Not just caring...But Show You Care..

A teacher in New York decided to honor each of her seniors in high school by telling them the difference they each made. She called each student to the front of the class, one at a time. First, she told each of them how they had made a difference to her and the class.

Then, she presented each of them with a blue ribbon imprinted with gold letters, which read, "Who I Am Makes a Difference." Afterwards, the teacher decided to do a class project to see what kind of impact recognition would have on a community. She gave each of the students three more ribbons and instructed them to go out and spread this acknowledgment ceremony. Then, they were to follow up on the results, see who honored whom, and report back to the class in about a week.

NIfty closes below weekly Channel.

6 days to the Month. A close below 5105 will generate a Monthly Sell.
5 days to the week continuing the downtrend if a close below 5082.
5 days to the week giving a pause to the Down if closes above 5017.
Daily "Sell on rises" would be intact below 5020 Close.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

9-Rsi has shot up sharply..

A stale mate with Low ema holding and High ema resisting..
for Short term trading.

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

"Rug being pulled under the Bull's feet day" is here..
(May get repeated once more later).
@ IITian: the New Kid on the blog - You nailed the big fall yesterday afternoon. Good start to your joining the enthusiasts.
@ Satheesh: +ve divergences that appear during 3rd waves are traps. The other way to look at it is - a critical channel breaking time or higher trend like Day, week yet to reach the OS levels.
@ golfdude: Replace the day & week data of "Nifty T.A" file with S&P or Dow prices (Can be downloaded from Yahoo Finance)
@ Rajagopal: "OS" may remain "OS" in a strongly trending markets till daily bottoms(lead indication from stochastics) and then a +ve div (Rsi or macd).
@ Warlockar: Settlement will be closer to the lows - could be 4700.
@ Narasing: I have been posting regularly Bank Nifty analysis in my other blog - "Stockwealth"
@ asrani: Never count your winnings....just be in the Now - so much is happening.

Nifty pauses with + ve div in Hour..a trap..?

It continues to be bearish with Huge falls ahead masked in "+ve div.. trap"..

Nifty Intraday Update-IV

Another Photfinish - this time by the Bulls
to close the Hour above "Hour Low ema"..
(Caution, however, about the larger trend being DOWN)

Nifty intraday Update-III

At 1.12PM:
Good News..
Gautam Bajaj's Father is doing well now.
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There is a Pause in the fall from 4908. This relief rally may last 2-3 days if 4925/4908 is held.
4976 is the Day low ema. If closes above that today, such a pause would be confirmed with a maximum upside of 5020-5050.
Such resistances to communicate - Let it pass..Let us not try too hard here.
Take a break..Trade light.
Trend continues to be down..
Hold your shorts.
Intra Longs must have a SL @ 4925 or 4920.

Nifty Intraday Update-II

A range trading may be happening in 4925 to 4985 for the day. Trade light. Do not remain Long below 4925.

Nifty Intraday Update-I

I will update with new posts till the Comments problem is resolved.

As per EOD, 4965 to 4985 are the resistances.

Only a close above the Day Ema will caution of larger bounce (I doubt it )
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At 9.36AM
@ Sanju & Kris,

I read your comments..

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Nifty resisted @ 4965 - 4985 (4975) and followed it with ORB sell too.
(4950 to 4975-ORB)

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Mojib,
ilango sir will market move further up from here .do u find any positive divergence in hourly chart .

@ Mojib,

I am bearish and advice you to sell into rises and hold for settlement lower levels.
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Rajagopal has left a new comment on your post "Nifty PreMarket View.":

GB : Just tell us Fine please.

Manu : Any news? Ungli chalao.

Hi Sri,Doctor.

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fritzroyreport has left a new comment on your post "Nifty PreMarket View.":

Raja jee - y r mania's called manias???? becos they supercede all the previous expectations.... india and china are going to have to increase the circulation of currency tremendously in next decade to accomodate for the money inflows running out of western world.... This would primarily be driven by fear rather than greed ---- signing off... would comment EOD
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rahul has left a new comment on your post "Nifty PreMarket View.":

ilango sir good morning i had short nifty 4958 should i wait for 4880

@ Rahul,

For the day - you are likely to get 4880 to 4890 levels and below that 4835.
It is possible if 4950 is not breached from now on.
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9.50AM.
@ Rahul,

On the other hand, trade the range of 4920 to 4990 before next down move starts.

@ Dr.Saurabh,

I read your comment. You are right. I meant Rs.40,000 per 10 gm of gold but typed it as 1 gm. Appreciate your corrections.
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Comments may sort itself soon as they are starting to appear again but slowly.
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NEW POST DONE with Tech. Table.
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Nifty PreMarket View.

AS comments are not appearing but I am receiving it by Subscribing to the comments. I will reply in the posts. I will keep updating new posts.
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This "Short Term indicator-Rsi" shows the declining momentum of rises and gathering strength of the downmoves , supported by FII selling and prices reaching the lows consistently. Price being superior, any strength will definitely get reflected in it.
Advances/ Declines presents a very Bearish picture.

Nifty breaks a major support today..

Nifty Intraday Update-III

This chart will be followed with other TA & EW considerations.
It goes to emphasise the power of "Trendlines" that are forming basically due to "Supply/ demand pressures"...
Isn't that Market all about..?

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

The dreaded big fall is yet to show itself.

Nifty PreMarket View.

Nifty's 2nd day intra correction ends with selling.

Dear Gautam Bajaj,
Our Best wishes & Prayers for your father's operation to be
successful and a speedy recovery.
Everyone appreciates your concern for your fellow traders. God bless your family.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

It is a Photo finish for the Bears..!! at 2.00PM.
(Closed below HH ema)

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View.

An exchange with a reader worth sharing with all.
Dear Ilango,

im writing this mail to you as today im very frustrated with my trade ,below I'm explaining how my trade goes in detail, and i just want to know where i should have booked my niftyfut.
1. shorted 4 nifty at 5182 on friday.
2. 1st booked at 5135, 2nd booked at the 5100 and 3rd at the end of the day.
3. now i left with only 1 nifty, on monday i saw the level of fut 4960, and finally closed my short at 5044. i saw my profit wiping off. plz suggest me where should i had my trailing stoploss as i dont want to book it early which take me out of trade and at the same time i do not want to give back my profits which happened today,
4. plz guide me how should i hve gone with this trade.
Thanks.
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The reply:
If you had a plan, then the 1st target would have been 5135 on friday. I, too, suggested but advised to reshort on bounce upto 5155+. It bounced briefly to 5152 and fell. If you were not able to sell at the bounce, resell at the break of 5135.

The next target is the 200sma- talked about widely by almost everyone - 4975.

You have to have these levels handy and if you monitor any charts, then see whether they are "OS" at such levels, then Buy.

The intraday chart would show you a slow fall upto 4966 from the open and if a resistance line was drawn, it would have given a break out @ 4980-4985. That could have been a trailing SL in an aggressive way.

These were all only "Part booking" and one could have either got back their selling or sell tomorrow near resistance 5100-5135, if we get. Nifty is still trading below 5, 10, 20 sma. Trend is clearly down.

Another way to book profits is to see how far it has come away from the recent highs or lows- this may not work all the time but it is a reasonable one.

Eg: @ 5135, Nifty was only 78 points away from the recent high of 5213 - Not a compelling one to liquidate.
@ 5000 , it is 213 points from that high of 5213 - OK.
@ 4975, it is 238 points from the high of 5213, a bit compelling.

We also need to have the previous 12 months period's ranges:
From 4726, it fell to 4353 = 373 points
From 5182 , it fell to 4539 = 643 points
From 5311, it fell to 4675 = 636 points.

So what we have so far is much lesser than the earlier drops and this drop is owing to week & monthly sell signals.

Nifty rallies off from "OS" short term.

Nifty Intraday Update-IV

Nifty found support at 4954-4965NF.
Nifty has closed above "Hour High ema".
If it closes above "5058", the short term bounce might continue with some caution.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

NEW POST @ 2.50PM

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View.

If the Asian markets continue to trend down, do not attempt any intra trades till atleast the 200sma @ 4975 is reached and support becomes evident.
As the OI position in the futures market is quite high, the falling markets will induce "unwinding" from time to time.
Only when a temporary bottoming is visible with "OS & +ve div", should one attempt intra long trades.
"Money saved is money earned"...."Opportunities are uncountable in the market place".

Aar vee's Week end analysis & my critic's view.

Posting the Analysis for Positional Trade.Have tried to explain through some charts, hope they do the needful.

1.Weekly Chart

The Nifty Weekly chart shows the weakening trend and trading below 20W ma.It gives the Channel Bottom Trendline support at 4800 levels in coming weeks.

2.Daily Chart

The Nifty Daily chart shows the Fibonacci levels for the upmove from 4675-5399 along with the 20 and 50 Ema lines(5175-5185 area) which will act as Major Resistance .The 200 dma line(4982),which is also near the last swing low(4984) can act as Major Support. Below which is the Channel Bottom Trendline support at 4800 levels.

It also shows an ABC pattern movement of Nifty with positional target of 4760.

3.Volume Profile Chart(5D)

The last week Volume Profile chart shows high volume areas which will act as Resistances during any upmove in May series.Last trading day selling happened at 5175-80 area which will act as major Resistance as it is also the 20& 50 dema area.

Nifty will turn bullish only above the close of 5200 levels, which are recent highs in last Week trading and Price Rejection area.

4.Misc Observations

(a)The last close at 5094 is below both Daily and Weekly Low Ema. More importantly it has closed below Monthly Ema, turning the overall TA Bearish for this Month.This has happened after several months as shown in the Tech Table.

(b) The tug of war area will be near 200dma .Any upmove from 200dma,(4982) and 61.8% retrace level,(4950) will meet strong Resistance at 5125(38.2% retrace)-5157(Weekly close 5ema ).This area is also a high volume area in Volume Profile.

(c) Weekly and Daily charts have Channel support area near 4800 levels.

5.Personal Bias

It remains Bearish since April first week with positional targets of 4800 levels as frequently mentioned .The Monthly SAR for now becomes 5215 closing basis.

I hope ‘MAY’ series settlement may oblige or can extend to early next month as mentioned in last weekend analysis also.

6.Three Month Chart

It is an interesting chart showing line chart for closing price since three months.
For TA educated people ,the pattern may look like a bearish ‘Rounding Top’,to a layman like me , it looks like a TOPI (‘Topi Pahnana’ is a desi slang meaning-To trick someone) ,which has been tailored for traders with 'Buying at Dips' formula.

Thanks,with Regards

AAR VEE

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The few factors that convinced my critic of this downtrend are:
1. FII selling in a big way.
2. Broader market lagging the frontline scrips as shown in the two charts below: Nifty.500 lagging the Nifty.50.(This is his AD ratio)
3. OI keeps rising and the prices falling.
4. The most reliable slow macd trending down in the negative zone below its trigger.