Saturday, April 24, 2010
"I know you love her," she said one day, taking me by surprise.
"But I love YOU!" I protested.
"I know, but you also love her."
The other woman my wife wanted me to visit was my mother, who has been a widow for 39 years. The demands of my work and my two children had made it possible to visit her only occasionally. That night, I called to invite her to go out for dinner and a movie.
"What's wrong, are you well," she asked? My mother is the type of woman who suspects that a late night call or a surprise invitation is a sign of bad news.
"I thought it would be pleasant to pass some time with you," I responded. "Just the two of us."
She thought about it for a moment, then said, "I would like that very much."
Friday, April 23, 2010
1. Short term trend continues to be up inspite of yesterday's intra sell off as Nifty stays above 5ema/sma & stochastics too trending up. Hence, it is presumed that the "B" wave is still unfolding as shown in the chart.(Will be confirmed when 5342 is crossed).
2.I have also marked an alternative "B" ending at yesterday's peak and market may retrace part of the fall upto 5295-5315 & may resume the correction.
I have also marked in two "circles", a likely repeat of the correction but with higher volatility. The smaller circle had 5220 to 5260(40 points) while this one may have 5250 to 5330(80 pts).
In the larger EW possibility, I have two possibilities:
1. Nifty has done the 4th wave @ 5165 and is in its 5th wave (Stocks such as Tata motors, banks are doing it)
2. Nifty has completed a 5-waves @ 5400 and correcting the entire upmove from 4675 to 5400 in an "ABC" correction wherein the "A" is done @ 5165 and the "B" wave is on (Or done @ 5340..??) and after completing the "B", the "C" wave will unfold targeting 5090 or 4960 which will provide a good "Buying opportunity". (However, we'll reserve that decision looking at the TA positioning as well as other internals at that time).
The S&R @ 5258 suggested yesterday may be reversed as it has not affected the TA set up yet.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Sundar has given day's range as 5190 to 5300. (A likely one of them hitting closer)
Manoj (Tryin2Trade) has given 5180 to 5280 as "Bull-Bear" boundary.
Aarvee has given 5230-5250 as the struggle point.
So intraday traders could go long @ 5200-5215 with SL 5190... (ORB may confirm it)
Go Short @ 5238(VAL)-5249(POC) depending on which they get first..
Daily Channel bottom is @ 5200.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
The three possibilities discussed in the "Premarket View" still are at work. Prices have attempted & touched the 5-sma.(Bank Nifty touched the 10-sma).
Staying above Low ema(becomes the pivot for tomorrow), it could attempt 5293( weekly pivot)..
Any fall below 5200 may drag it lower..
1. A simple "iv" can move upto 5265-5295.
2. A "B" wave correction may take it to 5305-5335.
3. A "5th" wave can either be a truncated(5335-5350) or make an equal length of 1st wave (4675-4930=255) targeting 5415 (5160+255=5415).
Weekly trend remains up and the daily is at "Oversold" levels. There was positive divergence in 5 minute time frame when Nifty touched 5160.
Holding 5180-5200 levels, with + ve world cues, a move to 5238-5245 initially and after a pull back, it may move higher to 5265+.
As mentioned last week...5293(weekly pivot)..will be the inflection point.
Inspite of +ve world cues, if Nifty moves below 5200 and trade below today's pivot(5194), it could make a low around 5150-5140 and if that results in +ve div in hour chart, that could provide with a divergence long trade. So watch resistances @ 5238+
Monday, April 19, 2010
23.6%=5228 .; 38%=5123 .; 50%=5037 .; 61.82%=4951.
Having seen consistent FII inflows till Friday, it is likely to be a retracement between 5228 to 5123. FII flows need to be watched for further clues.
Sunday, April 18, 2010
As "RV" has done it here with Nifty T.A file, go through "Rajagopal's TA and Sundar's T.A" files to sharpen your trading plan. Let their hard work help you in your success...Pose all your "interpreting queries" to them.
Last Week Followup by "Rajeev verma (RV):-
Nifty was expected to move in a tight range of 5330-5450 by me,but it flattered to deceive and broke the lower range to close below 5330 on Tuesday,13/04(c.p.-5322).The reason that I understand is the onset of a Truncated Wave Count completion as per EW study at 5399.(It was mentioned by Sir in the blog too). It is first down week after nine continous up weeks.The weekly high was 5382 and low was 5237.
Few important observations are-
1.There was a close below 5330 early in the week.
2.Last two closing prices were below Daily low ema.
3.Broken the short term uptrend line with the last close.
4.Prices trading below last month derivatives settlement price of 5260 on the last trading day.
Weekly analysis for 19/4 to 23/4-
(This analysis is based on Sir’s Tech Table having 5ema values,Pivot points,Basic Indicators & study of secondary indicators as Index Option Open interest)
1.The Basic Weekly Indicators- as Fast Stochs(5,3), Slow Stochs(5,3) &(14,3), RSI(14) are in sell mode correcting from O/B region with MACD(26,12,9) flat.(Bearish weekly TA)
2.The Basic Daily Indicators -as Slow Stochs(14,3), RSI(14), MACD(26,12,9) are in sell mode correcting from O/B region with Fast stochs(5,3)and Slow stochs(14,3) reaching O/S region.(Selling may continue further with a technical bounce due to O/S position of f.stoch)
3.ADX(9),-The Trend indicator, shows –DI moving upwards from below and +DI moving down with ADX line moving up showing start of a Downtrend.
4.Bollinger Bands- Range is 5190-5390,(the lower levels in combination with f.stochs can give a bounce from +/- this region).
5.Chart pattern-Last close has been below the uptrend line supporting Nifty since 4675 (short term weakness in uptrend.)
6.As per Ema system -Last closing price(5262) is below 5dema low(5276), 20dema(5268),Weekly Pivot(5293) and near Weekly Close ema(5259).It is first weekly close below Weekly High ema(5320) in this month,suggesting Downtrend to continue further.
7.Options open interest -has shown since the start of April series, Max. built up in 5200 Puts and 5400 Calls.The position remains the same this week too but the change in quantity suggests otherwise.5200 Puts that were approx. 98 lac at start of this week were reduced to approx.89lac where as 5400 Calls that were approx. 71 lac increased to apprx. 87 lac.,at the close of the week..Unwinding of Puts and Writing of Calls clearly suggests Monthly trend change, with smart money bias towards short term downtrend now.
1.Daily rallies to Weekly high ema(5320) should be sold into and support levels are near Weekly low ema(5196) , B.B. lower level(5190), Previous 52w high(5180),50dema(5168),Weekly pivot S2 (5152) So, Immediate Support area is in the region 5150-5190.
2. The above downtrend will end only on a close above Week high ema(5320) and important level of 5330 .(This may start an extended wave count above 5400)
1.No new long positions should be formed positionally till a close above 5330.
2.Daily rallies towards 5260-5320 should be utilized by longs to get out and create new shorts with proper s/l .
3.No averaging of long positions on downside should be made as it can increase the losses if the primary support area gives way to further downside.
4.5260 level is last months series settlement price and interestingly this Week’s close ema.This level should decide the fate of this week.5260 should be kept as SAR for trading this week.
Personal observations(other than TA)-
1.The truncated wave completion has begun the onset of correction earlier ,as last weekend I was expecting it to complete extended wave count upto 5450 and then correct from coming week onwards.
“The markets will do what they have to do but will do it when u least expect it.”
2. I personally am biased (since last weekend) that the above support area will give way this weekend/next week to next support region at 5090 (100dma) & Monthly close ema (5100) and importantly if there is no closing above 5330 this week,I stand by my last weekend analysis of this series being settled nearer/below 5000.
“Price signals must be given priority above any forecasts and indicators”
3.I have an observation regarding any derivative series in general,In a trending market if any time during the month the prices trades and importantly close below the settlement price of last series ,it marks the trend change for that month (same is the reverse case too).
Logically now below 5260(settlement price of March series), the longs rolled over from last series and new created in this series (with Nifty trading above 5300 on 12days of the 14 trading days of the series,there are ample of them,) get trapped and they will wish to get out above 5260 levels every time there is a rally.Importantly the series rollover was in a trading range of 5205-5285 in the last week of March,so ideally a close below 5200 should open the flood gates below.
I was expecting this phenomenon to happen next weekend but looks like the truncated wave did the trick earlier.On a lighter note like the ‘truncated’ wave ,’heat’ wave has also arrived early ,it will be prudent to wear ‘shorts’ this summer till indicated otherwise.
My answer: "Rajeev Verma" has shown how to interpret the Tech. table , Tech. File as well as OI data. Write down your plans everyday in a simple way, check its efficiency at the end of the day and make the necessary changes and you will be able to guide fellow readers soon.
Major help may be derived from "price congestions" that has acted as supports and resistances earlier and combining them with TA positioning as well as EW.
1. I had once earlier written to you and I fully understand your pre-occupation would have left little time to respond.
2. I follow your site like a religion but I have few things to share, like a student complaining to his teacher, eager to learn more.
3. I am increasingly getting an uneasy feeling that at times when I have taken trade as per your prompt, I seem to have lost money. Let me give example of trade taken by me as per yr posts
a. entered long Suzlon for target around 80, now in loss
b. entered short Tata Motors 729 target 670, now in loss
c. entered short Infosys at 2860, in loss
d. entered short nifty 5150 (last break-out), still holding in loss.
4. I probably am failing to comprehend the flow of guidance by you or i seem to be missing key advice.
5. I do need your guidance, please.
My Answer: Study "Technical Analysis" write ups in the "Labels" section as well as the 8 steps under "Always start trading with these". Once you feel confident about these, you will be ready to trade.
This rather old fashioned expression "many a slip between the cup and the lip" means don't be too sure that your plan is going to work because anything can go wrong at anytime. I only give you the prompt as part of "understanding the TA" , applied TA. Revise your SL, part book and above all have an "expiry date & time " for your trades. I do not give calls but share my thoughts based on the TA at "that time". Markets, being dynamic , the changes need to be incorporated in your trades which is called "Managing your positions", to be done responsibly by you...and you alone.
Feeling sorry for your losses, either by me, others or yourself, is not going to do you any good. Only a proper studying of TA, making a plan based on that, executing the same at the planned level, managing your positions based on the "plan parameters" can bring you consistent profits inspite of a few "stopped out losses".
Look ahead..Go towards light with confidence..Believe in your heart..."Money making is a child's play".