his office listening to the radio, to a program called "Our Changing World" by Earl Nightingale, who was known as "the Dean of Personal Motivation." That day, Nightingale, in his booming voice, said something that would change Jim's life forever: "If you will spend an extra hour each day in study of your chosen field, you will be a national expert in that field in five years or less."

Jim was stunned, but the more he thought about it the more it made sense. Although he had never given a speech, he had always wanted to help people grow in areas of personal development and motivation. He began his quest to put Nightingale's theory to the test by reading books and listening to tapes whenever he could. He also started exercising, became better organized, and joined a self-improvement study group. He persisted through weeks of temptations to quit, just by doing a little more each day to further his goal. Within six months he had learned more than he had in his few years of college, and he began to believe he could turn his goal of becoming a motivational speaker into reality. All the hard work, the discipline, and study paid off. Jim now has delivered more than 2,500 speeches worldwide and has won every major award in the speaking industry.

Just like companies have market value, so do people. In the simplest terms, your market value increases by knowing and doing more. Knowledge is power, not only for your career, but also to improve your family and spiritual life. I once heard a quote that sums it up well, "Knowledge is like climbing a mountain; the higher you reach the more you can see and appreciate."

I love stories because for me, they can bring an idea to life.

By Mac Anderson. Founder, Simple Truths.