Thinking Trader

I will post a story tomorrow as we have holidays ahead but I want to share one of my earlier posts and add something to it.
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I have known many traders (Businessmen who trade in goods) for years and it dawned on me very recently the stark difference between them and the Stock market traders.
Business traders do not talk about their daily/monthly earnings, they don't do any adventurous things, they just do the same simple things that fetched them money day in & day out.....

Nifty ends the week firm..

Individual stocks performances compel me to have the alternative count. Trending up comfortably above the 5-week average for the past 4 weeks. With macd also having turned up, more highs possible during the "Settlement week".

The immediate channel bottom comes @ 4920-4930 and that should be the SL for longs with target 5100-5150. Today's close has negated the -ve div in 14 day rsi but it exists in 12 day roc.
Prices are simply trending up and that is long..
The latest shallow correction resembles the earlier correction and Nifty is closer to the channel bottom. If it holds 4940, it will head towards 5100-5150 zone.
With this set-up, holding above the weekly pivot @ 4922 & trading above daily pivot @ 4963, Nifty should be able to move higher..

Elliott Wave for Trading..

As my file got deleted , "Sujatha" offered to send the EW file to all who have requested.(While I was wondering how to find the file, I received this mail from Sujatha that she has the file and she could help me out.. What a coincidence or "Providence") To make it easier for her, please send a mail to her with a request "Send me the EW Lessons PDF document" and she can just reply to it & attach the document. This will save her from going thru' the comments section, copy, paste, etc.

Kindly send your mail to Sujatha @:
koms2003@gmail.com

Thank you Sujatha....

You have a three day break from the market and you may use it to good advantage and this document is quite compact, comprehensive and easy to understand.

Let me also thank "Anil" for offering to send the documents and he has already sent to many.

Let us all just stick to the business in hand and resist from reacting to any kind of remarks. If we can't help each other by staying focused, it may ultimately affect our money making efforts. One of the reasons I succeed is by staying away from market specific talks..

Have a very productive week end and "IDD MUBARAK".

Nifty Premarket view..

My preferred view is posted in the Nifty weekly chart below after taking into consideration of many stocks price movements, divergences, overseas markets, etc.

There could be some more upsides in the next week prior to the settlement but a correction will set in till Diwali or a week or two later also and whether that is going to be deeper or sideways is not known now and might depend on world cues..So investments may be booked profits in the coming week and reinvested prior or post Diwali..(I suggest part booking).

Nifty Sold off @ 5000+ after -ve div..

Nifty PreMarket View.

The chart below shows the channel's high - low possible extents during this day's move. Accordingly, the aggressive trader can position themselves or simply "HOLD" the position for higher targets in the days to come.
This is not to suggest that the channel top will not be violated..it can and that is the advantage for the "HOLD" strategy. But a nimble trader (Only him) may be able to utilise the swings to his advantage. But so far the intra swings have been quite narrow. More actions are taking place in individual stocks. As long as no serious break down is not seen any stock, Nifty will keep climbing higher..

The sub divisions of the current wave from 4791NF is as below:
i. (or "a") 4791 - 4949 = 158 points
iii. (or "c") 4923 - on now targetting(4923 + 158 + = 5081 +)

Nifty leaves a runaway gap since 4786.

Larger time frame looks just healthy and pushing higher each passing day. As pointed by one of the readers, it does resemble a 3.iii / C.iii wave now. Even with a flat world mkt, we might continue the uptrend.

"C" can be just 0.618 times "A" too. So far prices are trending up with brief shallow corrections..And there is a small channel within channel for trading the very short term..
Hourly low & high emas have climbed up quite steeply..


An "ending diagonal" scenario as in many world mkts which doesn't have much upsides left and so its validity will be resolved in the next couple of days..Each upmove should become lesser in magnitude and accordingly the current "c" leg should not cross 5050-5091..(C being 4580-4889=309 points; e should be smaller than C)

Nifty Intraday update

Aggressive Trade: Creating Longs here..@ 4970

Nifty Intraday update

There is negative divergence developing in the hourly macd, rsi..BUT prices need to break below 4920 to confirm a short term reversal.. Any selling should have a SL @ 4950.

Individual sectors continue to go higher like steel, sugar, etc...

Nifty PreMarket view.

"4782" continues to be the SL for positional longs and the aggressive kind can keep "4825" as a SL and go long on any intra day dips. The more Nifty rallies away from the 4740 top, it suggests of the "Ascending triangle" breakout targetting much higher levels unless prices break the earlier pivot points such as 4780, 4580..

Nifty moves past 4889 but hesitates with OB

Two possibilities are given and both has equal probability..There is some "OB" as well as some -ve div developing..Will high light the same in the pre market view..

This is an " Ending Diagonal" scenario with "c" leg going on..can get higher before dropping to 4720 for "d" leg and then the "e'..(May or may not make a new high..)
With yesterday's reversal in the hourly towards the end, the daily has reversed again to "momentum" mode by closing above "Day High ema". All through the low emas on diff. time cycles have held so far.


7-legged Diametric heading to 4950-5100.

Nifty Intraday Update

At 2.35PM: Covered the short @ 4870 & bought @ 4870, SL 4860
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Aggressive Trade: Booked & Sold @ 4890

Nifty Intraday update.

Aggressive Trade: Long @ 4873 SL 4860.

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At 11.10AM: Aggressive Trade: Will close shorts soon as NS is trading comfortably above 4865, the earlier resistance."OS" intra should offer some corrections to exit...
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Aggressive Trade: BP @ 4865 & SOLD SL 4880.

Nifty Premarket view.

The range is 4855 - 4790 NF.. Hold the breakout above 4865NS or below 4782NS..

HOLDING above 4820 will indicate bullishness.

Nifty in narrow range ahead of a decisive move..!

Nifty trading Ranges on various time scale is likely to narrow down in the coming days. Negative divergence is visible in 14 day rsi chart. 20 Dma is likely to offer support incase of a break of 4780..

Since Nifty closed below 4830 on Friday, weakness continues with low emas offering supports intra day..Selling is likely to emerge above those high emas and buying is likely around 4735 - 4770 zone in case 4785 gets broken.

If the "end' action carries into tomorrow's open, selling may emerge at many resistances @ 4840-4860-4875 ..

Nifty Intraday update

Aggressive Trade:- Holding Longs for tomorrow(Bought @ 4795)

Nifty Intraday update

At 1.14PM:- Though it is trading above 4811, there is one more hurdle @ 4822-4825. So watch it there how Nifty handles that area..
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The time scale here is of 5-minute chart. Unless it changes the hourly trend which is down presently in the next 1 or 2 hours, the correction down may continue after a brief rally..
A firm trade above 4811NS is a min. requirement..

As I have mentioned in the earlier post as well as in the comments section, I am Long @ 4795 with a SL @ 4790 for a target of 4830-4845..Trade light or stay out as the spread is very low. If you must, go short below 4790NF.OR Stay long here with a SL of 4780NS.

Nifty Premarket View

10.20AM: If 4780 holds here, Aggressive go long.
Exit longs @ the open and sell into inta bounces..Break of 4791 is the first sign of short term weakness.
Selling around 4840-4870 and buying near 4795 with a very tight stop & reverse 4791 and covering the same @4760-4740...
Though Asian cues are weak, we have not yet closed below 5 day avg yet..
A tricky trading day..Trade light.