SS, Manoj, Yoda, Kpl...Thank you.

As I look back at my one year of blogging, I remember with heart full of gratitude the instrumental hands that shaped it up ,motivated and encouraged it with kind & critical inputs.


Sunil Saranjame of The Indian Market Monitor,

Manoj of Tryin2trade,

Yoda of Psychic Muse,

Kpl of VFMdirect.com

and friends like Piazzi, Lee(found bliss in his family lately) , abhay, fellow boarders at VFM Forum, so many of my readers who have interacted with their comments and the silent readers contributed to a spirited application to the market study in a consistent manner. You made me stretch my limits and you made me feel very special....

Thank you..Thank you...Thank you..

My critics...Shivaprasad and Jay are with me in this journey throughout and their inputs have enriched it further. Thank you.

Nifty's uptrend gathers momentum inspite of short term "OB".

Weekly is turning up. A move past 4400 & staying above it will confirm the trend change in "Weekly scale". Staying below 4400 can make the short term bears active.
Strength in at every step except for a brief correction at 3.00PM.


Break out in "Close" chart and a possible entry into +ve area by the "slow macd" will add strength.
Ahh..A channel break with a neat bull candle with the fast macd moving into +ve.


Channel break out. Is it a "d' leg. A gap up above 4400 will negate it. A gap dn or lower prices will keep it in contention.
You can spot the -ve div. But price hasn't weakened yet.

Managed to move out of the channel. Now to defend it by holding above 4335-4350 for further upsides. Short term "OB" & -ve div..persists.


Important Note: Writing about the markets is quite easy. I am detached from it. However, the moment you take a position, emotions cloud your judgement and ego too interferes. What should be done..?
Always have a method..your choice and stick to it inspite of a few failures. Be honest to your self.
Once you have taken a position, the best way to manage is to answer a "imaginary friend's"(Calvin & Hobbs) market's question.."What is the market doing & likely to do..??. Your responsible and honest answer to that question will reveal the truth and strategy to manage your positions. Cut your losses when it is manageable. That way, you stay on to win another battle.

Have a great weekend.

Nifty near to Resistances @ 4345-4355.

Only a decisive close above 4350 will break past the channel.

Booking partially atleast on the longs here is prudent.There is -ve div in the intra charts(5-day macd) and in 5 min charts.

Nifty's moves ahead

Positive world markets to keep Nifty in +ve upto 4300-4335 zone and selling is likely to emerge at higher levels.
Closing above 4250 will turn up the weekly TA.
A broader range of 4200/4245 - 4300/4315 is likely.
As the possibility of a daily "OB" correction is due soon, Selling above 4300 with a SL of 4355 for positional and trading the above range for day traders.

Nifty corrects from Hour-OB & 5.min -ve div seeking supports

Sold off closer to the channel. Seeking supports - 4190 - 4110. Below 4100, a deep cut..!! Watch out also for a break out above the falling channel..4340..
A weekly close above will bring some hopes & Cheers to the Bulls. A daily close below "Day-High Ema" will arrest this upmove.


Still within the channel and the daily stochastics is at "OB" area. If not break out now, more consolidation by a "slide down' is possible.
Has come out of the rising channel. Is it going to be a sideways correction of 4190 - 4325 or a downward towards 4110.

Closer to the Channel top. If 4150 holds, it may attempt 4300+ before correcting further down.

Nifty's moves ahead-Coming days...

The positive world mkts suggests the "C" wave up of the "ABC" of the Primary B wave. Or simply the 5th wave up.Area 4335-4370 is crucial.

A dollar index chart is also attached for correlation.


Since Oct.2008, the correlation between US $ and Equity markets are well co-related. Us $ is heading down for the final 5th wave which is likely to coincide with the equity hitting new highs and then a "Major Reversal".

Nifty closes above 20 & 50 DMA..

Option 1: Nifty moved close to 4500 on "Budget day" and falling since then...with a bounce on now.
Option 2: Nifty is trading in a band of 4600-3900 now, if 4350-4370 is crossed, may move higher.
Nifty moved up quite smoothly clearing all hurdles. The last hurdle being the "Week High Ema"(Which will rise further up beyond 4400 if more highs are made). Watch the close above "Day High Ema" for continuation of the upmove.

Slow macd turned up and Nifty close-chart @ channel res. A close above 4300 may turn things up.

Hourly macd comfortably moved into +ve and Nifty trending up in a steep channel. Next resistances are 4290-4335.

The short term close to the channel res @ 4315-4330 with "OB" readings..Partial profit booking & watch the channel's resistances..

Nifty's Moves ahead

I am posting the chart that I posted in VFM this morning for refernce purposes.

The expected intra correction ended with a sideways move of 4155-4125 till 11.30 AM.

Nifty rallies into the 1st resistance zone @ 4125.

Nifty has two options running as discussed few weeks ago and the same is playing out. This dilemma is not restricted to Indian markets but a worldwide doubt. Everyone is looking at everyone else. But it will manifest in the prices sooner.
Daily has turned up but the momentum will come only on a close above "Day high ema". Note how Nifty stopped just @ the day High ema @ 4130.

4125-4150 is a resistance zone & 4040-4080 support zone.

Hourly line chart is not conclusive but closer to the channel bottom..a break out of the channel will confirm a upside breakout. 4150-4250 resistance area..

Hourly D'Mark suggests of a move to higher levels...

Nifty's days ahead..

Having found supports @ 3920(Closer to the "ABC" target of 3933), Nifty is moving up from "Over Sold" levels. It could move up towards the channel top around 4275-4310 area. Its TA position at that time will indicate further weakness or rises.
4075 is a very strong resistance, beyond which 4125.

Nifty mildly rallies off from the 1st support area of 3933.

Daily trend remains down with brief intra rallies.
Many possibilities. Watch the channel resistances/ break out, if any.

Though the +ve div has been in place since it broke the previous swing low of 4146, price need to confirm by closing above 4050 in hourly chart. If it is an "abc" correction from 4693, a minimum target has been met.

Mild intra recovery from "OS" levels. An hourly close above the "Hourly High ema" and a daily close above "Daily low ema" can arrest this downtrend. Presently down.

Nifty's moves ahead