Saturday, August 15, 2009

Truth alone can set you free..

I remember an occasion when I was travelling with my master. The station master in a town we were passing through came to me and said, “Sir, give me something to practice, and I promise I will follow it faithfully.”
My master said to me, “Give him something definite to practice.”
I said, “Why should one fool misguide another? It will be better if you instruct him.”
So my master said, “From this day on, don’t lie. Practice this rule faithfully for the next three months.”

Most of the employees of the railroad in that area were dishonest and took bribes. But this man decided that he would not take bribes or lie any more.
That very same week a supervisor from the head office came to investigate him and his assistants. The stationmaster answered the probing questions of the supervisor honestly. This inquiry brought serious trouble to his staff. All the employees who had been taking bribes, including the stationmaster himself, were prosecuted. He thought, “It has been only thirteen days, and look at the difficulty I am in. What is going to happen to me in three months’ time?”
Soon his wife and children left him. Within a month his life had crumbled like a house of cards from a single touch.
That day the stationmaster was in great agony, and we were some three hundred miles away on a bank of the Narmada River. My master was lying under a tree when he suddenly began laughing. He said, “Do you know what is happening? That man whom I instructed not to lie is in jail today.” I asked, “Then why are you laughing?” He answered, “I am not laughing at him, I am laughing at the foolish world!”
Twelve people in that man’s office had gotten together and said he was a liar, although he had been speaking the truth. They accused him of being the only one guilty of taking bribes. He was put in jail and all the others were released.
When the stationmaster went to court the judge looked down at him from the bench and asked, “Where is your attorney?”
“I don’t need one.”
The judge said, “But I want someone to help you.”
“No.” said the stationmaster, “I don’t need an attorney; I want to speak the truth. No matter how many years you put me behind bars, I won’t lie. I used to share in bribes. Then I met a sage who told me never to lie, no matter what. My wife and children have left me, I have lost my job, I have no money or friends, and I am in jail. All these things have happened in one month. I have to examine truth for two more months no matter what happens. Sir, put me behind bars; I don’t care.”
The judge called a recess and quietly called the man to his chamber. He asked, “Who is the sage who told you this?”. The man described him. Fortunately the judge was a disciple of my master. He acquitted the stationmaster and said,” You are on the right path. Stick to it. I wish I could do the same.”
After three months that man did not have anything. On the exact day that the three months were up he was sitting quietly under a tree when he received a telegram saying, “Your father had a huge plot of land that was taken long ago by the government. The government now wants to give you compensation.” They gave him one million rupees. He had not known about the land, which was in a different province.
He thought, “Today, I have completed three months of not lying and I have been rewarded so much.” He gave the compensation to his wife and children, and they happily said, “We want to come back to you.”
“No,” he said. “Until now I have only seen what happens by not lying for three months. Now I want to find out what will happen if I do not lie for the rest of my life.”
Truth is the ultimate goal of human life, and if it is practiced with mind, speech and action, the goal can be reached. Truth can be attained by practicing non-lying and by not doing those actions that are against one’s own conscience. Conscience is the best of guides.

-------excerpt from “Living with the Himalayan Masters” by Swami Rama.

HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY.

Friday, August 14, 2009

Nifty pauses after a steep rise...

My critic always say "Negative close on the last day of the week is considered weak undercurrent".
5-week average is fast rising and Nifty managed to close above that. Will watch for weaknesses in 4650-4680 zone as well as next week's close too. Weekly stochastics has turned down and macd looks toppish but price confirmation is required.
"4550" will act as a pivot for the coming week. Only above 4700-4730, bullishness will return.


It is poised move either way but the charts suggest a move up at the start if 4560 holds.
Above "4600" is attracting selling like the previous week kept selling above "4700"..


Nifty-Opening update

As Yesterday's high of 4614.15 has not been cleared now, the Conservative Buy above the same has not been triggered.
The actual high as per NSE Home page is 4613.35

Strength in many Stocks..

Follow up buying & holding certain levels are crucial for this new uptrend..
Will follow it up and update...





Thursday, August 13, 2009

Nifty follows up with a strong upmove.

Gapped up & closed above all short term averages. More such moves are possible..

"Week High ema" is the last hurdle for the bulls with a Friday close above that.
The strong momentum of yesterday continues without hesitation..

Two possible scenarios..4700 becomes the critical point.

Nifty-Intraday Update

Aggressive trade:- S&R @ 4512(Long) triggered in the morning will be closed @ 4595-4605 area and a "sell" is being initiated here with a SL of 4630.

Nifty's intra day update

Tony's Commentary from his blog Elliott wave lives on
"Since FOMC days are often retraced the next day, and the SPX did not make a new high. We are maintaining the Intermediate wave A labeling on the hourly chart. This bear market Primary wave B rally remains a tricky market to track."

4560-4580 is a resistance point...as of now.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Nifty's short term turns up with a completed "5"..

4360-4400 has offered supports in the last 3 days . Now Nifty may attempt to go higher towards 4510-4550-4600..Any weakness from these levels will put Nifty back into "Bear trend".(Presently in "Neutral mode".

Only the "Hour" charts have turned up. Daily & weekly requires more upsides to turn to "Bull mode".
A positive divergence resulted in a rally from the Critical "4360"..Buy on dips(4400-4430) towards 4520-4580.

Nifty breaks out of the channel after a "5"..

And there is a positive divergence to play long here.

Nifty's critical support 4380-4360 not breached yet..

Any fresh shorting may be done on a decisive breach of 4380-4360 levels only.Or on a 38% to 50% retracement for this fall of 4730-4391.7

Partial profit booking may be done here.


A 5 wave down may be over at this low..

Nifty weekly charts --Caution ahead...

Conservative trade: 5 day high is 4618 and so S&R is 4618. The same has been corrected.
These are updated around 5.00PM everyday.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Nifty's small pause in its downtrend...?

Presently I have marked a trading range of 4380 to 4580. Break of 4380 can lead to 4225. On the higher side only a break past 4610 can be considered for holding longs. Till then trade the ranges. Conservatives are holding "Shorts"
Only the "Low emas" have been crossed...a pause. Attempt to close above "Close emas" & "High emas" aren't successful.


These possibilities are confusing..Sell on rallies continues..

Nifty-Intraday update

Nifty's moves ahead.

This is one scenario that can play out if 4350-4360 holds and the "Oversold Hour" has any strength to bounce back...This could take a few hours, say by 1.00PM or so...Trading above 4475 may bring in some strength and above 4507, a short term reversal...So Initiate Long positions at lower levels..ofcourse, with some SL

Monday, August 10, 2009

Nifty continues downtrending with intra rallies..(OS)

Nifty gapped up @ 4553.6(Weekly Pivot-4557) and fell to 4430 and bounced intra to 4509(Daily Pivot) and fell to 4399(4380-4420-two swing lows).
There will be higher time cycle pressure on the index in the coming days. Watch the 5DMA(Blue) trending down in the daily chart below and notice the earlier move down from 4693 to 3920. Sell closer to 5dma and book profit as it moves away from the avg. Weekly channel bottom is @ 4225.
The last support left in the table is 4346(Week Low ema).

Trending down with "Oversold" readings in Hour Technicals..but no +ve div..

If it is a running correction, more severe fall may be expected. If it pauses and bounces from 4350-4380 zone, use the rally upto 4510-4550 to initiate "Shorts"..

Nifty's Positional trades.

With Asian markets "UP", the expected profit booking of shorts @ 4380-4420 may not materialize.

For the "Shorts" that are already created @ 4630 & 4571, hold the same with a SL @ 4660.