Saturday, September 5, 2009

Dreams that finally came true..!

Once there were three trees on a hill in the woods. They were discussing their hopes and dreams when the first tree said, "Someday I hope to be a treasure chest. I could be filled with gold, silver and precious gems. I could be decorated with intricate carving and everyone would see the beauty."

Then the second tree said, "Someday I will be a mighty ship. I will take kings and queens across the waters and sail to the corners of the world. Everyone will feel safe in me because of the strength of my hull."

Finally the third tree said, "I want to grow to be the tallest and straightest tree in the forest. People will see me on top of the hill and look up to my branches, and think of the heavens and God and how close to them I am reaching. I will be the greatest tree of all time and people will always remember me."

After a few years of praying that their dreams would come true, a group of woodsmen came upon the trees. When one came to the first tree he said, "This looks like a strong tree, I think I should be able to sell the wood to a carpenter" ... and he began cutting it down. The tree was happy, because he knew that the carpenter would make him into a treasure chest.

At the second tree a woodsman said, "This looks like a strong tree, I should be able to sell it to the shipyard." The second tree was happy because he knew he was on his way to becoming a mighty ship.

When the woodsmen came upon the third tree, the tree was frightened because he knew that if they cut him down his dreams would not come true. One of the woodsmen said, "I don't need anything special from my tree so I'll take this one", and he cut it down.

When the first tree arrived at the carpenters, he was made into a feed box for animals. He was then placed in a barn and filled with hay. This was not at all what he had prayed for. The second tree was cut and made into a small fishing boat. His dreams of being a mighty ship and carrying kings had come to an end. The third tree was cut into large pieces and left alone in the dark. The years went by, and the trees forgot about their dreams.

Then one day, a man and woman came to the barn. She gave birth and they placed the baby in the hay in the feed box that was made from the first tree. The man wished that he could have made a crib for the baby, but this manger would have to do. The tree could feel the importance of this event and knew that it had held the greatest treasure of all time.

Years later, a group of men got in the fishing boat made from the second tree. One of them was tired and went to sleep. While they were out on the water, a great storm arose and the tree didn't think it was strong enough to keep the men safe. The men woke the sleeping man, and he stood and said "Peace" and the storm stopped. At this time, the tree knew that it had carried the King of Kings in its boat.



Finally, someone came and got the third tree. It was carried through the streets as the people mocked the man who was carrying it. When they came to a stop, the man was nailed to the tree and raised in the air to die at the top of a hill. When Sunday came, the tree came to realize that it was strong enough to stand at the top of the hill and be as close to God as was possible, because Jesus had been crucified on it.
The moral of this story is that when things don't seem to be going your way, always know that God has a plan for you. If you place your trust in Him, He will give you great gifts. Each of the trees got what they wanted, just not in the way they had imagined. We don't always know what God's plans are for us. We just know that His ways are not our ways, but His ways are always best.

Friday, September 4, 2009

Nifty off the spring board built on 4580..!!

Inspite of huge choppiness during the week with a gap down on Monday, Nifty was able to stay above the 5 week average with a smart intra week recovery. Now for a follow up to new highs. "4580" has established itself as the critical number to be protected by the "BULLS"..
A smart recovery but still could not close above "Day High Ema". Once done, upmove should be faster. Closing below 4660 will put it back in the corrective mode.

Broken out of the corrective channel to be followed by a gap up & continuation or a sideways move & consolidation.

A good reversal after an "ending diagonal", heading into resistances around 4715 to 4740. If reacts from 4715-4740 zone, possible supports are 4660-4680 which then could set up an "inverse H&S" pattern for further upsides. Below 4640, weakness steps in.

Publish Post

Nifty Intra update-II

HANG SENG has made the break out as mentioned in the earlier post. It is trading @ 20350....

Aggressive Trade:-
Shorts of yesterday Booked out @ 4585 and Long @ 4585 and will Hold the same with Sl @ 4575.

Conservative Trade:-
Shorts of yesterday Booked out @ 4585 and Long @ 4585 and will Hold the same with Sl @ 4575.

Nifty-Intraday update

Moving down from the resistance of 4615-4625...

Nifty-Premarket View

A critical reversal day or at least a part of the short term bottoming day.

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Nifty holds 4580 again..

Hang seng is attempting to get back into the rising channel. A move past 19825 and then 19965 will confirm it. A break past 20150 will be a breakout. But if it falls below 19500-19425, that can cause serious damage. Persistently falling Shanghai has halted its downtrend after showing some "double bottom" in the last 2 days and showing some signs of a rally which might ease the pressure on the bulls.

Nifty's fall of the last 4 days is not deep and happening in a corrective kind of channel. Break out will be above 4660 . However, Nifty should not break the Major channel support(Connecting 2539 & 3921 lows) that comes around 4550 to keep these bullish possibilities. In short, I will close my shorts around these levels or lower and go long with a stop & reversal below 4520...
This table plainly speak of the deteriorating technicals for the bulls and the weakness underneath. A last attempt by the bulls can change it tomorrow if the "oversold" short term offers any initiative.

This move down from the '4743" top does not look impulsive but of a corrective type. A move past 4625 will bring it out of this down channel and clearing the "4650"(2 day high) will offer some bullish move ahead. On the contrary, if weakness persists, then a support might come around either 4580 or a bit lower @ 4550(day channel support). Only a break of 4550 will bring in more weakness.

Nifty - Intra Update-II

Aggressive Trade:- Shorts of yesterday Booked out once in the morning @ 4590 and resold @ 4640 and will Hold the same.

Conservative Trade:- Holding yesterday's shorts @ 4655.

Nifty-Intraday update

Nifty trading in a very small range of 4620 to 4645, break out will give some gains. Hourly is trying to reverse from "OverSold" levels. Nifty has bounced off from the support levels and most likely heading towards the resistance area(4660-4680). Break of 4620 will be weak.

Nifty-Premarket view

Nifty is expected to trade in a small range with a mildly positive Asian cues. So far the fall looks corrective in nature(as long as 4525 holds). Buy low around 4590-4625 and sell 4660-4685.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Nifty's correction holds near 4580..

Corrective channel supports @ 4560 and the resistance @ 4680. If the daily channel support of 4535 holds in the coming days, Nifty may reverse to head higher. So far Nifty has been trading above the 5-week average. A weekly close below that on Friday will confirm a sharper corrections. Stocks are still trading in a small range(as in Nifty of 4560 - 4745). A decisive break of 4535-4560 is required for deeper corrections. Sell on rallies continues in this corrective phase as well as book profits on short term profits too. A change in weekly set up will warrant a Sell & Hold strategy. Until then, trade the range.

Managed to close above "4600" indicative of corrections so far.


This is the short term possibilities. Correcting down in a channel. Opening moves will vary as per world market cues.

Nifty-Intraday update

Conservative Trade: Exited Longs @ 4655. Holding Shorts @ 4655.

Aggressive Trade: Long entry @ 4595 & Exit @4655 . Short @ 4655 & Holding with SL of 4660 (Close for the day)

Uptrend seen in certain individual stocks suggest this downmove as "Corrective" only. Huge OI in 4500 PUT suggest of a strong support closer to 4500.

Nifty-Premarket View

As discussed earlier, the daily channel supports come around 4505-4520.After a lower opening, some profit bookings may emerge. Use that bounce to exit longs and create shorts as the daily has confirmed a down with follow up selling and in all likelihood, weekly may also do so. Hang seng has distinctly broken below the major trendline of 6 months. So it is prudent not to hold longs but shorts.

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Nifty corrects again from 4700+

Channel support comes @ 4515. There are minor supports around 4560-4580. Today's selling was accompanied by increase in volume..That is not good. There were exceptions too, Maruti.
If 4560 breaks, then more possibility of a deeper correction to 4350-4400. After establishing strong resistances, Nifty is testing for supports...
Closing below previous day's low of 4635 is bearish. Next critical level is Day Low ema @ 4611.

38% retracement @ 4595 (almost achieved), 50% comes @ 4548 and the golden ratio(61.82%) comes @ 4502. Earlier supports of 4650-4670 will be big resistances now.

Nifty-Premarket view.

At 2.35 PM
Conservative trade: Bought @ 4600 with a stop & reverse @ 4580
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At 2.05 PM:
Conservative trade: Buy @ 4585 - 4605 with a stop & reverse @ 4580
Aggressive Trade: Sell @ 4655 with Sl 4675

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At 1.30PM: Stopped out @ 4715 (Prev. Low).

At 12.10PM: Closed the shorts @ 4720 and Long @ 4720.
If not able to cover shorts in the first 30-60 minutes, hold with a Sl of 4720-4740. Nifty may slide lower in the mid session and the shorts may be covered then. Expecting a range bound trading for the day. If moves past 4750 decisively, then reverse to Longs.

Expecting a range of 4650/4660 to 4610/4625. Dollar weakness is expected in the coming days and hence Longs are advised with proper Stop losses.

Monday, August 31, 2009

Nifty corrects from "OB" & -ve div. set up..

Short term weakness leading Nifty below 5 avg. Likely supports are @ 4565-4585 zone. Time correction also required for upmove to continue. If trades in the range of 4565/4585 to 4695/4725, it will fulfill the time aspect. Break below 4550(Channel support) would lead to deeper corrections. So trade this range presently.
Only a close above 4710 will bring back the momentum. A close below 4600 will signal deeper correction.


Prices weakened after negative divergences. Minor channel bottom comes around 4595 - 4620 zone, breaking the same may lead to 4580-4565. Retracements for the rise from 4353 to 4743 comes @ 4595(38%) & 4548(50%). Any bounces at this stage may be upto 4676(38%), 4689(50%), 4701(61.82%).

Nifty-Premarket view.

Looking at the world markets, a certain gap down which will confirm the negative divergences affecting the prices..Break of 4690-4700 would lead to a break of 4650(third time this level may not hold) and further below 4635-4580 or 4560.The time taken for this correction will give us clues to the nature of this correction...shallow to 4560-4580 or deeper to 4400 or below.

World markets - an overall view.

Overbought in the short term. breaking certain critical levels will put an end to this spectacular bear market rally.
Holding the same critical levels, this rally can still surprise many.