- The Fibonacci retrace levels for the upmove from 4675 to 5399, along with Moving Averages 20,50 ema,200dma and the Channel bottom Trendline support will define the movement for Positional play.They should be kept in mind as supports and resistances.
- Nifty can get support near 200dema and the 61.8% fibo. Level of 4950-60.Short term down move can end near this level of 4950-60.
- If Nifty retraces back from this support ,it can meet a significant resistance at 5125-5150 levels .This level is 38.2% retrace level of the upmove , a recent gap area (see vol.profile),likely area of 20 & 50 dema aligning themselves there next week and a possible 50 % retrace area of current downmove (from 5342) if it ends near to 4950.A new down move can start from this level of 5125-5150.
- The positional SAR remains 5250 level which is the April month settlement price(5254) also it is importantly the Highest Volume area in Weekly Volume Profile.Only a close above this level will change the series dynamics to bullish.
- My personal bias remains bearish with Wishful thinking of Nifty trading below 200 dma ,nearer to the Channel support Trendline area of 4800 levels sometime during May series settlement or early next month.
- A Picture is worth thousand words ,this picture (Nifty chart) may be worth some hundred thousands rupees so cautiously make it serve the needful.
With warm regards,