Saturday, April 10, 2010
Over the months he tried and tried while I listened and cringed and tried to encourage him. At the end of each weekly lesson he'd always say, "My mom's going to hear me play someday." But it seemed hopeless. He just did not have any inborn ability. I only knew his mother from a distance as she dropped Robby off or waited in her aged car to pick him up. She always waved and smiled but never stopped in.
Then one day Robby stopped coming to our lessons. I thought about calling him but assumed, because of his lack of ability, that he had decided to pursue something else. I also was glad that he stopped coming. He was a bad advertisement for my teaching!
Friday, April 9, 2010
It is the same at "Stock wealth" too.
As Nifty fell from 5400 to 5290 in a 3 wave pattern, the correction will not be a zigzag one. It could be either a triangle or a flat correction. In such a case 70% + retracements are possible...
Sell in the area of 5367 to 5385.
Asian mkts are coming off the highs and some are in the negative.
An earlier peak @ 5260 or Month high ema-5241(S2) are possible too.
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
The rising channel may be drawn in a different way to. Accordingly, holding above 5285(Weekly pivot), Nifty may attempt to move higher towards 5 sma/ VAH(5341) or 5 day High ema+ but the climb gets steeper and difficult to keep up unless some consolidation takes place towards the channel bottom.
One could book profits on the shorts @ POC(5301) and go long and sell higher as Nifty is in a corrective mode till a weekly sell is generated.
Thursday, April 8, 2010
"5330+" & 5355 will act as a resistance and a break of this channel will lead to 5235/ 5194.
Tech. Table has given a convincing reversal for the short term (Day-Time cycle). Note how Nifty came closer to weekly High ema.*(5291)
Low ema is likely to be around 5315.
High ema likely @ 5368(if Nifty high @ 5375)coincides with VAL @ 5368.
I have observed quite many negative divergences in the hourly charts of stocks and some stocks may buck todays trend and bounce from oversold levels (Infy, Maruti, Tata motors).
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Nifty yet to close below short term averages...corrections have been mostly intra.
No damage done to this table yet.
Let me state this to you.
Monthly TA is neutral and on the verge of turning up again.
Weekly TA is in uptrend, though a bit Overbought.
Daily TA has shown its tendency to stay UP with shallow corrections and it has not closed below "Day low ema" for more than 30-35 days.
Using oscillators to trade works well in a sideways market like I have shown with 9-rsi chart in yesterday's EOD post. In a trending market, you use them to spot divergences alone. Even the divergences do not give much gains if it is in a "3rd wave".
There were many +ve divergences in stocks and I posted nearly 14 stocks in my "Stockwealth" blog and all of them have given quite a lot of returns in short term. Evren the -ve divergence stocks such as Infosys, India cement have fallen.
It is not difficult to spot these divergences. But view the overall market and when you see many such divergences, then your confidence and conviction levels will be high to take a trade in them.
With regard to the chart(Shown below) that you have put up, a divergence that takes 6 months & more may be viewed as a running correction or a 3rd wave in progress. Since that is a day chart, I would prefer a divergence that takes 10 to 15 days to develop (+/-5) for trading purposes and anything more than that loses its relevance..
I hope this clear your doubts. More exposure to the market alone can guide us better as markets keep evolving and we need to learn constantly.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
The range for 6th April based on VIX calculation - 5325 to 5414.
Monday, April 5, 2010
Rajeev Verma's Observations:-(aarvee9)
STOCHS(14,3) : OverBought,just below 80 mark.
STOCHS(5,3) : Falling after negative diversion ,near to 50 mark.
RSI(14) &RSI(9): Both falling from OB region after negative diversions.
MACD(26,12,9): In OB region ,Histogram already near zero mark.
EMA : All the EMA’s 5,20,50 are bullishly aligned,with close above all.
PSAR : 5325
ATR(14) : Approx.63
VIX : approx 17
CHART PATTERN: Channel trading broken in last two trading days.
STOCHS are in OB region and RSI falling but MACD and Momentum giving bullish signals.EMA’s are bullishly aligned,with close 5,13,20 w ema.
The Pattern is of Channel movement with trading in upper half of the channel.
(c)Options Data shows maximum Open Interest in 5200 Puts and 5400Calls and a neutral put/call ratio of 1.19.
The much awaited correction is not happening, both Daily and Weekly giving mixed signals.So,we should be cautiously Long with theTrend with strict Stoplosses at 5235(2day low)or 5185(10 day low and approx 20ema) as per our risk profile.If the stop loss of 5235 is not hit ,then can go upto 5450 which is the Weekly Channel Top resistance.Closing above 5330(recent trading high) will be the deciding factor.The range can be 5200 to 5400 with low volatility and daily ranges.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
The 3 points below talk about using ema and oscillators over various time cycles to get in and out. I am not able to understand and apply it. I would be very grateful if you could explain them with illustrations:-
1. If I wait for a daily buy signal, I miss 200 points from the bottom before the trend turns up. And after the trend turns up , market pulls back as a correction before rallying further and you may end up holding at higher levels for a brief period of time. So we look for the hourly trend to take position but this should be done only when the daily is in oversold status.
2. Similarly when the hourly is in oversold status, look at 5 minute to give you a buy signal for a possible reversal in hourly.On the fateful 27th Oct, Nifty's low of 2253 was accompanied by an excellent +ve divergence which helped to take a buy call even before the hourly buy signal.
3. Always give more weightage to the higher time cycle and play the lower time cycle till a "overbought or Oversold" situation arises in the higher time cycle when one should approach with caution but continue in the same direction.
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I have given here a combination of "Hour" & "5-Minute" time cycle to spot entry as well as reversal points..
A. Once Nifty has made 4675 & 4835 lows, a channel will be in place and the trend is in force till the channel holds. We have had our entry @ 4675 when a larger +ve div showed itself. We also re-entered at the conclusion of correction prior to the budget day @ 4835.
Here, in the "hourly" chart, you spot a divergence developing with macd oscillator at the "Oversold as well as the Overbought" zones. At such junctions, go one level below this time cycle to "5-minute" to spot a well formed divergence.
This Hourly table shows you the exact time of entry in Hourly time scale and compare it with "5-Minute table", you get a better entry & exit.
After observing the "Oversold & Overbought" status in "Hour time cycle", look out for a "positive or Negative Divergence" for a good entry price in "5-Minute time cycle" as shown below which is well formed. Though a negative divergence is developing in the 5-Minute presently, Nifty has managed to stay above all emas(All time cycles) and it need to be followed up on Monday....
This "5-Minute table" shows you the exact time of entry in 5-minute time scale and compare it with "Hourly table", you find here a better entry & exit.
This above concept may be applied for positional traders by combining "Day & Hour" and Medium term investors by combining "Week & Day" and Long term investors by combining "Month & week".