"Viren" has been contributing some amazing and precise decider points for trading called VAH, VAL and when combined with other studies, the clarity that emerges cut down on errors of judgements. I reproduce here his Introduction into Market profile. It is very simple and it is worth your while to spend time on it and add to your trading tools.
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Hello All,
It's nice to see the enthusiasm you have shown in understanding a new concept, which I must say may be a bit different from what you would have heard about the markets so far.
I have already sent out some pdf's to you, but I will again try to summarize in this mail the concept of Market profile and give you the info on operating the software required for this.
The Market Profile is a comprehensive way of organizing the trading day, taking into account price, volume, and time. Financial markets exist to facilitate an exchange between a buyer and
seller. But the markets, with their innumerable participants, seek to facilitate trade at the fairest price.
This fair price is what we call "value"
Markets establish an accepted value each and every trading day based on innumerable inputs: news, earnings reports, economiindicators, geopolitical events, politics, budgets and so on. As
these inputs change day after day, so too does the value of the market.The Market Profile theory holds that each trading day is connected to the next when it comes to determining value; therefore, we can learn a lot about the market today, in real time, by observing where it established value yesterday. This value comes in the form of a range of prices, from a low to high
in price. Today’s value is defined by where the market traded 70% of the volume yesterday. Specifically we define today’s value at the prices between which 70% of yesterday’s volume traded.The 70 % is a global constant and I have not known anybody to tinker with it.
What we’re left with is a low(VAL) and high price(VAH).
1. If the market is trading in between these prices, it’s accepting yesterday’s value and we can conclude that not much has changed between yesterday and today.
2. If it’s breaking out, then value is being established higher;
3. If it’s breaking down, then value is being established lower.
You might simply think of prices that define today’s value area as support and resistance.
If value moves higher, Buyers are coming in, so we advise buy above VAH. If value moves lower, Sellers are coming in, so we advise sell below VAL.
To track these changes daily, you need to download Quotetracker.
1. After you run the program, open it and save the proper NSE symbols in your portfolio.( All details on the website please read or send out an email to them for clarifications).
2. Next in data sources, choose " NSE Real Time".
3. Now when your symbols appear, open the intraday settings by a right click on the symbol.
4. Next, right click the chart and in "select indicators" choose 'Volume By price' in the upper indicator and 'Volume' in the Lower Indicator.
5. Give any colour of your choice, but the highlighted range is your value area, make sure it stands out.
Now you are ready to go... For Trouble shooting, download this QT Guide.
You will get 2 days of data for your unregistered version, which is enough to get you going.
Go through all your stocks now, and find which one traded above value, in value and below value.
Happy charting!!
Viren.
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Thank you, Viren.
Saturday, March 6, 2010
Friday, March 5, 2010
Nifty PreMarket View
In the present context, how to use the "Tech.table"..?
Monthly high ema(Changes as per the highs made in this month) @ 5083+ has been met with resistances.
Being in strong short term uptrend, it has been finding supports at the Hourly low ema (Rising too with higher lows each hour) @ 5063 -.
One could continue holding the longs as long as Nifty closes above the Day High ema(Aggressively) and closes above the Day Close ema(Conservatively).
There will be whipsaws along the way but overall "Success rate" is very satisfying.
One of the early "learnings" of mine in the stock market is to "Hold longs above 5 sma clos & Hold shorts below 5 sma close" and I was well rewarded on two big occasions.One by holding shorts before "Sitaram kesari(Congress) pulled the "Deve Gowda's" govt, and holding longs a day before the election results were out last year. More recently, before the budget day we held longs @ 4840(19.03.10) and the same long price was available one day before too.
Methods are many but what is required is "Steadfastness" to it. If God thought otherwise, He would have created all of us out of a "Single mould".
Having fun & making money with few methods but not too many to confuse us.
As Gautama Buddha would state, "Balance" is vital as in the "Stretching of the strings in a musical instrument". Even in that instrument only few strings combine to give you great music and you won't be able to handle if it were 100 strings.
I have 100's of acquaintances but just a handful of friends. Need I say anymore..!!!
This "90 minutes of football"(our life) game is on and there aren't many recesses, regroup yourself after every setback and play on as the game will not go to a "Pause" for your sake, score as many as you can and take it sportingly if you fail too and it is your game that matters not the next game where you may not be figured..
And play "passionately".
Monthly high ema(Changes as per the highs made in this month) @ 5083+ has been met with resistances.
Being in strong short term uptrend, it has been finding supports at the Hourly low ema (Rising too with higher lows each hour) @ 5063 -.
One could continue holding the longs as long as Nifty closes above the Day High ema(Aggressively) and closes above the Day Close ema(Conservatively).
There will be whipsaws along the way but overall "Success rate" is very satisfying.
One of the early "learnings" of mine in the stock market is to "Hold longs above 5 sma clos & Hold shorts below 5 sma close" and I was well rewarded on two big occasions.One by holding shorts before "Sitaram kesari(Congress) pulled the "Deve Gowda's" govt, and holding longs a day before the election results were out last year. More recently, before the budget day we held longs @ 4840(19.03.10) and the same long price was available one day before too.
Methods are many but what is required is "Steadfastness" to it. If God thought otherwise, He would have created all of us out of a "Single mould".
Having fun & making money with few methods but not too many to confuse us.
As Gautama Buddha would state, "Balance" is vital as in the "Stretching of the strings in a musical instrument". Even in that instrument only few strings combine to give you great music and you won't be able to handle if it were 100 strings.
I have 100's of acquaintances but just a handful of friends. Need I say anymore..!!!
This "90 minutes of football"(our life) game is on and there aren't many recesses, regroup yourself after every setback and play on as the game will not go to a "Pause" for your sake, score as many as you can and take it sportingly if you fail too and it is your game that matters not the next game where you may not be figured..
And play "passionately".
Thursday, March 4, 2010
Nifty Intraday update-II
Try finding the "Beauty" of a rose or even a relationship like "Mother's"
You will end up finding only pieces or acts that could be found anywhere.
I come from "Business family" and I know how to make money and don't bother about how it is done as long as it is ethical.
There are hundreds of Trading methods and I have short listed to a minimum to make it simple. And that beauty has become the envy and they want to "tear it apart".
Sometimes you just have to accept this simple fact and trade the market.
There is a difference between trading and investing and the misunderstandings arise out of this factor.
There are some blogs who devout themselves to criticise the methods used by marketmen everyday. That is destructive criticism and they will never stop.
Better would be to put your method to "real time market" testing and see the results and follow it.
Great things can be achieved by simple methods like the "daily acts of our mother" and she is no rocket scientist but she makes great human beings.
Nifty PreMarket View
Nifty is getting into highly "Overbought zone" in the hourly time frame.
This stretching will require some corrections which could come after an initial upmove and in a sideways fashion too.
Certain divergences that appear are part of a "third wave" which are ineffective and one should wait for more reliable negative divergences to appear. Until then, any selling that is done after initial rise should be covered for small gains only as rotational buying seem to be going on which will keep the index afloat.
Stay with the trend and the market rewards you well...
Happy trading.
This stretching will require some corrections which could come after an initial upmove and in a sideways fashion too.
Certain divergences that appear are part of a "third wave" which are ineffective and one should wait for more reliable negative divergences to appear. Until then, any selling that is done after initial rise should be covered for small gains only as rotational buying seem to be going on which will keep the index afloat.
Stay with the trend and the market rewards you well...
Happy trading.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Nifty heading into overhead resistances..
1. NIFTY Tech.Analysis File
2. Bank Nifty Analysis File
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2. Bank Nifty Analysis File
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Nifty Intraday Update-II
Uploaded files at 5.50PM:
1. NIFTY Tech.Analysis File
2. Bank Nifty Analysis File
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1. NIFTY Tech.Analysis File
2. Bank Nifty Analysis File
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Nifty PreMarket View
Nifty left a gap @ 5077 to 5085 when it fell from 5309 to 4675.
This area also has significance in few targets such as
61.82% retracement of the fall comes @ 5067
An "abc" zigzag retrace @ 5090.
Holding "5000", Nifty may attempt these areas on the back of some big stocks.
This area also has significance in few targets such as
61.82% retracement of the fall comes @ 5067
An "abc" zigzag retrace @ 5090.
Holding "5000", Nifty may attempt these areas on the back of some big stocks.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Nifty closes above 50sma.
Download to view the complete file:
Nifty Tech File(02.03)
I would appreciate some feedback from readers on their observations of the charts and the same may be shared for the benefit of all. Last week "Rajeev Verma" did a commendable job.
"Viren's" MP analysis has been quite useful today with his 4980 to 4994 as decisive, finally resolving on the upside giving a handsome gains.
"Anandan" continues to provide directional ideas, leaving you to decide on entry & exits. And "Rajnish" has been sharing his experiences during market hours. And many more have contributed their observations and the maturity factor is quite impressive.
As you apply yourself steadily, you will find yourself making steady progress. Having capital to take minimum "two positions" will help you to either take "Positional & intraday" or "positional & part booking - reentry" strategies.
Nifty Tech File(02.03)
I would appreciate some feedback from readers on their observations of the charts and the same may be shared for the benefit of all. Last week "Rajeev Verma" did a commendable job.
"Viren's" MP analysis has been quite useful today with his 4980 to 4994 as decisive, finally resolving on the upside giving a handsome gains.
"Anandan" continues to provide directional ideas, leaving you to decide on entry & exits. And "Rajnish" has been sharing his experiences during market hours. And many more have contributed their observations and the maturity factor is quite impressive.
As you apply yourself steadily, you will find yourself making steady progress. Having capital to take minimum "two positions" will help you to either take "Positional & intraday" or "positional & part booking - reentry" strategies.
Nifty PreMarket View
Why I am a Trader: by Dr.Brett Steenbarger
Trading requires that we be prepared and disciplined, that we continually learn and relearn.
Trading calls on us to be patient--and to be decisive; to believe in ourselves--and to be ever aware of our vulnerabilities;
I have learned to love the fact that market is always right. No matter how convinced I am of being right, I have learned to bow to the markets. Trading teaches us to be humble.
These three: Patience, Discipline and humility is what my critic emphasizes all the time.
Trading requires that we be prepared and disciplined, that we continually learn and relearn.
Trading calls on us to be patient--and to be decisive; to believe in ourselves--and to be ever aware of our vulnerabilities;
I have learned to love the fact that market is always right. No matter how convinced I am of being right, I have learned to bow to the markets. Trading teaches us to be humble.
These three: Patience, Discipline and humility is what my critic emphasizes all the time.
Monday, March 1, 2010
H A P P Y ... H O L I
Mythological SignificanceHoli gets us close to our religion and our mythology as it is essentially the celebration of various legends associated with the festival.
Foremost is the legend of Prahlad and Hiranyakshyap. The legend says there once lived a devil and powerful king, Hiranyakshyap who considered himself a god and wanted everybody to worship him. To his great ire, his son, Prahlad began to worship, Lord Vishnu. To get rid of his son, Hiranyakshyap asked his sister, Holika to enter a blazing fire with Prahlad in her lap, as she had a boon to enter fire unscathed. Legend has it that Prahlad was saved for his extreme devotion for the lord while Holika paid a price for her sinister desire. The tradition of burning Holika or the 'Holika dahan' comes mainly from this legend.
Holi also celebrates the legend of Radha and Krishna which describes the extreme delight, Krishna took in applying colour on Radha and other gopis. This prank of Krishna later, became a trend and a part of the Holi festivities.
Mythology also states that Holi is the celebration of death of Ogress Pootana who tried to kill infant, Krishna by feeding poisonous milk to it.
Another legend of Holi which is extremely popular in Southern India is that of Lord Shiva and Kaamadeva. According to the legend, people in south celebrate the sacrifice of Lord of Passion Kaamadeva who risked his life to revoke Lord Shiva from meditation and save the world.
Also, popular is the legend of Ogress Dhundhi who used to trouble children in the kingdom of Raghu and was ultimately chased away by the pranks of the children on the day of Holi. Showing their belief in the legend, children till date play pranks and hurl abuses at the time of Holika Dahan.
http://www.holifestival.org/
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Bonding across the ocean
I stood in the airport, my eyes so full of tears that I could barely see my six-month-old grandson's face as I bent to kiss him one last time. My son, an air force career man, was being sent to Turkey, and he was taking his wife and baby with him. "He won't know me when you get back to the States," I said brokenly.
"Now, Mom," my son tried to comfort me. "It won't take you long to get reacquainted."
"How?" I wailed. "He won't even be able to understand a thing I say." I was referring to my heavy southern accent, which would be almost like a foreign language to little Damon when they returned in three years.
As the weeks passed, my self-pity turned into fierce determination. I would find a way to make a bond between me and my little grandson, no matter how many miles or how many oceans might stand between us. I bought a children's picture book, a blank cassette tape and a disposable camera. I popped the blank cassette into the recorder and read the picture book aloud, using the same tone of voice and accents I would use if reading to a child. When I finished the story, I spoke a few words to Damon, ending with, "Always remember that Grandma loves you very much."
"Now, Mom," my son tried to comfort me. "It won't take you long to get reacquainted."
"How?" I wailed. "He won't even be able to understand a thing I say." I was referring to my heavy southern accent, which would be almost like a foreign language to little Damon when they returned in three years.
As the weeks passed, my self-pity turned into fierce determination. I would find a way to make a bond between me and my little grandson, no matter how many miles or how many oceans might stand between us. I bought a children's picture book, a blank cassette tape and a disposable camera. I popped the blank cassette into the recorder and read the picture book aloud, using the same tone of voice and accents I would use if reading to a child. When I finished the story, I spoke a few words to Damon, ending with, "Always remember that Grandma loves you very much."
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