Saturday, August 1, 2009

Keep Your dream....no matter what..

I have a friend named Monty Roberts who owns a horse ranch in San Ysidro. He has let me use his house to put on fund-raising events to raise money for youth at risk programs.

The last time I was there he introduced me by saying, "I want to tell you why I let Jack use my house. It all goes back to a story about a young man who was the son of an itinerant horse trainer who would go from stable to stable, race track to race track, farm to farm and ranch to ranch, training horses. As a result, the boy's high school career was continually interrupted. When he was a senior, he was asked to write a paper about what he wanted to be and do when he grew up.

"That night he wrote a seven-page paper describing his goal of someday owning a horse ranch. He wrote about his dream in great detail and he even drew a diagram of a 200-acre ranch, showing the location of all the buildings, the stables and the track. Then he drew a detailed floor plan for a 4,000-square-foot house that would sit on a 200-acre dream ranch.

"He put a great deal of his heart into the project and the next day he handed it in to his teacher. Two days later he received his paper back. On the front page was a large red F with a note that read, `See me after class.'

"The boy with the dream went to see the teacher after class and asked, `Why did I receive an F?'

"The teacher said, `This is an unrealistic dream for a young boy like you. You have no money. You come from an itinerant family. You have no resources. Owning a horse ranch requires a lot of money. You have to buy the land. You have to pay for the original breeding stock and later you'll have to pay large stud fees. There's no way you could ever do it.' Then the teacher added, `If you will rewrite this paper with a more realistic goal, I will reconsider your grade.'

"The boy went home and thought about it long and hard. He asked his father what he should do. His father said, `Look, son, you have to make up your own mind on this. However, I think it is a very important decision for you.' "Finally, after sitting with it for a week, the boy turned in the same paper, making no changes at all.

He stated, “You can keep the F and I'll keep my dream."



Monty then turned to the assembled group and said, "I tell you this story because you are sitting in my 4,000-square-foot house in the middle of my 200-acre horse ranch. I still have that school paper framed over the fireplace." He added, "The best part of the story is that two summers ago that same schoolteacher brought 30 kids to camp out on my ranch for a week." When the teacher was leaving, he said, “Look, Monty, I can tell you this now. When I was your teacher, I was something of a dream stealer. During those years I stole a lot of kids' dreams. Fortunately you had enough gumption not to give up on yours."

"Don't let anyone steal your dreams. Follow your heart, no matter what."



Source Unknown

Friday, July 31, 2009

Nifty clears 4600 & into resistances..

Nifty entering the Major resistance zone of 4650 - 4740.
Big stocks finally made their moves breaking the 2 months consolidation..Now for the follow up action..


Nifty closed just at the major resistance line(Neckline of a huge H&S pattern).
Broke past the "4600" mark on a new settlement day, pulled back below that and rallied back up to 4650.

Trend remains "UP", though OB in the short term with some -ve div..Watch the resistances ahead as well as the channel support @ 4575.

Only Notable feature is the closing below the "Hour high ema". Daily, weekly are firm. If closes below 4600 on Monday, that will put pressure on Nifty.

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Nifty ends the settlement at its highs..!!

"6 Days" of upmove from 3980 - 4557 was corrected by a "8 Days" of upward correction. It is poised for further upmoves and the confirmation of the same will be a break of 4585-4600. Previous highest close of 4655 & the high of 4695 are the resistances.
Trading above the Pivot @ 4503 after an initial fall and a resistances @ 4530-4535, Nifty climbed higher on the back of "Short coverings". Now the setup has become "All Bullish"..

Inspite of all the intra day wild swings, EOD chart presents a calm picture of a trending Nifty supported by the Macd. A close above 4655 will give a break out and a subsequent pull back may be possible after a rally.

Hourl technicals bottomed out and gave a buy around noon. It looks poised for further upmoves.

NOTE: I have added a "NIFTY RECOMMENDATION" table on the top right hand side of the blog. I will be updating it regularly. I have done this exercise few years ago and found it to be quite useful. This helps in keeping a "Nifty position" without the hassle of monitoring it regularly. You may have to key in the S&R figures everyday to lok in the profit & to initiate a fresh trade.

I have taken the trades w.e.from 15th July 2009. The conservative trader has made much more than the aggressive one, implying "Make money effortlessly".

I will continue to monitor the same to prove a point that this is not a flash in the pan.

"You are free to fine tune it to book out partially and reenter on corrections" - At times, after booking out, market may not give a chance to get back..

Nifty's Moves Ahead

Being the settlement day, two way movements are possible. Resistances are just above 4500 and supports are @ 4450 and lower. If 4380-4420 holds, buying & short covering may emerge...

Dollar Index sharply reverses..

If it is a temperory reversal in Dollar index, then the fall may be limited to a few days only. And Equities should resume their uptrend subsequently.

Nifty & its constituents




Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Nifty breaks the 2-day swing low..

Breaking of 4530 led to the much required corrections. A 2-day low is broken. The 5-day low of 4421(today's) or the last swing low of 4380 are important support levels. Holding these levels, Nifty can rally higher and breaking of these may lead them towards 4250 initially.. Time taken in any move will alert us of future scenario..
Though the upward momentum lost being below High ema, the downward momentum was arrested by holding above Low emas. Daily TA is beginning to weaken. Now for a follow up..

Sharp fall followed by sharp recovery...and the Hourly macd continues to move down..Holding the previous swing low of "4380" is to be watched for..

Nifty's Moves Ahead

Narrowing Nifty range will break out decisively soon(4530 - 4600). Settlement considerations also having its impact.
Buy the lows with tight SL and also sell the highs..And hold the break out direction.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Nifty's narrowing range for a possible expansion..

Nifty was stopped on its way up with a sudden delivery based selling in "Hindustan Unilever". More such "delivery Selling" can keep Nifty under pressure..
Trading below 4550 is the first sign of weakness for tomorrow with supports likely to be 4530-4495.

"4580-4600" continues to be resistance and supports are rising everyday which may make the "Break down" easier..Trade with proper Stop losses..Or step back and allow the index to decide on the "range break out"..(<4600-4528>)

If 4485(10DMA) -4505-4525 area holds, further upmoves possible. Sofar, every intra day dips have been used for short coverings..Looks like "shorts are not finished yet..!!"

Nifty in a corrective triangle..!

Trading in a corrective range of 4505 - 4595. Decisive move on a break of this range most likely.

Nifty's moves ahead.

At 10.10AM: Hourly chart looks this way.. <4595 - 4525/4505> is the range

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Though Nifty has been showing -ve div in hourly charts, brief intra dips are followed by upmoves resuming due to firm daily, weekly strength. The same has been witnessed in the world mkts too.
As it is trending up within this channel, trade the channel bottoms & tops, if you can or hold till the channel is broken decisively.
Trade the major trend by buying into the dips and booking out partially on rallies.
"Shorts" are exiting on every dips closer to the settlement day keeping Nifty firm inspite of stretched technicals.
If 4600-4610 is breached, sharp upmoves may be in place.

Monday, July 27, 2009

Nifty corrects intra & ends flat with weak hour TA..

Another sideways movement..Nothing much to add

At 12.00Noon, Hourly weakness set in. However, Nifty found supports between "Week High & Day High emas".

Daily trend remains "UP", though upmove so far is quite sluggish.
Hourly -ve div is noticed. To be confirmed by a fall below 4558.

The negative div. that persisted till morning led to a fall upto 4528 and Nifty retraced 75% of the fall. Based on the world cues, it should correct further.

Nifty showing Negative divergences in "HOURLY" now..

Sgx Nifty was used today to manipulate Nifty or the traders at Singapore were taken for a ride..!!
Once again Nifty failed to sail through the 4560-4580 zone decisively and selling came at 4596 and a negative divergence is developing in the hourly charts. Caution is advised at higher levels.
Now the "Fri-Mon" lows of 4505-4528 is crucial supports for upmove to continue.

NIFTY'S Moves ahead.

At 10.35AM: If Nifty closes below 4580 at 11.00AM, more weakness will be possible in the short term.
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At 11.50AM: Closing below 4585 at 12.00Noon will bring in short term weakness.
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Larger trend namely Daily & Weekly likely to prevail over the OB hourly and will negate the -ve div of 5 minute time frame..