The wave counts are alright. However, there are other complex wave formations possibilities too exist. At such junctures , use TA methods like stochastics, macd , roc, etc as well as prices making lower lows. Our pivot low is 4904 NS..When ever that happens, weakness sets in..
There is no one method which can win for us and there are no rules.. Markets are dynamic and only experience and our willingness to admit our faults and learn from them will keep us growing successfully.
Always convert your observations into a tradeable plan. You are right only when you make money..Let making money consistently, slowly be your primary objective. When your study of the market is unclear on certain days with many possibilities, just stay away..Take a holiday..allow the market to show its hand. Patience comes in handy here. At the end of a 20-23 trading days in a month, if you can win 10 days and remain absent on all the rest, you will accomplish great many things. Life too teaches us to let go off certain unwanted emotions, issues.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Let go off that Losses..
I am deeply saddened by the loss you have incurred after making profits and despite your knowledge of Technical analysis.
There are paid services by some experts..You can try them. My blogging is an attempt to keep an honest observations of the market in a "Public way" so that others could share my experiences for their benefit. In this attempt, I have introduced this "Nifty recommendation" since 15.07.09.
"Conservative Trade": Only 3 trades so far. First with a profit of 405 points, 2nd with a loss of 29 points and the third in profits presently @ 132 points. This has taken just 45 days. i.e: 405 - 29 + 132 = 566 x 50 = Rs.28,500.This type of trades, though taking more time, keeps you independent and relaxed.You require "Patience" in good measure to sit through the time.
"Aggressive Trade": Many trades have been effected. But it takes up so much of my time and some days, I will skip these trades.This type of trade may make people dependent on me. And the intra updates become delayed sometimes and you need to refresh the page continuously which can distract your attention.
I will post in my blog something related to your mail. All I could say at this juncture is "Believe in your own works" and don't change your mind seeing the ticker prices unless it matches to your "well laid out plan".
I come across so many finding it difficult to make winning trades simply because they hear" too many voices" & too many views from "blogs & forums" and the net result is an unsettled mind.
I keep off from market people as much as possible. I don't want news , gossips & tips. I have gone through them & lost my entire winnings. So I know what it is to "Believe in oneself". In the market, there are no wizards but there are only "Self-reliant" people...people who believe in their own unprejudiced observations of the market and act on them however ridiculous it could be at that moment. If you can be honest in observing & listening to the market signals, you will, then, not hesitate to change your plan and trade them accordingly.
Disconnecting from the crowd is the foremost requirement. Then, finding a consistent method, strategies for different market. These qualities are called "Discipline".
You are capable of making winning trades. Believe in that fact. Now all you need to do is "introspect" on your losing trades and slam the brake consciously, next time such a situation arises. Like they say, saving/ cost cutting is also "earning". So stopping a loss is also "winning".
There are nearly 250 trading days in a year and many many years of trading ahead. Learn quickly the art of "getting rich slowly" as the opportunities in the market place never ceases as the waves in the ocean never subsides..
"Begin small & slowly, growing happens".
There are paid services by some experts..You can try them. My blogging is an attempt to keep an honest observations of the market in a "Public way" so that others could share my experiences for their benefit. In this attempt, I have introduced this "Nifty recommendation" since 15.07.09.
"Conservative Trade": Only 3 trades so far. First with a profit of 405 points, 2nd with a loss of 29 points and the third in profits presently @ 132 points. This has taken just 45 days. i.e: 405 - 29 + 132 = 566 x 50 = Rs.28,500.This type of trades, though taking more time, keeps you independent and relaxed.You require "Patience" in good measure to sit through the time.
"Aggressive Trade": Many trades have been effected. But it takes up so much of my time and some days, I will skip these trades.This type of trade may make people dependent on me. And the intra updates become delayed sometimes and you need to refresh the page continuously which can distract your attention.
I will post in my blog something related to your mail. All I could say at this juncture is "Believe in your own works" and don't change your mind seeing the ticker prices unless it matches to your "well laid out plan".
I come across so many finding it difficult to make winning trades simply because they hear" too many voices" & too many views from "blogs & forums" and the net result is an unsettled mind.
I keep off from market people as much as possible. I don't want news , gossips & tips. I have gone through them & lost my entire winnings. So I know what it is to "Believe in oneself". In the market, there are no wizards but there are only "Self-reliant" people...people who believe in their own unprejudiced observations of the market and act on them however ridiculous it could be at that moment. If you can be honest in observing & listening to the market signals, you will, then, not hesitate to change your plan and trade them accordingly.
Disconnecting from the crowd is the foremost requirement. Then, finding a consistent method, strategies for different market. These qualities are called "Discipline".
You are capable of making winning trades. Believe in that fact. Now all you need to do is "introspect" on your losing trades and slam the brake consciously, next time such a situation arises. Like they say, saving/ cost cutting is also "earning". So stopping a loss is also "winning".
There are nearly 250 trading days in a year and many many years of trading ahead. Learn quickly the art of "getting rich slowly" as the opportunities in the market place never ceases as the waves in the ocean never subsides..
"Begin small & slowly, growing happens".
Barter of Love
I was at the corner grocery store buying some early potatoes.
I noticed a small boy, delicate of bone and feature, ragged but clean, hungrily appraising a basket of freshly picked green peas. I paid for my potatoes but was also drawn to the display of fresh green peas. I am a pushover for creamed peas and new potatoes. Pondering the peas, I couldn't help overhearing the conversation between Mr. Miller (the store owner) and the ragged boy next to me.
"Hello Barry, how are you today?"
"H'lo, Mr. Miller. Fine, thank ya. Jus' admirin' them peas. They sure look good."
"They are good, Barry. How's your Ma?"
I noticed a small boy, delicate of bone and feature, ragged but clean, hungrily appraising a basket of freshly picked green peas. I paid for my potatoes but was also drawn to the display of fresh green peas. I am a pushover for creamed peas and new potatoes. Pondering the peas, I couldn't help overhearing the conversation between Mr. Miller (the store owner) and the ragged boy next to me.
"Hello Barry, how are you today?""H'lo, Mr. Miller. Fine, thank ya. Jus' admirin' them peas. They sure look good."
"They are good, Barry. How's your Ma?"
Friday, October 9, 2009
Nifty's weakness spreads to week..
Nifty has closed below 5 week average showing the weakness. Once this channel support breaks, larger correction may set in.As monthly too is in "OB" with week reversing from OB, the falls are likely to be sharper once it is confirmed. Market may throw us a surprise in the very short term but the upsides look quite limited with these kind of deteriorating technicals.
We are at cross roads here with 4905 and 5100(5060) as decisive break out points.(Allow for some errors +/ - 25 points) Selling into strength has been rewarding thus far in the past 1 week. Now, once the support levels break, holding may reward well.
This Tech. table & the pivot points have guided by showing the "creeping bearishness" into Nifty. With weekly macd having turned down, it is a matter of time before Nifty falls big..
We are at cross roads here with 4905 and 5100(5060) as decisive break out points.(Allow for some errors +/ - 25 points) Selling into strength has been rewarding thus far in the past 1 week. Now, once the support levels break, holding may reward well.
This Tech. table & the pivot points have guided by showing the "creeping bearishness" into Nifty. With weekly macd having turned down, it is a matter of time before Nifty falls big..
A clue to the END..!
Mother Market will help us over the next few trading days. So might the USD. This chart from tonight's STU shows that the USD is still in a down move, which appears to be an ending diagonal. It seems destined to get to the DX74.50 level.
The STU notes that a rally above its wave [iv] at 77.48 means the bottom is in. A strong rally off the bottom in the USD will probably somewhat coincide with a serious drop in stocks. Timing looks more consistent with a bottom in weeks not months, supporting Tony's count.
" Should this second zigzag, Intermediate wave C, also take on the same fibonacci 0.618 relationship as in Major wave A, then at SPX 1097 Int. C = 0.618 Int.A. Also, for Primary wave B, at SPX 1097 Major C = 0.786 Major A. Plus consider that we have two OEW pivots enclosing that level: SPX 1090 and SPX 1107. Finally a 50% retracement of the entire bear market is at SPX 1122, and at SPX 1125 Major C = 0.886 Major A, plus here we have another pivot SPX 1133."
Views Courtesy: Planet Yelnick
The STU notes that a rally above its wave [iv] at 77.48 means the bottom is in. A strong rally off the bottom in the USD will probably somewhat coincide with a serious drop in stocks. Timing looks more consistent with a bottom in weeks not months, supporting Tony's count.
" Should this second zigzag, Intermediate wave C, also take on the same fibonacci 0.618 relationship as in Major wave A, then at SPX 1097 Int. C = 0.618 Int.A. Also, for Primary wave B, at SPX 1097 Major C = 0.786 Major A. Plus consider that we have two OEW pivots enclosing that level: SPX 1090 and SPX 1107. Finally a 50% retracement of the entire bear market is at SPX 1122, and at SPX 1125 Major C = 0.886 Major A, plus here we have another pivot SPX 1133."
Views Courtesy: Planet Yelnick
Nifty Premarket View.
Market has held a low of 4970 for the last two days. Aggressive traders may use that as a bottom & trade.
5030-5040 has been a resistance for the past two days.
Break past 4930/4970 - 5040/5077 may give some momentum in that direction..
(I may not be available during intra day)
5030-5040 has been a resistance for the past two days.
Break past 4930/4970 - 5040/5077 may give some momentum in that direction..
Publish Post
(I may not be available during intra day)
Nifty-for Oct Series.
If an "abc" structure is to be considered, then the top is in. Best strategy would be to "Short or Write CALLS of 4900, 5000 on every spikes since there is a possibility of another high ..
I have posted many large cap stocks view here..
I have posted many large cap stocks view here..
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Nifty's clinging to the support line...
The contracting range (Marked in brown) is now at 4895 - 5060.
Friday's close below 4970(last 2 day's low & 5 week avg) will be the first bearish signal..And the trading range gets shorter by the day(114, 104, 71).
Weekly close below 5003 is bearish..So we need a + day for the bulls and a - day for the bears..
We continue to trade below weekly pivot "5056" most of this week and now below even the S1 5012 and the last weekly S2 is 4941.
Friday's close below 4970(last 2 day's low & 5 week avg) will be the first bearish signal..And the trading range gets shorter by the day(114, 104, 71).
Weekly close below 5003 is bearish..So we need a + day for the bulls and a - day for the bears..
We continue to trade below weekly pivot "5056" most of this week and now below even the S1 5012 and the last weekly S2 is 4941.
Nifty Intra day Update
At 2.35PM: SL triggered. Re buy @ 5013 with Sl 5005.
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At 12.55PM: Bought @ 5035 Sl 5020NF
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Booked out @ 5040.
To Re-enter at 5010-5015 with a Sl below.
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At 12.55PM: Bought @ 5035 Sl 5020NF
*************************************Booked out @ 5040.
To Re-enter at 5010-5015 with a Sl below.
Nifty Intraday Update
At 11.50AM: SL for the Longs raised to 5005
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Long @ 4978 with Sl 4970 NF
( Daily Channel bottom came to 4971 for the day, if you connect 4353 & 4577)
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Long @ 4978 with Sl 4970 NF
( Daily Channel bottom came to 4971 for the day, if you connect 4353 & 4577)
Nifty Premarket View
It could be a triangle 4th wave or a simple flat correction..Not going to be a bearish zigzag. So trade those points. Hold longs above 5080/5100 or from 4920-4940 as the main trend(week) is still up.
For "Siddu" ..Trade for a living.
Can trading be considered for a living...as a profession..as a major source of income..?
It is a definite yes. But then, Can you derive your major source of income as a professional sportsperson..? Yes, but you need to put in a tremendous amount of time, discipline, hard work and above all a lot of patience.
Just like in any other business, if you have a winning formula, stick to it. Do it consistently. You go around the "Temple City - Madurai" and live there for 24 hours, you could become a better trader watching those "ant like" nature of people there. They don't miss a thing when it comes to making money. Their enthusiasm is quite infective. Their hard work is quite admirable. Most of the street vendors have "never say die" attitude. I guess, all the traders are alike. If someone can make his living out of a 1000- 5000 Rs capital taking enormous risk on the street, Traders in dalal Street too can. If they fail, they have only themselves to blame and no one else. Traders on the street don't repeat their mistakes because they know the hard realities. Traders in dalal street generally have casual approach to "money making" and tend to repeat theirs.
So Change that approach, you can get rich slowly and steadily. Wait for those opportune moment to make your winnings. Play it low during corrections as NO ONE can get that right while it is on but go full throttle once the trend is clear. Leave the intelligence at home, just follow the market like a herd .. Doubters can never make it. Believe in yourself, your own past experience will provide riches unimaginable.
Know your trade..So learn all the basics and methods and leave them to the analysts. Use only that works for you.
Consistent work, patience and a calm temperament and sticking to your plan/ method is a sure shot to Success. Talk less about your trades - Secrecy begets success.
(Live with a trader's family and know that they are so easy going with the life but "steadfast in their seriousness to their trade")
It is a definite yes. But then, Can you derive your major source of income as a professional sportsperson..? Yes, but you need to put in a tremendous amount of time, discipline, hard work and above all a lot of patience.
Just like in any other business, if you have a winning formula, stick to it. Do it consistently. You go around the "Temple City - Madurai" and live there for 24 hours, you could become a better trader watching those "ant like" nature of people there. They don't miss a thing when it comes to making money. Their enthusiasm is quite infective. Their hard work is quite admirable. Most of the street vendors have "never say die" attitude. I guess, all the traders are alike. If someone can make his living out of a 1000- 5000 Rs capital taking enormous risk on the street, Traders in dalal Street too can. If they fail, they have only themselves to blame and no one else. Traders on the street don't repeat their mistakes because they know the hard realities. Traders in dalal street generally have casual approach to "money making" and tend to repeat theirs.
So Change that approach, you can get rich slowly and steadily. Wait for those opportune moment to make your winnings. Play it low during corrections as NO ONE can get that right while it is on but go full throttle once the trend is clear. Leave the intelligence at home, just follow the market like a herd .. Doubters can never make it. Believe in yourself, your own past experience will provide riches unimaginable.
Know your trade..So learn all the basics and methods and leave them to the analysts. Use only that works for you.
Consistent work, patience and a calm temperament and sticking to your plan/ method is a sure shot to Success. Talk less about your trades - Secrecy begets success.
(Live with a trader's family and know that they are so easy going with the life but "steadfast in their seriousness to their trade")
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Nifty's correction continues..
If it is a 4th wave, it should normally consume 5+ trading days and it can breach the main channel @ 4890 by 20-30 points below and could reverse too..for the final up move. If it is a triangle, then we should see the contraction in the price range .. US markets should make up their mind today or in this week about any more upsides or continue the falls...
The "Diametric" scenario could have ended as a failure @ 5099 of last week or one more upside is possible. Break of 4920-4905-4890 will end the uptrend.
Below "5056"(Weekly Pivot), selling is seem and it happens to be today's High ema. Hour TA gave a sell at 1.00PM. Watch the weekly close below 5003. Correction has spread to day and threatening the "WEEK", a decisive week for a reversal..?
The "Diametric" scenario could have ended as a failure @ 5099 of last week or one more upside is possible. Break of 4920-4905-4890 will end the uptrend.
Below "5056"(Weekly Pivot), selling is seem and it happens to be today's High ema. Hour TA gave a sell at 1.00PM. Watch the weekly close below 5003. Correction has spread to day and threatening the "WEEK", a decisive week for a reversal..?
Nifty update
Tug of war At 5010-5026.
At 2.55PM: Hour TA and daily TA are pulling Nifty down. Watch for 4960 base.
***********************************************************
At 2.45PM: Nifty has built a good base here and moving up. A move past 5060 is a minimum requirement for the continuation of the uptrend that started from yesterday's low of 4920.
At 2.55PM: Hour TA and daily TA are pulling Nifty down. Watch for 4960 base.
***********************************************************
At 2.45PM: Nifty has built a good base here and moving up. A move past 5060 is a minimum requirement for the continuation of the uptrend that started from yesterday's low of 4920.
Nifty Tech Table update.
Subrat's quiery:
Nifty's hour indicates some weakness. by closing below High ema.
Nifty struggled most of the early session to stay above 5063(Day High ema presuming for a high of 5095)
Looks like the correction continues. Presently it is rallying up which will shoe its inherent weakness or strength.
4950 is a very critical support.
Nifty's hour indicates some weakness. by closing below High ema.
Nifty struggled most of the early session to stay above 5063(Day High ema presuming for a high of 5095)
Looks like the correction continues. Presently it is rallying up which will shoe its inherent weakness or strength.
4950 is a very critical support.
Bank Nifty views.
Bank Nifty's intra support may be around 8750.
****************************************************************
Bank Nifty is relatively bullish and so made a new high compared to Nifty. However it is still in a broad band of trading range 8550 to 8950.
It is likely to retracing the intra fall of 8963 to 8790.
50% @ 8877 & 62% @ 8897 are the ideal levels to sell it if the trading the range continues.Trade long with SL @ 8790 or wait to sell higher.
I do not follow Bank Nifty and the views are based on Nifty as well as Bank nifty's 5 day chart.
****************************************************************
Bank Nifty is relatively bullish and so made a new high compared to Nifty. However it is still in a broad band of trading range 8550 to 8950.
It is likely to retracing the intra fall of 8963 to 8790.
50% @ 8877 & 62% @ 8897 are the ideal levels to sell it if the trading the range continues.Trade long with SL @ 8790 or wait to sell higher.
I do not follow Bank Nifty and the views are based on Nifty as well as Bank nifty's 5 day chart.
Nifty Premarket view.
If the "4th" wave still continues:
Nifty's Pivot is @ 4994 and it is likely to stay above that.
Nifty's R1 @ 5068-With +ve Asian mkts, a gap up should take it there.
Nifty may consolidate in the 5050-5075 area initially.
Nifty's R2 is @ 5108- Nifty may attempt this or 5095 after a prolonged consolidation and weaken thereafter..
If it is the "5" wave & continues:
Nifty, after a gap up to 5068 or thereabout, may consolidate intra in a narrow band and head higher than 5099/5110 either today or tomorrow..
Possibilities & possibilities..never allows you to rest..
Nifty's Pivot is @ 4994 and it is likely to stay above that.
Nifty's R1 @ 5068-With +ve Asian mkts, a gap up should take it there.
Nifty may consolidate in the 5050-5075 area initially.
Nifty's R2 is @ 5108- Nifty may attempt this or 5095 after a prolonged consolidation and weaken thereafter..
If it is the "5" wave & continues:
Nifty, after a gap up to 5068 or thereabout, may consolidate intra in a narrow band and head higher than 5099/5110 either today or tomorrow..
Possibilities & possibilities..never allows you to rest..
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Nifty bounces off the 20DMA.
If the last 8 days range trading from the top of 5036-4904-5099-4921 is a consolidation, we should see higher levels. A follow up to today's reversal is required to change the daily trend to up.
Sharp reversal from below Week ema. Still below 5DMA & Day High ema. It could spend some time consolidating before moving higher.
"Jignesh Patel" has sent the chart below at 9.49AM which I opened only after market hours. This clearly proves the effectiveness of EW study for trading purposes.
Sharp reversal from below Week ema. Still below 5DMA & Day High ema. It could spend some time consolidating before moving higher.
"Jignesh Patel" has sent the chart below at 9.49AM which I opened only after market hours. This clearly proves the effectiveness of EW study for trading purposes.
Nifty on its 5th up.
5th waves are quite fast and furious..what we are seeing now. It should go past 5099 in the coming days to 5120-5175. Holding the 4904 pivot, taking support at 4920 after breaking the trendline(false...typical of a 4th), Nifty is headed up.
Nifty @ 20DMA
Nifty has just taken support @ 4920, its 20 DMA.
Nifty's 20 Ema comes @ 4891.
Will these levels hold..??
The last pivot low is 4904.
The last channel support from Mar.09 low of 2539 is @ 4865.
So we have short term being down with likely supports @ 4865-4900.
Nifty's 20 Ema comes @ 4891.
Will these levels hold..??
The last pivot low is 4904.
The last channel support from Mar.09 low of 2539 is @ 4865.
So we have short term being down with likely supports @ 4865-4900.
Asian cues..
As you can see from the chart below, Hang seng has clearly fallen in a 5 wave structure at yesterday's lows. A counter rally targeting a minimum of 21000-21100 is on which will unfold into an "abc" move..meaning with a pull back at some point during this uptrend. Similar moves will be seen in our markets too. So it's going to be a "bottom to top" kind of trading day.
Sensex views
The "ii" wave of the move from 15957 to 15368 is a zigzag. Hence, the "iv" from 17196 to... is most likely to be a flat(in a range of 17196 to 16495) or a triangle or even an irregular flat exceeding 17196 during this correction.
Channel break decisively will signal a reversal.
Channel break decisively will signal a reversal.
Monday, October 5, 2009
Nifty Intraday update.
Nifty touched our buy levels @ the open 4980-5010..Low is 5011 and in NF 4996. If you have bought, a confirmation of an intra rally will be a move past 5037NF.
***********************************************************
Dr.Saurabh wants to know how to find the "ORB":-
When Nifty opens gap down or up, and there is a possibility of a reversal, then "note down" the correct high & lows of the first 15 minutes(9.55AM to 10.10AM, it could be extended a bit too or reduced too..) and trade the break out direction.
For today: our buy level happens to be the low of the ORB and the confirmation was the breaking past 5037 in NF.(Future had a freak low quote and spot had wrong high quote.)
******************************************************************
***********************************************************
Dr.Saurabh wants to know how to find the "ORB":-
When Nifty opens gap down or up, and there is a possibility of a reversal, then "note down" the correct high & lows of the first 15 minutes(9.55AM to 10.10AM, it could be extended a bit too or reduced too..) and trade the break out direction.
For today: our buy level happens to be the low of the ORB and the confirmation was the breaking past 5037 in NF.(Future had a freak low quote and spot had wrong high quote.)
******************************************************************
Nifty Premarket View.
5030 is the "Hour channel" support.
Holding above 5005 , the possibility of a new high exists.
Ideal buying levels are around 4980-5010 on a gap down. However, watch the first 15 minutes range break out(ORB) and trade accordingly.
Nifty has not yet closed below 5 day avg/ema. Though booking out/exiting @ 5080-5100++ was advised on Thursday, today's range will add to that conviction. Upsides are limited to 5175. Break of 4904 will be the first confirmation for deeper correction.
US markets are positioned at the channel supports though European and Asian markets have decisively broken the trendline supports but oversold.
DL ema @ 4996 --DH ema @ 5054 are critical levels for the day.
Holding above 5005 , the possibility of a new high exists.
Ideal buying levels are around 4980-5010 on a gap down. However, watch the first 15 minutes range break out(ORB) and trade accordingly.
Nifty has not yet closed below 5 day avg/ema. Though booking out/exiting @ 5080-5100++ was advised on Thursday, today's range will add to that conviction. Upsides are limited to 5175. Break of 4904 will be the first confirmation for deeper correction.
US markets are positioned at the channel supports though European and Asian markets have decisively broken the trendline supports but oversold.
DL ema @ 4996 --DH ema @ 5054 are critical levels for the day.
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