The Nifty Weekly chart shows the weakening trend and trading below 20W ma.It gives the Channel Bottom Trendline support at 4800 levels in coming weeks.
The Nifty Daily chart shows the Fibonacci levels for the upmove from 4675-5399 along with the 20 and 50 Ema lines(5175-5185 area) which will act as Major Resistance .The 200 dma line(4982),which is also near the last swing low(4984) can act as Major Support. Below which is the Channel Bottom Trendline support at 4800 levels.
It also shows an ABC pattern movement of Nifty with positional target of 4760.
3.Volume Profile Chart(5D)
The last week Volume Profile chart shows high volume areas which will act as Resistances during any upmove in May series.Last trading day selling happened at 5175-80 area which will act as major Resistance as it is also the 20& 50 dema area.
Nifty will turn bullish only above the close of 5200 levels, which are recent highs in last Week trading and Price Rejection area.
(a)The last close at 5094 is below both Daily and Weekly Low Ema. More importantly it has closed below Monthly Ema, turning the overall TA Bearish for this Month.This has happened after several months as shown in the Tech Table.
(b) The tug of war area will be near 200dma .Any upmove from 200dma,(4982) and 61.8% retrace level,(4950) will meet strong Resistance at 5125(38.2% retrace)-5157(Weekly close 5ema ).This area is also a high volume area in Volume Profile.
(c) Weekly and Daily charts have Channel support area near 4800 levels.
I hope ‘MAY’ series settlement may oblige or can extend to early next month as mentioned in last weekend analysis also.
6.Three Month Chart
For TA educated people ,the pattern may look like a bearish ‘Rounding Top’,to a layman like me , it looks like a TOPI (‘Topi Pahnana’ is a desi slang meaning-To trick someone) ,which has been tailored for traders with 'Buying at Dips' formula.
The few factors that convinced my critic of this downtrend are:
1. FII selling in a big way.
2. Broader market lagging the frontline scrips as shown in the two charts below: Nifty.500 lagging the Nifty.50.(This is his AD ratio)
3. OI keeps rising and the prices falling.
4. The most reliable slow macd trending down in the negative zone below its trigger.