Saturday, February 6, 2010
Nifty PreMarket View
Within the "5th" wave(the final sub-wave),there are two views:
i.4950-4877; ii-4877-4912; iii-4912-4692; iv-4692...(4800-4825); v:......-4650.
OR i.4950-4877; ii-4877-4912; iii-4912-4718; iv-4718-4744; v:4744-4692.
My critic prefers the former.
Also there is the other "abc" set up.
Both point to an upside for immediate term with +ve div in "Hour"..
Only Aggressive can go Long(even Overnight)..
Conservative will go by the technical parameters.
Above "4800", it breaks out of the channel.
i.4950-4877; ii-4877-4912; iii-4912-4692; iv-4692...(4800-4825); v:......-4650.
OR i.4950-4877; ii-4877-4912; iii-4912-4718; iv-4718-4744; v:4744-4692.
My critic prefers the former.
Also there is the other "abc" set up.
Both point to an upside for immediate term with +ve div in "Hour"..
Only Aggressive can go Long(even Overnight)..
Conservative will go by the technical parameters.
Above "4800", it breaks out of the channel.
Friday, February 5, 2010
Nifty "may" halt @ 4675-4650 after a 600pt fall..
The oversold Nifty may halt soon in the region of 4630(Monthly low ema) or 4650(200sma). However, no confidence can be expressed of the quality of the bounce now.
Have to remind myself of the declining "Larger time cycle" technicals.
"Piyush Sharda" has remarked that I follow so many methods that sometimes it is confusing.
In reply to that, let me state this: I have summarised the methods in my last weekend "Technical Analysis" lesson wrap up. Till you gather experience and confidence, choose the trendline , trend following(Pivot points)& tech. table initially and then you may add to it the macd, stochastics combination and finally the most misunderstood EW, if you are as crazy as I am.
Have to remind myself of the declining "Larger time cycle" technicals.
"Piyush Sharda" has remarked that I follow so many methods that sometimes it is confusing.
In reply to that, let me state this: I have summarised the methods in my last weekend "Technical Analysis" lesson wrap up. Till you gather experience and confidence, choose the trendline , trend following(Pivot points)& tech. table initially and then you may add to it the macd, stochastics combination and finally the most misunderstood EW, if you are as crazy as I am.
Nifty Intraday Update-II
Here is a future's Chart:
If it is developing as a falling wedge, it may bounce off from 4680 - 4700 zone when it makes another low.
If it is a running correction, it may slip to much lower levels..A channel break will be an indication of "sub 4th" to be followed by a final 5th of this down move.(One view of 5 waves down, the alternative being much bearish).
If it is developing as a falling wedge, it may bounce off from 4680 - 4700 zone when it makes another low.
If it is a running correction, it may slip to much lower levels..A channel break will be an indication of "sub 4th" to be followed by a final 5th of this down move.(One view of 5 waves down, the alternative being much bearish).
Nifty PreMarket View.
A. If "1,2,3,4,5," is playing out, then "4th" got completed @ 4950 and now the "5th" is on targeting 4711(5th is equal to 1st...1st being 5309-5170=239)OR 4620(5th being 1.38 times the 1st) to be followed either by a 2nd wave retracing 38% to 50 % OR a new uptrend.
B. If "abc" is done (5309-5170-5293-4766) then, "x" completed @ 4950 and now another "abc" is unfolding. In such a scenario, an equality will target 4407(4950-543(5309-4766=543).
200sma @ 4640 is a crucial level if protected, "A" will play out.If not "B" for BEAR.
Looking for a positive divergence in Hour & Day will help us to Book in the next 2 or 3 days time.
B. If "abc" is done (5309-5170-5293-4766) then, "x" completed @ 4950 and now another "abc" is unfolding. In such a scenario, an equality will target 4407(4950-543(5309-4766=543).
200sma @ 4640 is a crucial level if protected, "A" will play out.If not "B" for BEAR.
Looking for a positive divergence in Hour & Day will help us to Book in the next 2 or 3 days time.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Nifty Intraday Update-II
"4910" happens to be the "Weekly Low Ema".
Nifty is managing to close above Hour Low ema but
unable to Close above Hour High Ema.
So Be Cautiously Long above 4890; ultra cautious below 4890.
Stop & Reverse @ 4860 or 4850.
Nifty is managing to close above Hour Low ema but
unable to Close above Hour High Ema.
So Be Cautiously Long above 4890; ultra cautious below 4890.
Stop & Reverse @ 4860 or 4850.
Nifty Intraday Update.
Pivot @ 4910 and supports @ 4840-4850
holds the trigger for both up & down moves.
holds the trigger for both up & down moves.
Nifty PreMarket View.
Make your trading plan with "Entry Price", "Target or a Trailing SL" and "Stop Loss" before "initiating" a trade. This will reduce anxiety and save money and earn in the long run. When in doubt, stay out.
When all the trends are in harmony, you can hold your positions confidently.
When a conflict in trends are in force( as it is now), you need to trade only for very short term gains.
Above all, know your time frame for which the "Trade Plan" was designed and do not overstep that line and close your positions within that time period.
I have added "Anuj joshi's" (Finance and trading made easy) blog to my blog roll as I find him to be focusing more on Prices alone with a simple approach.
I do not keep any blogs who have "Paid Services" except for "Indian market monitor" and "State of the market" as they have sparked in me the "Motivation" to do it on my own.
When all the trends are in harmony, you can hold your positions confidently.
When a conflict in trends are in force( as it is now), you need to trade only for very short term gains.
Above all, know your time frame for which the "Trade Plan" was designed and do not overstep that line and close your positions within that time period.
I have added "Anuj joshi's" (Finance and trading made easy) blog to my blog roll as I find him to be focusing more on Prices alone with a simple approach.
I do not keep any blogs who have "Paid Services" except for "Indian market monitor" and "State of the market" as they have sparked in me the "Motivation" to do it on my own.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Nifty at a critical 4950..
"17 Days old" downtrend is trying to find a reversal since last three days and a move past "4950" may trigger a buy signal. However, it will be entering the resistances @ 4970-4985 & 5000 (Psychological) & then the 5050(Week Ema).
And with the "Hour" likely to enter the "OB" zone soon(Not yet), the morning few hour action should be interesting. For the uptrend to continue 4880(5 sma) and 4905(5 ema) should hold during any corrective down moves.
Daily buy signal triggered with the closing above 4905 and now for a follow up and a close above "day high ema". If the upmove continues, "5050"(Week ema) will be the tough resistance.
And with the "Hour" likely to enter the "OB" zone soon(Not yet), the morning few hour action should be interesting. For the uptrend to continue 4880(5 sma) and 4905(5 ema) should hold during any corrective down moves.
Daily buy signal triggered with the closing above 4905 and now for a follow up and a close above "day high ema". If the upmove continues, "5050"(Week ema) will be the tough resistance.
Nifty PreMarket View
This is Nifty hour with 9hr Rsi.(Not 5 hr). It is in "Oversold" zone & a short term "intraday"reversal is possible.
Staying below 4865(Pivot) will keep the pressure on. Only a daily close above the "Day ema"(4893) will arrest the downtrend.. 4915/4935/4965 will continue to attract selling.
Staying below 4865(Pivot) will keep the pressure on. Only a daily close above the "Day ema"(4893) will arrest the downtrend.. 4915/4935/4965 will continue to attract selling.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Nifty continues down within the channel..
Trend is down below the 5 ema and Nifty traded below that ema when it broke 4925 in the morning , coupled with "ORB" break down. Is it heading to a new low to complete the 5th wave.
Though it looks so, it could still throw some surprises..
The below "Hourly Chart" shows the possibility of the 4th wave continuing for a day or two..
Nifty could not reach to "Day High Ema" and there was a huge discount to the future from the opening..and it has closed below "Day Low ema"(4845)..
Though it looks so, it could still throw some surprises..
The below "Hourly Chart" shows the possibility of the 4th wave continuing for a day or two..
Nifty could not reach to "Day High Ema" and there was a huge discount to the future from the opening..and it has closed below "Day Low ema"(4845)..
Nifty Intraday Update
Pivot(4882) has held so far @ 4885 below which 4869(Day Low ema) a support.
Resistances @ 4920-4940-4960(Day High ema)
A 60 point choppy range trading day..
Resistances @ 4920-4940-4960(Day High ema)
A 60 point choppy range trading day..
Monday, February 1, 2010
Nifty Intraday Update
After getting resisted by the "H.High ema", it may test the Pivot of the day around 4845 and any failure to hold that level will drag it lower.
Holding 4840-4845, may set a base for higher ranges 4880 initially and then 4910-4930..
Holding 4840-4845, may set a base for higher ranges 4880 initially and then 4910-4930..
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Applied Technical Analysis- A summary (Wrap up)
For all the learners & the experienced ones:
I want to emphasise that the study of the price behaviour of index and stocks with assistance from few methods is the one and only way to make money in the market. It is like going to the market place to buy something or sell what you have. But to get the best bargain, you need to understand the "demand & supply" for that product. More the demand, the prices will be bid higher and more the supply(with less people to buy) lesser will be the price. If you spend some time to figure this one out, you will be in a better position to "buy low and sell higher."
In stock market too, the same logic works. But how do you go about finding this "demand & supply"...Yes..by studying the prices bid in the recent past..how high it was bid., how low it went..and where the last bid closed. I have covered the most minimum basics of Technical analysis and they may be found under "Technical Analysis" in my label section.
Here is a wrap up of what has been studied:
1. Trend Following
2. Trendlines
3. Moving Averages.
4. Macd (Moving average convergence & Divergence)
5. Stochastics.
6. Tech. Table- Part.1 and Part-2. And the Tech. File.
7. Elliot wave.
Spend your holiday time & week ends to go over these study materials and practice them during market hours. The time spent and dedication shown will fetch you very satisfying results. Once you develop a "discriminating mind" to differentiate a trending market to a sideways market of different time cycles(week, day, hour), your expectations of the market will be so balanced that you will harvest like a seasoned farmer.
Just stay cool..Don't sweat it out. Simply try to understand the various forces at work. If you are relaxed when you are trading, you will make money. Anxiety has no place in this business.
I have selected the last 8 months of daily prices from June.09 to 29th Jan.10 to demonstrate here the discipline with which Technical Analysis could be applied in real time using our recent studies on the following 7 methods.
You may click on the charts to get the complete detailed messages.
1.Trend Following
2.Trendlines
3.Moving Averages.
4.Macd (Moving average convergence & Divergence)
The buy signals were generated when the indicator reached the "oversold" levels with positive divergences appearing in the hourly charts.(Not shown here).
5.Stochastics.
6.Tech. Table- Part.1 and Part-2. And the Tech. File.
7.Elliot wave.
As per this EW analyis, a 4th wave is on and the market would find a bottom in the region of 4650-4750 when it completes a "v'th wave.This 5-wave down could be a part of the 1st wave of the larger down move or a teperory halt to a corrective or end of a corrective which will be resolved in the next few weeks but suffice to state that a temperory bottom will be around the 200sma.
The combination of these methods virtually assures a stupendous returns to a disciplined person and these studies can be carried out on most stocks and indices.
There is no substitute for hard work and discipline.
Armed with the above tools, you may get rich slowly fairly in a faster time.
I want to emphasise that the study of the price behaviour of index and stocks with assistance from few methods is the one and only way to make money in the market. It is like going to the market place to buy something or sell what you have. But to get the best bargain, you need to understand the "demand & supply" for that product. More the demand, the prices will be bid higher and more the supply(with less people to buy) lesser will be the price. If you spend some time to figure this one out, you will be in a better position to "buy low and sell higher."
In stock market too, the same logic works. But how do you go about finding this "demand & supply"...Yes..by studying the prices bid in the recent past..how high it was bid., how low it went..and where the last bid closed. I have covered the most minimum basics of Technical analysis and they may be found under "Technical Analysis" in my label section.
Here is a wrap up of what has been studied:
1. Trend Following
2. Trendlines
3. Moving Averages.
4. Macd (Moving average convergence & Divergence)
5. Stochastics.
6. Tech. Table- Part.1 and Part-2. And the Tech. File.
7. Elliot wave.
Spend your holiday time & week ends to go over these study materials and practice them during market hours. The time spent and dedication shown will fetch you very satisfying results. Once you develop a "discriminating mind" to differentiate a trending market to a sideways market of different time cycles(week, day, hour), your expectations of the market will be so balanced that you will harvest like a seasoned farmer.
Just stay cool..Don't sweat it out. Simply try to understand the various forces at work. If you are relaxed when you are trading, you will make money. Anxiety has no place in this business.
I have selected the last 8 months of daily prices from June.09 to 29th Jan.10 to demonstrate here the discipline with which Technical Analysis could be applied in real time using our recent studies on the following 7 methods.
You may click on the charts to get the complete detailed messages.
1.Trend Following
2.Trendlines
3.Moving Averages.
4.Macd (Moving average convergence & Divergence)
The buy signals were generated when the indicator reached the "oversold" levels with positive divergences appearing in the hourly charts.(Not shown here).
5.Stochastics.
6.Tech. Table- Part.1 and Part-2. And the Tech. File.
7.Elliot wave.
As per this EW analyis, a 4th wave is on and the market would find a bottom in the region of 4650-4750 when it completes a "v'th wave.This 5-wave down could be a part of the 1st wave of the larger down move or a teperory halt to a corrective or end of a corrective which will be resolved in the next few weeks but suffice to state that a temperory bottom will be around the 200sma.
The combination of these methods virtually assures a stupendous returns to a disciplined person and these studies can be carried out on most stocks and indices.
There is no substitute for hard work and discipline.
Armed with the above tools, you may get rich slowly fairly in a faster time.
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