Untouched by it all..That is you..!! Jay Ho!!!

This is from Paulo Coelho's 'Like the flowing river'.

Cassan Said Amer tells the story of a lecturer who began a seminar by holding up a 20$ bill and asking 'who would like this 20$ bill?'.
Several hands went up, but the lecturer said:' Before I give it to you, I have to do something.'
He screwed it up into a ball and said: 'Who still wants this bill?.'
The hands went up again.
'And what if I do this to it?.'
He threw the crumpled dollar at the wall,dropped it on the floor, insulted it, trampled on it, and once more showed them the bill-now all creased and dirty.
He repeated the question, and the hands stayed up.

'Never forget this scene', he said. ' It doesn't matter what I do to this money. It is still a 20$ bill.So often in our lives,we are crumpled, trampled, ill treated, insulted, and yet, despite all that, we are still worth the same'.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

I wish "Slumdog Millionaire" wins many Oscars. Jai Ho!!!

Nifty may still be doing the 2nd wave of this 5th Down as an irregular correction..!!

As per the weekly charts, we still remain within the triangle. And the weekly trend has turned firmly down.
Some positive divergences appeared in 5-min & Hourly charts and a bounce is on. Daily is in "OS" region and so a short rally for 2 days if there are + ve cues.
This rally can continue upto 2780 and above which to 2805/2820. There are positive divergences in so many stocks. So keep that in mind while you go into trade on Tuesday.
A close below 2730 is required for a fast fall as mentioned earlier...
Lastly, with weekly trend also having turned down, play the bounces carefully and sell @ 2850-2860 if the rally reaches there with SL 2880.

Nifty on the verge of breaking "2750" aided by -ve world mkts..!!

US mkts did not rally as I expected and Asian mkts are trading 1.5-2.0% lower.

Either we trade this shallow range of 2750 - 2800 for another day, leaving a long weekend blank...!!! Or we might lead the way for the rest of the market & break lower.

We have been considering a counter trend rally for the steep fall from 2970 to 2738 and the rally has been quite shallow thus far and threatens to end anytime. Bulls are definitely losing and the settlement closing pressure will weigh them down.

Weekly trend, in all probability, will turn down with this Friday's close. Sensing the same, Sgx Nifty has fallen 42 points already. SO Trade the trend and hold it.

Nifty's counter trend rally enters 2nd day...and to 3rd tomorrow..

Nifty continues its feeble counter trend rally from yesterday's low of 2738. And the same is likely to continue up towards 2820/2840. Only a close above 2860 will provide strength to the bulls to chase the bears for"Short covering". With only 4 days to go for the settlement(Monday-Holiday), we are trading near the lower end of the range. Sell on rallies continues in the area of 2825-2845. Remember..corrective "c" up generally changes a bear into a bull..!!

A fall below 2755 will trigger a fast fall.

Nifty held above the Pivot point today well but the spread is very very small. And volumes too.

Nifty pauses to adjust the short term "OS" factor...

Nifty has managed to close above 2730(B-D Line) inspite of US Mkts but assisted by Asian Mkts. This resembles a pause and 2843, last week's close plays a important point besides the "2860" pivot of last many weeks.
Till Nifty manages to close above 2860, intra rallies upto 2860-2880 may be used to sell. Resistances for the up,move will start from 2820.
Stay with the main trend .
Today our Pivot 2794 played very promptly. Look at all those numbers and trade well.

Nifty breaks the channel, a close below 2720 will accelerate the fall.

Nifty confirms for the 2nd time the resumption of downtrend by breaking the channel(On Mon, it was the faster retracement of the last rise).

I have labeled the fall as 1st wave and a bounce to 2nd wave if +ve or flat world mkts. On the contrary, if the cues are negative, treat the last hour fall & rise as a running 2nd wave correction & we may fall bigtime as the "iii"rd of this wave down. The b-d line of the 4th wave triangle is positioned at 2725. A gap down below that will confirm the "iii".

Daily trend is down & midway. Though the hourly is over sold, Nifty can keep sliding down cos of the daily's downtrend. Only when the daily is highly "OS", look out for +ve div in Hourly charts.

5th waves are called speculatives as fundamentals do not support the fall. However, the fall will continue irrespective of the compelling valuations. Wait patiently for the down move to get stretched or tired or oversold or developing +ve div. In the meantime, prepare a list of the stocks you would like to buy...some high beta, some in favoured sectors(Power, infra), some in the lead sectors(Auto, Cement) and some in cyclical commodities(Oil, Metals,etc).

How this 5th will play out...as swift & ferociously, ending diagonal or a triangle..Few more days of price action should unravel that.

This week's close will confirm the weekly turning down. Use any minor rallies to sell. And get rich slowly.

Nifty's budget blues & stopped at the channel bottom.

EW:
Was it the "c" of the 2nd wave of the 5th down ended yesterday and we are in 5.3???
Was it the "e" wave of the 4th Triangle ended yesterday or one more "abc" pending?
Was it the "g" leg of the "X" (Bow Tie Diametric) ended yesterday??

All possibilities exist & more too, some bullish. Channel break should guide us. A faster retracement of the last rise from 2879 to 2970 has happened today suggesting a reversal. Follow up fall after short term bounce is to be expected. 2 & 5 day swing reversal has also happened.

TA:
Nifty closed below short term avg & reversing into downtrend with a last support being the 20DMA at 2820-2825. A bounce is due for short term if 2820 is not broken towards the 50DMA at 2880. If Nifty continues to trade within the channel, it may attempt to go past 2970. As channel trading has been quite useful during these corrective moves, a fall below todays low should be seen as a confirmed reversal.

With US mkts closed today, I suspect a bounce to happen tomorrow keeping most guessing??

A likely range may be 2825/2840 -2860- 2880/2920.