Saturday, August 29, 2009

Few coins here...few there - a vital part of Life..

The pickle jar as far back as I can remember sat on the floor beside the dresser in my parents' bedroom. When he got ready for bed, Dad would empty his pockets and toss his coins into the jar. As a small boy I was always fascinated at the sounds the coins made as they were dropped into the jar. They landed with a merry jingle when the jar was almost empty. Then the tones gradually muted to a dull thud as the jar was filled. I used to squat on the floor in front of the jar and admire the copper and silver circles that glinted like a pirate's treasure when the sun poured through the bedroom window. When the jar was filled, Dad would sit at the kitchen table and roll the coins before taking them to the bank. Taking the coins to the bank was always a big production. Stacked neatly in a small cardboard box, the coins were placed between Dad and me on the seat of his old truck.

Each and every time, as we drove to the bank, Dad would look at me hopefully. "Those coins are going to keep you out of the textile mill, son. You're going to do better than me. This old mill town's not going to hold you back."

Also, each and every time, as he slid the box of rolled coins across the counter at the bank toward the cashier, he would grin proudly. "These are for my son's college fund. He'll never work at the mill all his life like me."

We would always celebrate each deposit by stopping for an ice cream cone. I always got chocolate. Dad always got vanilla. When the clerk at the ice cream parlor handed Dad his change, he would show me the few coins nestled in his palm. "When we get home, we'll start filling the jar again." He always let me drop the first coins into the empty jar. As they rattled around with a brief, happy jingle, we grinned at each other. "You'll get to college on pennies, nickels, dimes and quarters," he said. "But you'll get there. I'll see to that."

The years passed, and I finished college and took a job in another town. Once, while visiting my parents, I used the phone in their bedroom, and noticed that the pickle jar was gone. It had served its purpose and had been removed.

A lump rose in my throat as I stared at the spot beside the dresser where the jar had always stood. My dad was a man of few words, and never lectured me on the values of determination, perseverance, and faith. The pickle jar had taught me all these virtues far more eloquently than the most flowery of words could have done. When I married, I told my wife Susan about the significant part the lowly pickle jar had played in my life as a boy. In my mind, it defined, more than anything else, how much my dad had loved me.

No matter how rough things got at home, Dad continued to doggedly drop his coins into the jar. Even the summer when Dad got laid off from the mill, and Mama had to serve dried beans several times a week, not a single dime was taken from the jar. To the contrary, as Dad looked across the table at me, pouring catsup over my beans to make them more palatable, he became more determined than ever to make a way out for me..

"When you finish college, Son," he told me, his eyes glistening, "You'll never have to eat beans again...unless you want to."

The first Christmas after our daughter Jessica was born, we spent the holiday with my parents. After dinner, Mom and Dad sat next to each other on the sofa, taking turns cuddling their first grandchild. Jessica began to whimper softly, and Susan took her from Dad's arms. "She probably needs to be changed," she said, carrying the baby into my parents' bedroom to diaper her. When Susan came back into the living room, there was a strange mist in her eyes.

She handed Jessica back to Dad before taking my hand and leading me into the room. "Look," she said softly, her eyes directing me to a spot on the floor beside the dresser. To my amazement, there, as if it had never been removed, stood the old pickle jar, the bottom already covered with coins. I walked over to the pickle jar, dug down into my pocket, and pulled out a fistful of coins. With a gamut of emotions choking me, I dropped the coins into the jar. I looked up and saw that Dad, carrying Jessica, had slipped quietly into the room. Our eyes locked, and I knew he was feeling the same emotions I felt. Neither one of us could speak.

Friday, August 28, 2009

Nifty breaks out with -ve div in tow...

Though prices have closed at the highest point for this uptrend, oscillators are showing weakness underneath. Nifty can continue its uptrend inspite of this weakness for another week or two. Whenever Nifty closes below 5 week average will be the confirmation for holding shorts. Until then trade the short swings or hold long positions..

Weakness only when trades below "Day High ema" which might rise to 4690-4700 for Monday.

It has stopped at the resistance of 4640. Any further upmove will suggest of a completion of running corrections and much higher levels. If not some consolidations in the coming days before moving higher. Though Nifty cleared the previous high of 4727, Sensex is still not cleared its previous high of "16002".
Based on the world market's view, the options will play out..


This negative div. if not negated with a strong upmove can correct towards 4650-4580 and still keeping the uptrend.

Nifty-Intra update

3.15 PM: Any intra shorts may be closed..

2.30PM:-4740 Resistance reached and reacting....Moving past 4750 will confirm this uptrend.


Nifty attempted to stay above 4700 thrice and has been sold off..Minor support @ 4650 below which 4635. Still it is a range trading market.
Sell level @ 4715-4740 came in the morning.And the support levels are approaching now for the day..
"IT Index" which has run up in a big way the last three days has shown distinct weakness since morning is dragging Nifty down..

Nifty-Premarket View

As very short term is "OB"(Overbought) and with negative divergences, I would prefer to initiate the shorts around 4715-4740 with a stop & reverse @ 4755.A correction is due lasting a few days upto 4550...
4670 is a critical level, break of which 4650 which has offered critical supports on two days will be the next key level.
Trade these points by merging the intra day technicals.

Trend remains up though it looks a bit stretched.
In summary, <4650 - 4750> are the key levels.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Nifty continues its narrow trading ways...

Nifty looks quite "OB" in the very short term. If it can correct from 4740 and keep the 4550 supports, another uptrend will gather strength. This is one possibility discussed here. Markets could decide to do otherwise too..keep getting higher. Daily close below 4650 will be the first sign of weakness.
Closing above "4635" on Friday will keep the momentum into next week. Very short term looks "OB" with some negative div. New settlement will start as per world cues and $ strength & weakness..

Holding "4650", Nifty could go higher inspite of -ve div.. Below 4650, it may fall to 4635, 4580.

Nifty-Premarket view




Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Nifty shying @ 4700

Nifty-Trade update

At 2.45 PM: Stopped out @ 4680 NF(Long @ 4668)

At 2.02 PM: SL for Longs now @ 4680 NF for the day.

At 10.50AM: S&R for Longs now @ 4635 NF

Holding Longs of 4668

S&R for Longs raised to 4670 NF

Nifty-Premarket View.

Nifty Future is expected to be in a range of 4630/4635 to 4680 in the early part of the trading and a move in either direction will determine the very short term trend change. 4560-4585-4600 are the supports. 4695-4730 is the resistance zone.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Nifty corrects intra, inches up..

Intra corrections & closing near the day's high, trending up above short term averages and poised to clear the previous highs @ 4727....Bulls are quite active. Beaten down stocks are seeing some short covering too and Reliance is poised to break out..
Bulls held the low emas well but could not close above Hour high ema at close..That is short term weakness only..Staying above 4600 is vital..

The only concern for the "Bulls" is the minor negative divergences appearing in the 5-minute charts. If corrects upto 4565-4585 again, it can gather some strength & move up. However, if the "Shorts" are more and Nifty trading closer to the settlement high can unsettle the bears......

Nifty - Intra update.

At 2.30 PM:- Bought @ 4668 NF ..Only SL 4650 NF

At 2.06 PM:- S & R Revised to @ 4668 NF


At 1.02PM: SOLD @ 4670
. S & R @ 4674 NF

There is a possible 5 wave completion here.The last vertical spike is typical of a 5th up.
It can make another high before falling. In such case , SELL after clearing the high with small SL.

If the highs are already done with, then sell at the break of 4645 NF.

Nifty-Trade Close

Closed the shorts @ 4640 & Long @ 4645, when the day's high cleared.
TARGET: 4670-4675. SL @ 4628.

At 12.35 PM: Covered the longs @ 4672.

Nifty-Trade & SL changes

Conservative trade: No Changes(Remain long @ 4600 with SL @ 4525.
EW / -& + Div trade: SL down to 4675 and profit booking raised to 4565-4585.

Nifty-Premarket View

I find the immediate decisive range to be 4490 to 4655. Trade accordingly.
i.e: Buy closer to the lows & Sell closer to the highs....
US markets are close to a top. China has started to fall again. Current bullish sentiment will receive a blow if Nifty starts to fall below 4490. So place your stops below that for longs. For Shorts, it is 4675(Courtesy Balanandan of Vipani Sangeetham http://marketsmusic.blogspot.com)


Monday, August 24, 2009

Nifty breaks out above 4615...

Any pull back may be limited to 4520-4550. A fall below 4500 will be bearish.



It looks like the hour technicals are nearing "OB" area. If it makes another high, a correction is possible.
The following chart is based on an EW expert Mr.Mustaq Khair. (http://www.shareanalyst.com/newsletter.htm). I did some time analysis and it falls on 26.08.09 10.00AM for completion of "F" leg.

Nifty- a New trade


At 3.20PM:-
After reaching 4656NS, it is showing weakness due to very short term -ve divergence.
"Short" in aggressive trade is initiated at 4655NF and a SL 4705NS is in place.

Nifty-Premarket view.

12.13 PM:-"EW/ + & - ve Div Trade"..Booked profits @ 4635 NF.
Conservative SL raised to 4590NS.
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11.30 AM:-"EW/ + & - ve Div Trade"..Trailing SL for longs raised to @ 4620 NF.
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10.12 AM:- Bought @ 4600 in "Conservative trade", SL 4535.

"EW/ + & - ve Div Trade"..Trailing SL for longs @ 4595NF.
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At 9.35AM:-Till Nifty clears 4700, the alternative scenario possibility exists. Booking longs initially during the euphoric rise.