Saturday, March 27, 2010
Warmth was slowly being restored to my hands and feet as I settled onto one of the public benches with a gleaming cup of coffee. Now I was ready to relax and do some serious people-watching. I noticed a homeless man seated nearby and several tables of diners spilling out into the great hall from the upscale America Restaurant. Heavenly aromas from gourmet treats were tempting me to consider an early dinner. From the longing look in my neighbor's eye it was obvious that he, too, had not failed to notice the banquet taking place around us. I wondered how long it had been since he had eaten anything. Expecting he would approach me for a handout, I welcomed such a plea on his part. He never did. The more I took in this scene, the crueler his plight seemed. My head and heart were battling it out: the former telling me to mind my own business, and the latter urging me to make an immediate trip to the food court on his behalf.
While this internal debate was raging, a well-dressed young couple suddenly approached. "Excuse me, sir," began the husband. "My wife and I just finished eating and our appetite wasn't as big as we thought. We hate to waste good food. Can you help us out and put this to good use?" The kind stranger handed a large styrofoam container overflowing with goodies. "God bless you both. Have a good day," came the grateful reply. Feeling good about what I had seen, but dismayed by my own lack of action, I observed my neighbor's response to his sudden good fortune. First he scrutinized his new found bounty, arranging the soup crackers, inspecting the club sandwich and stirring the salad dressing. Then he slowly lifted the lid off the soup, inhaling the aroma and cupping his hands around the steaming bowl. It was obvious that he was going to prolong the enjoyment of this miracle meal. Finally, he appeared ready for that long-dreamed-of first taste. Meticulously unwrapping the plastic spoon, he filled it to overflowing, lifted it towards his mouth and — with a suddenness that stunned me - stopped dead in his tracks.
Friday, March 26, 2010
Unlike the weekly chart, Nifty is trading here in the "upper portion" of the channel. A break below 5230 may drag it further down. Channel resistance comes @ 5340...Will it go that far..?/
The micro.."Hour" shows a possibility of another high before the drop begins..
Thursday, March 25, 2010
I remember initiating a "minor sell" @ 5135 10 days ago for a target of 5035 but Nifty did a shallow correction till 5090 and moved higher. In a similar fashion, another "mild sell" was initiated @ 5257 for a target of 5150 or 5100 but Nifty seems to be basing 5190-5205 as a new support.
Though the daily continues to be in the "OB" area, hourly time correction done with a shallow trading and the "14-Rsi" gave an indication of the impending move higher and Nifty followed it up accordingly.
And finally, by closing above 5240, Nifty gets its momentum back for higher levels.
World markets have been moving higher quite steeply for 30 days now, typical of a terminal burst. AD chart is yet to develop a broader negative divergence for caution.
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
"Rama, the ancient idol of the heroic ages, the embodiment of truth, of morality, the ideal son, the ideal husband, and above all, the ideal king, this Rama has been presented before us by the great sage Valmiki. No language can be purer, none chaster, none more beautiful, and at the same time simpler, than the language in which the great poet has depicted the life of Rama."
-- Swami Vivekananda
You must have heard that Jesus walked on water to save the drowning Peter, his disciple. There are many accounts in India of persons who walked over water in this way, due to their tremendous faith. This story is about a farmer's daughter whose duty it was to carry fresh milk to customers in various villages. One of the customers was a priest. To reach his house, the milkmaid had to cross a good-sized stream. People crossed it by a sort of ferry raft, for a small fee.
One day the priest, who performed worship daily with the offering to God of fresh milk, finding it arrived very late, scolded the poor woman. "What can I do?" she said, "I start out early from my house, but I have to wait a long time for the boatman to come." Then the priest said (pretending to be serious), "What! People have even walked across the ocean by repeating the name of God, and you can't cross this little river?" This milkmaid took him very seriously. From then on she brought the priest's milk punctually every morning. He became curious about it and asked her how it was that she was never late anymore.
"I cross the river repeating the name of the Lord," she replied, "just as you told me to do, without waiting for the ferry." The priest didn't believe her, and asked, "Can you show me this, how you cross the river on foot?" So they went together to the water and the milkmaid began to walk over it. Looking back, the woman saw that the priest had started to follow her and was floundering in the water. "Sir!" she cried, "You are uttering the name of God, yet all the while you are holding up your clothes from getting wet. That is not trusting in God!"
Power of faith!
Ravana, king of the demons, had an older brother who was a truly spiritual man, very unlike the rest of his family. Others came to him as a holy man; they knew his great devotion to Rama, whom he looked on as God in human form. One disciple of this older brother wanted very badly to go from Sri Lanka, where he lived, to India, to see Lord Rama. There were no boats to take in those days. When he explained his great longing to his teacher, the latter went aside, and taking a large leaf, wrote upon it the name of Lord Rama, wrapped it and told the disciple. "Don't be afraid. Keep this in your pocket. The power of this alone will carry you across on foot. But look here: the moment you lose your faith in it, you will be drowned."
The man set out and he was walking easily on the water on his way to India, when suddenly he became curious.
"What could this be, so powerful to work this miracle?" And pulling the packet from his pocket he opened it. "What?! Just this -- a leaf with the name of the Lord?" And as doubt crossed his mind he began to sink.
The story doesn't say so, but Rama Himself must have come to him and lifted His devotee from perishing. We can hope so!
The same book tells about Hanuman, the monkey-devotee and the way he too crossed from India to Sri Lanka. King Rama and all his armies and followers were laboring to build a bridge over the strait. But Hanuman said, "What, I have taken the name of Rama -- then is there anything I cannot do?" He had such total faith in the power of his Master's name, that in one big jump he cleared the many miles of water, from the tip of India to the island.
These three tales used to be told by Sri Ramakrishna and Swami Vivekananda. Having faith in oneself, faith in the teacher, faith in the words of scripture, and faith in God, they said, we must succeed.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Monday, March 22, 2010
For the immediate trading with "hour time cycle" 5140-5155 as a support & 5225 - 5240 as a resistance zone. Indicator such as the one below-14Hour Rsi may not show an exact bottom or top but "indicate" a likely arrest of a down move or an up move. Once a trend is established, their utility is limited to "divergences" only and don't rely on them for "OS or OB".
Should we hazard a guess of a likely trading range for tomorrow @ S1(5180) & R1(5240)..?
The more "Still" you are, the more "Clarity" you get into market insight. One day success or one day failure should never affect you. What happened today is "history". Just follow that price..nothing else matters. Make your plan. As I have mentioned earlier, Keep the likely numbers for you ready with you..then the trend & its time cycle..the intra charts and wait patiently to initiate some excellent trades as it happened today..the low ema..
Manojag confirmed it by stating it as "5191"....for a long trade ..so did many stocks.
Viren then put in his VAL @ 5257 to initiate a "Short sell" which we missed on Friday being in clear uptrend on that day though in its 5th of the 5th.."Manojag" followed it well.
I still feel, if we can follow a simple TA model, then use other facts such as OI, astro, EW, indicators, etc as "Confirmatory factors", we will do well in the long run.
As a modern day warrior has a variety of arsenal, there are many such "Strategies" to be played out at different junctions of market action. Keep them handy to put to use. market tests our patience...there is always 1 or 3 days of delay after you sense a reversal..At such times, stay light to have some sanity. An empty space in your head which does not have opinions will attract the market sense automatically and you will be guided well.. But please...Stay still..
Sunday, March 21, 2010
- The Stochs,both 5,3 and14,3 are in OB region from quite some time,with no negative diversion.(Bullish/OB)
- RSI 14 has been in OB region for some time.and RSI 9 since the Budget day.with no negative diversion(Bullish/OB)
- MACD 26,12 , moving averages and signal lines are bullishly aligned but MACD histogram is falling/flat since Nifty crossed 5100.(Bullish with weakness)
- 5EMA system is closing above Close 5 day Ema continuously since start of the month(15 trading sessions in line& that too above High 5 Ema)and above 5 Week Close ema since last 4 weeks.(Bullish)
- Last 3 day chart shows Negative Diversion in all Stochs,RSI,MACD.(short term Bearish,may be intraday on Monday)
- A/D line w.r.t Nifty prices is showing Negative Diversion,especially after move above 5100.McCelellen indicator also shows the same as posted by Sir on Friday.(Bearish)
- VIX is at its lowest, whole of march has seen average VIX of 20 and since last three days even lower to approx 17.VIX is a contrarian indicator.It is said,”If VIX is HIGH,its time to BUY and if VIX is LOW ,its time to GO”(Bearish)
- Volumes on the Upmove since 4675 are on the lower side as compared to the Downmove of 5310-4675.(Bearish)
- ATR 14 from start of March has reduced from approx.82 to approx.63.(Bearish/
- Chart Pattern of the Upmove is in the form of a Rising Wedge which has its supports at approx.5220(Bearish)
- Derivatives front shows that-
-Put/Call ratio of 1.68(Bullish),
-Low IV’s in Options(Bullish),
-Last week rollover of Nifty Futures to April series is healthy 45 lac with total O.I. in next series at approx 69 lacs(Bullish,as rollover on longer side)
-The Call and Put O.I. movement shows that smart money is hedged for a downmove of 5170 and to upmove of 5320.Movements in O.I. of 5100 and 5200 Calls and 5400 Puts shows a balance at 5270 .
- PSAR of this Upmove is approx. at 5170.
-Remember that Markets can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent,so don’t fight the tape and make the Trend your Friend. Sit tight with Longs till Indicators along with Price levels do not give Reversal. Hedge Yourselves as smart money is doing .
-The Most Important Level this week is 5220, it is the Close 5Dema, apprx Weekly Pivot, the Rising Wedge pattern support and Monday’s daily S2 .
-Any move below 5170 and above 5270 can give 100 points.
( Just a hunch that it may take a News to break the range, RBI’s rate change,may be not,Obama’s Health care ,may be yes)
1. Simple correction (Zig-Zag)
2. Complex corrections (Flat, Irregular, Triangle)
In this type of correction, Wave B makes a new high. The final Wave C may drop to the beginning of Wave A, or below it.
A Zig-Zag correction is a three-wave pattern where the Wave B does not retrace more than 75 percent of Wave A. Wave C will make new lows below the end of Wave A. The Wave A of a Zig-Zag correction always has a five-wave pattern. If you can identify a five-wave pattern inside Wave A of any correction, you can then expect the correction to turn out as a Zig-Zag formation.
In a Flat correction, the length of each wave is identical. After a five-wave impulse pattern, the market drops in Wave A. It then rallies in a Wave B to the previous high. Finally, the market drops one last time in Wave C to the previous Wave A low.
In addition to the three-wave correction patterns, there is another pattern that appears time and time again. It is called the Triangle pattern. Unlike other triangle studies, the Elliott Wave Triangle approach designates five sub-waves of a triangle as A, B, C, D and E in sequence.
Identify these corrections at the "OB" & "OS" areas and have your strategy in action. Allowing the "A" wave to show itself will also get you some vital clues to the remaining part of the corrections.
Get rich slowly.
(Will post "aarvee's week end analysis by 10.00PM).