- The Stochs,both 5,3 and14,3 are in OB region from quite some time,with no negative diversion.(Bullish/OB)
- RSI 14 has been in OB region for some time.and RSI 9 since the Budget day.with no negative diversion(Bullish/OB)
- MACD 26,12 , moving averages and signal lines are bullishly aligned but MACD histogram is falling/flat since Nifty crossed 5100.(Bullish with weakness)
- 5EMA system is closing above Close 5 day Ema continuously since start of the month(15 trading sessions in line& that too above High 5 Ema)and above 5 Week Close ema since last 4 weeks.(Bullish)
- Last 3 day chart shows Negative Diversion in all Stochs,RSI,MACD.(short term Bearish,may be intraday on Monday)
- A/D line w.r.t Nifty prices is showing Negative Diversion,especially after move above 5100.McCelellen indicator also shows the same as posted by Sir on Friday.(Bearish)
- VIX is at its lowest, whole of march has seen average VIX of 20 and since last three days even lower to approx 17.VIX is a contrarian indicator.It is said,”If VIX is HIGH,its time to BUY and if VIX is LOW ,its time to GO”(Bearish)
- Volumes on the Upmove since 4675 are on the lower side as compared to the Downmove of 5310-4675.(Bearish)
- ATR 14 from start of March has reduced from approx.82 to approx.63.(Bearish/
- Chart Pattern of the Upmove is in the form of a Rising Wedge which has its supports at approx.5220(Bearish)
- Derivatives front shows that-
-Put/Call ratio of 1.68(Bullish),
-Low IV’s in Options(Bullish),
-Last week rollover of Nifty Futures to April series is healthy 45 lac with total O.I. in next series at approx 69 lacs(Bullish,as rollover on longer side)
-The Call and Put O.I. movement shows that smart money is hedged for a downmove of 5170 and to upmove of 5320.Movements in O.I. of 5100 and 5200 Calls and 5400 Puts shows a balance at 5270 .
- PSAR of this Upmove is approx. at 5170.
-Remember that Markets can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent,so don’t fight the tape and make the Trend your Friend. Sit tight with Longs till Indicators along with Price levels do not give Reversal. Hedge Yourselves as smart money is doing .
-The Most Important Level this week is 5220, it is the Close 5Dema, apprx Weekly Pivot, the Rising Wedge pattern support and Monday’s daily S2 .
-Any move below 5170 and above 5270 can give 100 points.
( Just a hunch that it may take a News to break the range, RBI’s rate change,may be not,Obama’s Health care ,may be yes)