Your destiny is in your own hands.

Once upon a time, a long time ago, in a land far away, there lived an old man in a house on top of a hill. He was known far and wide for his intelligence, sensitivity and wisdom. His answers were always correct.
In a village below the hill was a group of boys who played together. Sometimes they climbed the hill to visit the old man and ask him questions, for which he always seemed to have the correct answer. Over time, it became a little game, with the boys continually trying to think of a question that the old man could not answer. But they were never successful.
One day, a boy named Aram called the others around him and said, "I have finally found a way to stump the old man. Here in my hand, I have a bird. We will go and ask the old man if the bird is alive or dead. If he says that it is dead, I will release it and it will fly away. If he says that it is alive, I will crush it, and the bird will be dead. Either way , he will at last have been proven wrong."

Excited about the prospect of finally catching the old man with a wrong answer, they hurried up the hill. The old man watched them coming and noticed the eager looks on their faces. Then Aram stepped forward and asked. "Old man, I have a bird here in my hands. Is it alive or is it dead?"
The old man looked at their mischievous, expectant faces and then quietly said, "Aram, it is in your hands."

The point and moral of this story is that almost everything that happens to you is in your hands. Your destiny is very much up to you. Your future is largely determined by yourself, by your own choices and decisions. What you achieve is the result of what you do , or fail to do , day by day and year by year.
The management guru Peter Drucker wrote, "The very best way to predict the future is to create it."
Hope is not a strategy for success.Your life is too precious and important to be left to chance.Decide today to create your own future.
(Excerpts from: "Create Your Own Future..by Brian Tracy")

Nifty pauses at 3100, trading within the channel..

Observe the 12 day Roc chart where in the indicator has reached the overbought area but has not yet turned down.There are two strong resistance points at 3148 and at 3250. The profit booking should start around that area. A likely support will be 2900 to 2920 area. Stock specific movements will happen with uptrend likely to go into a pause mode. Once market establishes a high in place for the coming week, a trading range may then be established..

Turn dates for the US Markets..

Based on astrology, the turn dates(Ready to Short) given by a blogger followed widely for US Markets.
With our markets overbought with negative divergences, we can start to sell tentatively initially. Watch out for the prices to confirm by breaking the channel again, closing below critical averages, etc.
Remember all the time our settlement date as our markets can continue to surprise..

Nifty breaks the channel briefly & rallies, still overbought..

Though Nifty broke the channel briefly, rallied back into the channel by 11.00 AM and rallied to the previous day's high.
Since the 2570 rally & after reaching 3076 yesterday, Nifty broke the 2 day low confirming a correction..The lower range of this correction is 2922 and the higher level may be 3076 or higher around 3100.
There are negative divergences in the short term charts but shortcovering keeps the Nifty firm..
Trade the channel..Book profits near the channel tops and reenter near the channel bottom with appropriate SL.
There are many wave possibilities..but the prices are trending up..Follow that.If we get some clarity on the EW, we will post it.
Stock buying in rotation goes on..ITC & NTPC which were quiet for a while broke out of their range today.
For the settlement, buy into those stocks which are trading near their Dec. month's high on dips..
If the EW labelling of Hourly chart turns out to be correct, more upsides possible.(SL 2922)

Nifty target achieved, Profit booked, short term weak..

BULL:- Booked profits on a rise from 2570 to 3076 after negative divergences in hourly and overbought daily stochastics. Will plan to reenter at 2750 to 2810 area. However, if it moves past 3045, will buy again for higher targets.
BEAR:- "ABC" correction of 4th wave up is over and the move looked tired and reversed today and closed below 5 day & 50 day avges.(But managed to close above 5 day ema)

In either case there is a down move expected..Today's is big bearish engulfing candle with higher volume. So traders should keep this in mind while watching for one more day of closing below 2975.(Already Nifty has closed below two days lows..Monday low is 2955 as it was a gap up day and we just stopped at this gap area.)

Hourly is in midway down..5 Minute is oversold. Any bounces will be for selling with appropriate SL. Any Gap down, watch the 2895 area for intra bounces.. Close below 2895 will confirm down

Nifty finds intra supports & rallies ahead (aided by short covering/ roll over)

Any weakness in prices owing to very short term negative divergences are getting corrected on intra day dips and buying as well as short covering emerges on those dips propelling Nifty to higher highs.
Many oversold stocks mentioned earlier have been rallying steadily and this settlement having started around 2755, dipped to 2570 in the first week and rallied nearly by 500 points may halt for a couple of days but will end this settlement on 24th Dec(Wed) near the highs due to short covering.
With the passage of time, the channel support keeps increasing and it is at 2940 and the channel resistance comes to 3100/ 3150 for Wednesday.
80% of the last fall from 3240 to 2503 comes at 3093.(To be watched out for..!!)This scenario only if it turns out to be a contracting triangle.If not, the rally may continue with periodic corrections.

Nifty's Triangle possibility..?

Highly respected EW analyst Mr.Vivek Patil has this triangle possibility for Market and this goes with the other 4th wave possibility too.In simple terms , Nifty has been trading in channels and the channel length has been diminishing at each subsequent move.(A Contracting triangle).Once this upmove ends("D" leg)(Has it ended..?),this channel gets broken and the next move down("E" leg)may end higher than 2570 and then if Nifty is able to retrace that "E" leg in faster time, then you will have a sustainable rally.(Same triangle possibility is talked about for US markets...we'll monitor this view progressively)

CONTRACTING TRIANGLE SCENARIO:-
A= 3648 - 2253 = 1395points
B= 2253 - 3240 = 987points
C= 3240 - 2503 = 737points
D= 2503 + 456 =2959
Or 2503 + 590 =3093..(We are nearly there..!!)
E= .....- .... =......(Likely to be near 2700-2750 area)

Nifty halted near 50 DMA, intraday corrections continuing

Nifty stops at 50 DMA., some profit booking and corrections sofar has been on intraday basis.
Hourly is abit stretched with some negative divergences. Daily is in uptrend.

Would someone post their views reading these charts as I am in a hurry. Will post more, if any relevant info. available.

A little knowledge goes a long way

Once upon a time there was a high IQ cheetah who couldn’t run at a top speed of 120 km per hour. As a result, the Thompson’s gazelles that he chose to chase easily outran him and he was never able to get hold of one. Thus, in order to survive, he was forced to catch rodents and frogs and other small animals which lived in the Serengeti.
Of course he had to do this surreptitiously because if any of the other cheetahs ever found out it would be terribly humiliating for him. “What’s the use of being the fastest land animal in the world,” he would often say to himself, “if I can’t even run down a decent high speed deer for dinner?”

So one day he went to a cheetah who was renowned for her astonishing speed and blurted out his predicament. “I have all the evolutionary adaptations that enable our species to run as fast as we do, including large nostrils that allow for increased oxygen intake, and an enlarged heart and lungs which work together to circulate oxygen efficiently. Also, during a typical chase when I can accelerate from zero to 100 in three seconds my respiratory rate increases from 60 to 150 breaths per minute.
"And, while running, in addition to having good traction due to my semi-retractable claws, I use the tail as a rudder for steering which allows me to make razor sharp turns, necessary to outflank prey who often make such turns. And yet”, he concluded lamely, “I can’t manage a top speed of 120 km an hour no matter how hard I try.”

“That’s interesting,” said the other cheetah who was staring at him wide-eyed by now. “Because you know, all this time I thought my nostrils were for only for smelling and my heart and lungs for keeping me alive. During a chase all I ever had time to notice was that the surroundings became a blur, my breathing increasingly deep and heavy, and by the time it’s over I’m pooped for the rest of the day.
"As for my claws and tail, I just try to keep them clean. But, like I said, this is amazing stuff. If we were to live together I could do the hunting while you can teach me things about myself and the world so that I too can become as knowledgeable as you.”
So the two hitched up and soon the Serengeti had two cheetahs that couldn’t run at a top speed of 120 km an hour and had to live off rats and frogs instead of gazelles to the end of their days.
Moral: A lot of knowledge is also a dangerous thing.

That reminded me of the first book I bought after entering stock market was "Technical Analysis of stock Trends" by Robert.D.Edwards and John Magee. It is considered to be a Classic on stock markets. You won't find a single Technical Analysis tool that is usually associated with all TA books..macd, roc, rsi, william %R, stochastics, etc. This book just talks about price behaviour, price behaviour and price behaviour with volume and nothing else. But the simple truth in this book is enough a guide if you can feel it, believe in it and your search will just end there. This is not to belittle the other TA but only to not to get obsessed with so many TA tools, etc.
Once the market starts , do what you have to do...Too much analysis & thinking during trading will end you like the cheetah eating rodents...