One morning, the Mongol warrior, Genghis Khan, and his court went out hunting. His companions carried bows and arrows, but Genghis Khan carried on his arm his favourite falcon, which was better and surer than any arrow, because it could fly into the skies and see everything that a human being could not.
However, despite the group’s enthusiastic efforts, they found nothing. Disappointed, Genghis Khan returned to the encampment and in order not to take out his frustration on his companions, he left the rest of the party and rode on alone. They had stayed in the forest for longer than expected, and Khan was desperately tired and thirsty. In the summer heat, all the streams had dried up, and he could find nothing to drink. Then, to his amazement, he saw a thread of water flowing from a rock just in front of him. He removed the falcon from his arm, and took out the silver cup which he always carried with him. It was very slow to fill and, just as he was about to raise it to his lips, the falcon flew up, plucked the cup from his hands, and dashed it to the ground.
It is a possibility - Nifty may do a reverse of yesterday's action.. "5189" is weekly ema and "Bears" may want to keep it below it and the more aggressive they are, they will aim for a close below 5155. I will be watching the dollar index to show the way..
Tech. Table sums up the critical range and the likely targets on either side. Very short term: Weak below 5176 & strenth above 5193. Short term: Weak below 5120 to a target of 4950.. Strength above 5200 to 5240/5270.
Such short ranges can result in all kinds of corrective moves ... so trade light. I could argue both "Bulls & Bears" cases convincingly and that leaves the trader in a limbo.. Some you trade with TA...some with your intuition..or like my critic did..write a CE and relax.
After the first fall from 5400 to 5160, Nifty was able to trade above the short term averages briefly but the selling took over immediately and the present attempt has consumed 3 days and it is still below them all. The sooner they climb above them will make it sustainable or the "OB" may soon take over to press them down again. "5100" has clearly looks the support now and "5175, 5200,5220 and 5250" are the resistances.
At 2.00PM: Hour High ema has been scaled...that is some momentum if the same is maintained in the remaining two hours. Closing above "Day High ema" would be extra bullish. A minimum close above 5140 is required to carry that Long..carry that long for a long time....(Remembered Beatles)
Another "multiple possibility" scenario...warranting light trading. My critic has sold 5000CE on Monday suggesting that "Macd" in negative & below the trigger would not give any strength to the market and selling @ higher levels might continue. Besides last pivot high in daily time frame "5295"(or 5342) is yet to be scaled.He pointed out the "line chart" and said the upmove on Monday is a 4th wave and the 5th down is on. Aar vee's and Mynac analysis too point to "heavy volumes @ 5090 and 5245". As I write this "Asian markets" are coming off their highs suggesting another round of correction towards 5090-5080 failing which it will continue down. Yesterday's VAL (5168) has become today's VAH. A trade below 5128(VAL for the day) would be an early indication to SELL.
"5225" - 20 sma would be an immediate resistance and day's pivot @ 5168(VAL) & 5184(POC) are the likely supports. A sharp reversal in US $ index could give a corrections to the equity markets. Trade your Longs and average them as long as 5080 holds. Sharp upmove of 230+ points may call for some sideways or a corrective move...If this upmove is start of a last upmove, it could have speculative characteristics and euphoria may start to develop... Holding above 5100 presently, keeps this reversal intact. ************************************************************* @ Warlockar - As per EW, a small long was to have been initiated below 5037, an indication of a 5-waves down from 5295.. Many booked profits and some initiated Longs. A pull back would give an opportunity to enter longs during an "abc" correction to this upmove.. Pattern followers should have noticed a sharp "falling wedge" forewarning a sharp reversal. @ Krishnendu - As the low of 5202 has been breached yesterday, there is no 4th wave possibility. However, if the fall happens as an "abc-x-abc"(5400-5160-5342-4987- X wave on - another abc decline) form, then this upmove may also unfold as an "abc"(X wave) and another downmove may follow after few days. Follow up price action will hold the clues. @ Sanjay - Would you please check your NF MP values. I find Amit's values to be more coinciding with the TA. May be "Viren" could confirm it.
Viren, you are right about the "MP values" accuracy in preempting the TA based observation of "waiting for the 200 sma"...It has done so earlier too as you have rightly pointed out. Nifty continues to do "ABC" corrections and "looking for 5 waves down" is "not following the market"... Both the earlier lows of 5160 & 5202 have been breached leaving no room for any doubts about this reversal. 21-Hour High got breached at 12.00 Noon giving an early "Long entry" to be confirmed by a 5-Day High breach above 5251.
I am posting an analysis for Positional play for the month of May along with a Chart & Volume profile to simplify the observations.
The Fibonacci retrace levels for the upmove from 4675 to 5399, along with Moving Averages 20,50 ema,200dma and the Channel bottom Trendline support will define the movement for Positional play.They should be kept in mind as supports and resistances.
Nifty can get support near 200dema and the 61.8% fibo. Level of 4950-60.Short term down move can end near this level of 4950-60.
If Nifty retraces back from this support ,it can meet a significant resistance at5125-5150 levels .This level is 38.2% retrace level of the upmove , a recent gap area (see vol.profile),likely area of 20 & 50 dema aligning themselves there next week and a possible 50 % retrace area of current downmove (from 5342) if it ends near to 4950.A new down move can start from this level of 5125-5150.
The positional SAR remains 5250 level which is the April month settlement price(5254) also it is importantly the Highest Volume area in Weekly Volume Profile.Only a close above this level will change the series dynamics to bullish.
My personal bias remains bearish with Wishful thinking of Nifty trading below 200 dma ,nearer to the Channel support Trendline area of 4800 levels sometime during May series settlement or early next month.
A Picture is worth thousand words ,this picture (Nifty chart) may be worth some hundred thousands rupees so cautiously make it serve the needful.
When I made a post on a Mother's story two weeks ago, I had just come back from seeing my mother and I was worried nothing should happen to her like it did in the story.
But my worst fears came true when my brother called me up to say that mother has been admitted to the hospital and I cursed myself for putting that post. Then I told myself that I do not believe in such coincidences and enquired about her status and to my relief he said it is only a mild attack and she would get discharged in a few days time.
She is back at home now. She is advised to talk less but all her life she has been talking to her ten children and I don't think she will stop now.
She is the most beautiful mother..the one kind I recommend strongly for any one ..She is full of "unconditional love" and she never judged us at any time and that gave us strength to face anything in the world and we grew up to be more independent. She would get up at 4.30 AM to start her work and would go to bed after 11.30PM or later depending on my father's arrival in those days. She would be doing something or the other but now her movements are restricted with age. She would sit with all of us to make us study but she never forced any of us. She used to sit & write few of our home works (those days they are not particular who wrote the home work) and she never refused anything to us. And we all scored very high with distinctions.
When our father lost everything in a tricky family partition, she did not complain and when she had to raise the ten children all alone after his demise too, we never saw her losing hope at any time. Just her presence held us together. She truly acted as a guardian angel to all of us. Just thinking about her makes my day....She has given me the most important gift to share and she has made that my second nature..Love, strength, confidence.
People write about "Power of Now" now but we have been living with one for so many years. The way she accepts life, surrendering to it and working with whatever comes her way with out a tinge of a complaint with such practicality should be a "case study" for any worthy corporation or management school. She does not go to temples much as for her work is worship.
On this Mother's Day, It feels nice to talk about her .
I grew up with these songs that brings her more closer every time I hear it.
A small story to remind us of the preciousness to be closer to Mother:
A man stopped at a flower shop to order some flowers to be wired to his mother who lived two hundred miles away.
As he got out of his car he noticed a young girl sitting on the curb sobbing.
He asked her what was wrong and she replied, "I wanted to buy a red rose for my mother.
But I only have seventy-five cents, and a rose costs two dollars."
The man smiled and said, "Come on in with me. I'll buy you a rose."
He bought the little girl her rose and ordered his own mother's flowers.
As they were leaving he offered the girl a ride home.
She said, "Yes, please! You can take me to my mother."
She directed him to a cemetery, where she placed the rose on a freshly dug grave.
The man returned to the flower shop, canceled the wire order, picked up a bouquet and drove the two hundred miles to his mother's house.
